저자: RayDalio—영상내용기반,출연자정보제목·설명란미기재로소속확인불가시'RayDalio원저서내용인용'으로표기 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 중앙은행도 돈을 찍어 부채를 사들이다 손실이 누적되면 파산(음의 자기자본)에 이를 수 있으며, 그 비용은 통화 보유자 전원이 치른다. [부채위기 9단계 중 5·6단계 개요] 원저서 'How Countries Go Broke'의 9단계 중 5단계는 정부가 중앙은행에 의존하는 단계로, 기존 정책 수단(금리 인하)이 소진되면 중앙은행은 채권 매입(양적완화)으로 돈을 새로 찍는다. [금리 이중 구조와 악순환] 정책금리는 중앙은행이 정하지만, 장기금리는 채권 수요에 따라 시장이 정한다. 채권 매수자가 줄면 정부는 높은 금리를 줘야 하고, 이것이 상황을 악화시킨다. [조기 경고 신호 3가지] 첫째, 중앙은행 대차대조표가 계속 늘어난다. 둘째, 정부가 단기 채권을 반복 발행하고 만기가 짧아진다. 셋째, 중앙은행의 국채 보유 비중이 함께 증가한다. [중앙은행 손실 메커니즘] 중앙은행이 보유한 장기 채권은 금리 상승 시 평가손실이 나고, 지급해야 하는 단기 이자(예금 금리)가 채권 수익보다 커지면 현금흐름 적자가 발생한다. [Fed 사례 언급] 영상에 따르면 Fed는 2022년 말 이후 12분기 연속 영업손실을 기록했고, 이연자산 약 2,355억 달러가 계상되어 있으며 자본은 약 477억 달러 수준이라고 소개됐다(자막 기준, 수치 확인 필요). [역사적 사례 5건] 아르헨티나 1989년 전후, 페루 1980년대 중후반, 네덜란드 길더 1780~1796년, 튀르키예 2023~2024년 등에서 중앙은행은 연간 GDP 2.6~3.5% 수준의 손실을 냈고 인플레이션과 통화가치 급락이 동반됐다. [결론적 경고] 현재는 '적색 신호(Red Flag)'단계이며 '큰 적색 신호(Big Red Flag)'는 음의 자본과 손실 보전을 위한 추가 인쇄가 일어날 때다. 중앙은행이 돈을 찍는 것은 파산을 막는 것이 아니라 비용을 통화 보유자에게 전가하는 것이다. [투자 관련 언급] 특정 종목·지수에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 영상에서 확인되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
In reality, at this stage, hardly anyone cares. But for the reasons I'm about to explain, they should pay attention. This is what Radario said when he spoke about it. During the period when the debt problem spread to the central bank. An institution that can print its own money and doesn't seem to. There will be days when things collapse, yet we say that even central banks collapse.
It can dissolve too [the song], so the immediate question is the institution that... How could something that can print its own money possibly collapse? And if it actually collapses, who will be the one to pay the price? The answers to both of these questions lie in the two steps we are about to show you in this chapter.
Most people believe that central banks will never succeed. The collapse was due to the central bank being run by the only person in the country. That can generate money on its own, and when... The government or commercial banks are having trouble finding banks. The person in the middle is the last one everyone runs towards.
Most people therefore never think that one day, the end will come. Even this person could fall eventually. Ray is the founder of Bridge Water Associates, one of the largest hedge funds (H FUN) in the world. They have studied 35 major debt crises around the world over the past 100 years and found that: Countries that go bankrupt don't do so randomly.
But following the same nine- step path he described in his book, "How Countries Go Broke," before reaching this chapter, he briefly outlined the first four steps, beginning with the private sector and the government. The private sector accumulated excessive debt. A crisis arose, forcing the government to borrow more to cover the costs.
They went to bail out the government because its debt had skyrocketed. The government started having trouble selling bonds because of people. Things I used to buy, I started to not want to buy anymore, and eventually... A sell-off in bonds occurred, driving interest rates up and the currency depreciated.
The market is plummeting and the country's reserves are gradually dwindling. In this chapter, we will take you through steps 5 and 6, which are the stages where the problem spreads. The government reaches the central bank; step 5 begins with exhausting existing tools. Under normal circumstances, the central bank's primary tool is...
When the economy is in trouble, the solution is to lower interest rates. Policies to make borrowing cheaper and repayments easier. Debt eased, but then a debt crisis occurred leading to further interest rate reductions. The policy premium can no longer be extended, for example, if the target area has already reached 0%.
The only remaining tool is... Create new money and then use that money. Purchase bonds to provide lending within the system. The person in question can still afford to pay off their debts. In this context, printing money is what we mean. It does n't mean the central bank took over a printing press. Banknotes were actually printed, but what...
