저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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Ray Dalio가 유럽(특히 프랑스) 국채 매도와 고금리 부담, 미국 부채 한계를 경고하며 주식 기대수익률과 채권 금리 간 완충이 줄어 고평가 주식이 금리에 더 민감해졌다고 지적. AI 관련 대형 기술주에 자본 쏠림과 1929년 유사 버블 신호(과도한 차입, 집중 투자)를 언급. 미중 기술·지정학 경쟁이 AI 분야 경쟁으로 이어진다고 봄. 구체적 지수 하락 시점이나 목표치는 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
If I had to think of only one thing before making a decision today... Decide where to invest the money in that matter. " What should it be?" This was the last question Boomberg TV host asked Radario, and he simply answered "no." How many [song] words are not stock names, not names? In the previous episode, we warned that America might face...
He said the debt crisis will last within 3 years in Europe. We're experiencing something similar, plus an AI bubble comparable to the period before the market collapse in 1929. Those few words will only truly help you understand... After listening to all of these stories first, [the song] hosted by Halinda In from the show Instai invites you to look.
In Europe, particularly in France, the market has recently experienced a sell-off. The heavy selling of government bonds has caused concern among many. That the damage would spread to other areas, according to the report. News reports in early October 2026 indicated that the yield on 10-year French government bonds surged to nearly 5%, the highest since 2002.
Meanwhile, public debt... France's GDP has already reached 119%, and the response was that Europe is experiencing the same thing throughout the country. And in many parts of the United States, people are living their lives. They always managed to get by by borrowing, but eventually they borrowed until they were in a financial crisis.
The ceiling, like the one France is facing now, would... We're stuck in a dead end because we can't borrow any more money. The money that was borrowed must be repaid, therefore the country has to... We need to tighten our belts to find money to pay off our debts. The government wanted to collect more taxes, but people...
They started moving out, whether it was moving out of France or elsewhere. Or moving out of certain US states and relocation. Leaving would only make the problem worse. They said it wasn't just France, but it was a problem. This is happening throughout Europe because of the excessive debt. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall.
Who cares? Those who held bonds as assets also suffered losses. If we compare the returns of bonds with... The stock market has shown that bonds have performed poorly recently. Much more than before, and those losses only exacerbated the situation. The more money they lose, the more they want to escape from debt.
These assets, especially when demand and... The supply is extremely imbalanced. The host asked if this was going to cause further damage. Yes, Myra replied that global capital markets are competing to attract [the market]. The money is there, and every country is issuing bonds for sale, but whether you look at the United States or any other country...
The bonds have all already incurred losses. Many people listening at this point are probably wondering the same thing as the host. Why is the debt market so full of anxiety, yet...? Stock markets, particularly in the United States, continued to rise. Okay, now how much longer can it keep going? Explain that stocks have a high expected return.
The stock price has risen more than bonds. It's normal. But every time the price of something goes up... Expected future return from the purchase. It will decrease, while bonds are the opposite. When bond prices fall, the interest earned from... It has increased, and recently both scenarios have occurred, leading to the current expected return.
The expectations regarding stocks and dividends are drawing closer together. Despite initially leading by a significant margin, this gap serves as a buffer. It's much narrower now if we try using the money... The company will be able to acquire it in the future and estimate its value per day. By using interest as a deduction, it can be seen that...
Expensive stocks are the main drivers of the decline, therefore, from now on... These stock prices will be more sensitive to interest rates than before. Even a slight shift in interest rates can have a significant impact on the stock market. More than ever, so the host asked directly: So at what level will the stock market crash?
They did n't give any figures, but said that they are currently in stock with... Bond yields are nearing their equivalent levels. Although no one knows for sure what the cash flow is... What will the future price be? But the problem isn't just that the cushions are disappearing. Because there's another layer of risk, which is...
A few stocks related to AI and the future of AI have become dictates the direction of the market. They all said they were starting to see the company. Giants who build AI infrastructure, also known as Hyperscalers, are starting to face problems because these companies used to mobilize resources... Capital could be raised by selling shares, but now we have to shift to...
They borrowed more and started hitting their limits, which... [Sound of inhaling] The figures from Aviva Investors are consistent, because by 2026, five companies—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle—plan to invest a combined total of approximately $800 billion, or about 26 trillion baht. And by the end of June, they had already issued bonds worth around $170 billion, or about 5.6-6 trillion baht.
But we believe the returns... Instead of shifting focus from giant companies that create AI to companies that make money from AI, because AI involves both those who create it and those who use it. Go and make a major transformation of your own business. And he started to see money flowing into the company.
This latter group is growing, whereas in the past the market has hardly... Without even glancing back. But while we see AI as an opportunity, the host pointed out that while AI does increase productivity, we... We're seeing bubbles together, a sign of... What are some signs of a bubble? The answer is these signals.
They often come together; he studies history, going back 500 years, because of what has happened before. Before another chapter of his life unfolds. This time, and the example that came to mind, was... It was in the late 1920s, before the market collapsed in 1929, that electricity was first available in homes.
For the first time, there was a refrigerator and light bulbs, and then there was a car. There are cars, airplanes, records, and movies. And there are innovative radio technologies emerging all around us. Everyone knows it will change the world, so everyone wants it. I placed a bet on it and said, "I'm going to buy it, and I will." I borrowed money to buy it, and this is the spot I was talking about.