What actually happens is that the central bank borrows. Commercial banks' reserves were used for payment. Interest on very short-term loans given to... Commercial banks are giving back in return, but why? The government was forced to rely on the central bank. He explained that ultimately, the government was running away from the truth.
One inevitable consequence is that the government has to find the money. They still spend a lot according to their own policies, but... At this stage, the interest rate is what the market calls the government's term. Bond sales are often at prices higher than what the government would pay. The ability to pay is partly due to the sell-off of currency.
That currency and the country's bonds are, in that format. It's an automatic mechanism, therefore, when selling bonds. The market offered acceptable prices, so the government turned to... Find the central bank, and that's where the problem lies. Throw it into the central bank's field and observe that...
Here, there are two interest rates that are moving in opposite directions. The first option is the policy interest rate set by the central bank. The first interest rate is determined by a person whose rate has been suppressed to the point where it can no longer be lowered. The second is the interest rate that the market demands.
A government that no one dictates, but it happened. Based on the price investors are willing to pay for bonds. The fewer people buy, the more the government has to sell. Bonds are cheaper, and that means... That means the government has to pay higher interest rates to compete. The central bank lowering its policy interest rate is therefore helpful.
Not much will be gained as long as bond buyers keep disappearing from the market. We say history shows that... During times like these, central banks tend to create more money. And a large amount of credit was issued for the purchase. These bonds, which he views as a Red Flag or warning signal, but not yet a Big Red Flag or a serious warning signal.
Because central banks still have the power to control construction. Money and credit are in hand. But for the federal government, which is burdened with a huge debt... If the deficit continues, it will be difficult. The only way to escape the pressure is to avoid the pressure, because the higher the debt, the more difficult it becomes.
How much of the budget should be used for what? Other funds were diverted to pay interest and other expenses. The more trees there are, the more he says he'll drill into them. The next chapter will delve deeper into the financial status of the U.S. government. If we delve a little deeper into the details, it's the Government Housing Bank.
The central government will help to reduce the financial pressure on... There are two ways to overthrow a government or a large organization that is virtually impossible: the first is to acquire its assets. The straightforward method, and the second method, is to act as a guarantor. Or a guarantee that they will help if there's a problem.
The problem is that assets purchased during this period tend to... It was purchased at an unreasonable price. The economy, or simply put, buying things at too high a price. That's what ordinary investors are willing to pay, so the banks... The middle class therefore often incurs losses from these assets.
Subsequently, regardless of whether the debtor is at fault... Payments are delayed due to inflation eroding the value of the property. Due to rising interest rates, bond prices have increased. Okay, let's summarize this step by saying the damage is on the budget. The balance of power will be shifted from the government.
It 's at the central bank and it goes to everyone. I'm holding that currency, as I explained before. As mentioned in previous chapters, when there is demand for purchase... There aren't enough government bonds, so the central bank will have to choose between two options: the first is to let interest rates...
The premium went up to a point where people wanted to buy from him. We want to sell bonds at exactly the same price, which will benefit people. Borrow less and spend less, the economy will... The second way to slow it down is to print money and then leave. The central bank buys bonds itself, which expands its balance sheet through what is called Q, or quantitative easing, which is the purchase of certain types of assets.
They have a lot of debt, and they said that if... These things have been happening continuously for a long time. View it as an early warning sign, which consists of three points: the first is that these two options are being dragged out indefinitely, regardless of... Leaving high interest rates unpaid for extended periods or...
The central bank has to keep buying up debt. The second point is that the government has started issuing... Shorter-term bonds are a common occurrence. When nobody wants to buy long-term bonds. The government's loan term is so long that it's like someone asking for a 10-year loan – no one will grant it, so they have to borrow for only 1 year and then renew the loan every year.
The third point is when the total debt... Countries and the proportion of government debt that are held in... The central bank's holdings have all increased simultaneously. This is because the free market does not have enough demand. To buy those debts, according to the information... We have compiled the trends that central banks hold.
More and more bonds are being issued, and the maturity of the debt... Ever-shortening governments typically begin almost 10 years before a crisis occurs. Then, reverse course after the crisis has passed. And he also pointed out that according to the latest information, Central bank bond purchases are accelerating.
Rising as the maturity of government debt approaches. To shorten it quickly, let's go back to the main point. The basic principle is that when the system is working well, The borrower needs to borrow money, along with their willingness to do so. The lending amount of the creditor will balance out perfectly, but when...
The demand for debt in the free market is insufficient. The central bank and the federal government will then step in. The government will take on the debt itself instead of the private sector, which cannot bear the burden. This is possible while the private sector cannot. Because even in times of crisis, creditors still concede to the government.
Borrowing is easier with the belief that the government will. We'll definitely repay it because the government has banks behind it. The middle class, which can generate money, stands firm. The chances of the government defaulting on its debt are therefore almost nonexistent. The risk hasn't disappeared; it's still there.
Simply changing the appearance of the actual risk. It turns out that the central bank will create money and assets. Trusting too much to avoid anyone breaking their promise. This leads to high inflation, which means that... The creditor will get all the money back. That's true, but it's money that buys you less.
More than when the loan was given. I see this as a Red Flag, but not yet a Big Red Flag, because history tells us... That this can happen much more before the end. There's an imbalance between those who want to buy and those who want to sell. Debt will become a real problem this time around in printing.
This method of using money to buy debt began in 2008 and was formerly known as Death Montiation, or converting debt into cash, but only in a limited timeframe. This is now known by a new name: QE. In the United States, QE occurred in four waves, totaling 18% of GDP potential, where GDP potential is the size of a country's economy.
Production is achieved when operating at full capacity. The US's QE (Quantitative Easing) is still 5% of the country's total debt, compared to 16% of government debt in Europe. QE also occurred in four waves, totaling 30% of potential GDP, or 10% of total debt, and 36% of government debt. In Japan, Q occurred in three waves, but combined, it reached 95% of GDP potential, or almost everything the entire country produces in one year, and accounted for 22% of total debt and 46% of government debt.
Which means that almost half of them... The Japanese government debt was purchased with the money that... The central bank created it itself. When the central bank buys bonds... They have to bear the same risks as the banks. Commercial entities and general investors must bear the time required for purchasing.
The only difference between bonds is the bank. The central authority has the power to create funds for the purchase. Those debts and the authority to record the losses. The funds in the account are presented in a way that makes them appear unclear. It's the same as everyone else's. Now let's look at the mechanism step by step.
The step when the central bank buys bonds from... A commercial bank does not act as a central bank. Paid in cash but with an additional payment amount. The money is deposited into an account at that commercial bank. Deposited with the central bank, and the central bank... Interest must be paid on that deposit.
[The song] which we said wasn't much different. You're essentially getting your money back from the bank. Interest on deposits has returned. So now the central bank has two interest rate tracks to watch. The first is the interest rate that... Received from bonds purchased and held, which were... Locked in from the date of purchase, the second portion is the short-term interest that must be paid.
Commercial bank deposits fluctuate. According to the policy interest rate, commercial banks generally will... You'll immediately encounter problems if the interest earned is from the loan. The assets are less than the interest payable to the borrower. The same applies to depositing money in the central bank, if the interest rate is low.
The amount that needs to be paid to make deposits rise above the interest rate. The interest earned from central bank bonds would be deducted. Furthermore, the company has negative capital and cash flow. When interest rates rise, the price of the bonds held increases. The price would fall if the central bank used market accounting or the valuation of assets based on market principles.
The market price on that day will also show a loss from... Bonds are clear and similar to those of commercial banks. Or for ordinary investors, if their accumulated losses become too significant. The central bank will have more capital than it currently has. The negative net asset value, or Negative Net, is what we're talking about as a reality.
Almost no one pays attention to this step, but for the following reasons... I'm about to explain what they should pay attention to in step 6, when short-term interest rates shift. Raising interest rates would result in losses for the central bank. That has to be paid off to their own debts, which are...
It means that deposits in commercial banks are earning more interest. Premiums received from purchased bonds. They said this was noteworthy but not a big red flag until... The central bank has a significant negative balance of capital. It was important and mandated to print more money. To cover the negative cash flow caused by money.
The inflow from assets is less than the amount of money that came in. The money has to be used to pay off debts. At that point, it's a big red flag because it signals that the central bank is entering a death spiral. This cycle repeats itself, starting with the interest. The price rose to a level that created problems for the central bank.
And the creditors saw that problem, so... Therefore, debtors are reluctant to hold bonds when people are selling. Does selling bonds lead to even higher interest rates? The central bank would have to print more money. In order to buy more money, they had to print more. It devalues the currency, so people...
The more there is selling pressure on both the instrument and that currency. It goes up even further, which causes interest rates to rise even higher. And the cycle starts all the way back to the beginning again. And this is the answer to the question of which institution... How could someone who can print their own money go bankrupt?
Tell him what he meant when he said "bank." This is exactly what bankruptcy is like. The central bank was unable to find the money to pay off its debt. I received it myself, but I didn't default on the debt because... It prints money to pay for it instead, and once printed... Issuing large quantities of currency will cause it to depreciate in value.