It's important to distinguish between wealth and... Money, because wealth, is easy to create. But you can't spend it; you have to sell your wealth. You have to withdraw the money first before you can spend it, they say. Simply put, stocks that go up in price make you rich. The price did go up, but you're using the stock to pay for your house, aren't you?
That's right, when someone borrows money to buy a loan. A large amount of wealth that one day he would need money for. Cash, whether to repay a loan or for... They pay wealth tax if the government collects it. They would have to sell off all the assets at once, and that's it. That's when the bubble bursts.
Ray said he's seeing this kind of mechanism now. It means people buy without looking at the price, which is understandable. Because of new technology that doesn't yet exist in the future. No one knows for sure that you can't invest too little. Because they fear losing to their competitors in the end, everyone invests.
Too much has happened, a bubble is forming, which we must address. Keep an eye out for the risk of a bubble burst. The host then asked about South Korea and Taiwan. Attracting massive investment in AI is considered... Was it the wrong investment? The answer is, in terms of... The productivity was excellent, but here's what happened...
The main point is that it goes far beyond productivity. The money was then invested worldwide. Until problems started to arise, which serve as a good example of... A bubble that is beginning to form and become... That's its nature, but we think that's not quite there yet. Yes, there's a risk of it spreading throughout the system.
What I'm really worried about is the enormous amount of money piled up there. With few companies where the value of the stream is... The future of cash flow is highly uncertain, and right now... The price was already very high, so the lesson lies in the question. How can you effectively diversify your risk?
The example he gave was of a company that... We're changing our business model and doing better. Much of this can be either increased revenue or increased costs. A decline that is generally overlooked, but which was before. Getting to the one final answer I left you with, AI is n't just a game in the stock market because one of the five powers I use to view the world is geopolitics.
The host then asked if he saw the United States and China diverging. They are opposed in both technology and funding. The answer is throughout history and even today. Technology is both an economic and a battleground. Military and geopolitical battlefields go hand in hand. Therefore, all sides must win the war.
This technology allows for both types of fire, using different methods; China chooses to target certain areas. Robotics is only slightly behind in the development of leading AI models, by about 6 months depending on the model, but is catching up rapidly. And because many Chinese models are open source, meaning they are available for use and further development.
Because it's free and very cheap, people in China use AI more than in the US, while there's currently a debate surrounding it. Argument over whether to halt AI development or not, it's said that competition between these two countries is somewhat limited, but in other parts of the world, it's still the case.
They can compete to the fullest extent, so he sees an AI war as a real existence in terms of economic warfare, and it's not... It's currently limited to only two countries. The United States is telling other countries to choose whether... Whether siding with the United States or China, most countries in...
The world has not yet been forced to choose, and still... You can choose what you want. What we saw was the world splitting into zones. The first zone is the American continent, which they say is currently... More similar to the tribute system, it was a territory. Another area of US influence is Asia.
China is the main superpower, while the United States is gradually declining. Withdraw from other zones, which is understood within Asia itself. They say it won't be the same as what was believed before. That the United States would act as a counterweight to China in the region. Then Prey said the result would be that the world would be divided into...
There will be more regions, and some zones where both sides are still competing for territory, like in Europe. The Middle East, where we see China as a strong competitor, is a very good place to be, especially since a technology war requires a winner. After winning, the host asked who would win, to which we replied...
Frankly, he doesn't know because that's the most important thing. In his view, each party was managing things internally. Their own home is doing well. For Western democracies, the question is... The truth is, [the song] people in the country are still working. There is good cooperation between the rich and the poor.
The left and the right, and the issue of education... The United States has the capability for innovation and development. China has some excellent leaders. A vast number of higher education institutions combined. It is highly innovative and has internal controls. The country in question, which I would guess is on the Chinese side.
There is a risk that internal politics will play a role. Let 's make these things less disruptive. Ray also said that China has done very well in integrating AI into the manufacturing sector. It doesn't have to be the most advanced AI; just embedding less cutting-edge AI into factories and products is enough.
That's a huge advantage, and that is... The reasons why China's exports are expanding. He traveled all over the world, but even so, he couldn't say. No matter how this ends, the only thing is... He knew the key question was about the competition. Could this proceed peacefully and mutually beneficially for both sides?
Since even Ray can't say who will win. The final question of the show therefore returned to the contestants. The saying goes, if you have to think about only one thing, then think about it. What was the question? The answer was the risk from glass. The risk is the one you're putting your money into.
Holding onto any one asset too much. Especially very exciting assets like AI, which is the most important thing. Did you notice the few words left unanswered? From the beginning of the clip, it's not the name of a stock, nor is it a name. This is a warning, though, because if you try to piece the images together...
Excessive debt is causing bond yields to fall, providing support. The amount of stock held has therefore decreased, and vast sums of money are still concentrated in a few AI stocks. What day will people...? Many people needed cash at the same time, leading to a bubble. Break down the situation before deciding where to invest your money.
Ask yourself just one question: if what... The amount you held the most dropped in price that day. Just like you need to use cash, will you still be able to manage?
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