And create an economic recession or downturn. An economic downturn accompanied by high inflation. Therefore, the people who have to pay that price are not just... The central bank, but also everyone who holds currency. That's also in their hands because nobody got cheated. While there is debt, the money held buys fewer things.
At this stage, central banks often find themselves in a difficult situation. It's a difficult situation because we're being pulled in from two directions simultaneously; on the one hand, policy needs to be relaxed. Enough to prop up a weak economy and sustain it. A government in a precarious financial position, but on the other hand...
One policy must be strict enough to avoid... This caused savers and investors to flee in panic. That currency, they say, has a classic character. This situation cannot continue unchecked, and it... It usually manifests in two ways after... The central bank has already purchased a large amount of debt.
Interest rates are rising, as are the prices of these bonds. That's an agreement, and the short-term cost of funds is... The central bank has to pay more than the return it receives. The result of the purchased debt is a loss for the central bank. A large sum of money resulting in negative equity is considered another red flag, but even so...
[The song] emphasizes that all of this is a Red Flag. It does n't yet mean that The Big Death Cycle is about to end. It simply indicates the financial health of the system. Things are getting worse and it's not over because the central bank is still... We can print a lot more money to supply the system.
Money and loans are provided to the system and used to make payments. There is one interesting point regarding its own losses. One example is in some countries where the government doesn't want it. The financial system should be characterized as a form of swindling. The federal government will be required to inject funds.
The money is being reinvested into the central bank, but the problem is... The government will have to find that money again. Whether it's through tax increases or cost-cutting measures. All of this increased borrowing fuels the pressure. " Squeeze even harder," he continued, explaining that when...
The central bank has bought up a large amount of debt; that's what it does. It reduces the value of the debt because it diminishes its value. The amount of money that the debt is promised to be repaid has been reduced. Go with it, and when the short-term interest needs to be paid. Paying more than the long-term interest earned on the debt.
The central bank would incur losses from its holdings and might even have... The equity portion can be negative. Initially, this was just a moderate red flag, which Reb said was the current situation at the central bank. Many of them have negative equity or are in a state of disrepair. They are equivalent in nature, and they didn't do it.
This significantly hinders the functioning of those central banks. This information isn't in our chapter, but if... View the central bank's financial report. The US, or the Fed itself, has seen this picture clearly since the end of 2022. The Fed suffered operating losses for 12 consecutive quarters, but the Fed did not record these results.
Those losses were deducted from the capital. It is recorded temporarily in the accounts as a defer asset. The Fed has recently returned to profitability, and the rate of consolidation has increased. While it has started to decline, by the end of the second quarter of 2026, this amount will still be around $235.5 billion, according to the Fed's reported funds.
To put it simply, there's only about $47.7 billion. This means that the recorded losses are higher than the funds. The Fed's capital is nearly five times greater, but the Fed is still working. It went as normal, which is exactly what we said. Central banks have ways of recording losses that don't look good.
As clear as others, but I warn you that when the results come out... If the losses escalate further, it could trigger a crisis. This vicious cycle creates much bigger problems, I tell you. There are two advantages to the central bank buying up debt like this. The first is that it creates loans. It's a belief that wouldn't normally happen and helps to suppress interest.
The first point is that interest rates are lower than they should be, and the second is that bonds lose money when interest rates rise. The central bank will be the one to bear the loss. Yes, private investors. Which leads to the question of what then... Is a central bank loss significant, and if so, what is it?
Why is [the song] important? My answer is that the central bank is losing money. That is less important than private equity investors. It's inevitable that it will result in a loss because private investors have to do it. The creditor still sees itself as trustworthy enough to... Providing loans while the central bank doesn't have to do so.
That's only when the central bank suffers heavy losses from debt. What he's holding is a signal that the system has moved forward. As we approach the end of The Big Dead Cycle, we see it as... A mid-cycle warning signal, which at this stage... There is no reason for a crisis to occur due to losses. Small to medium-sized capital doesn't have much of an impact.
Investors are dealing with the central bank, but when losses shift from... Going from small to very large will create demand. Cash is given to the central bank, which is the only way... The way to make money is by printing a huge amount of money. And that would put significant downward pressure on the currency.
The picture is that the central bank has to pay. Paying huge interest on one's own debt. To encourage savers to continue holding that currency. However, on the other hand, the central bank... The assets yielded only a small return. We hold onto it because we need to buy the debt to keep the market afloat.
The government then has to print more money to fill the difference between these two amounts. Temra has compiled historical cases where the result... The central bank's cash flow losses have expanded. There are five cases so large that massive money printing was necessary to cover the inflation: Argentina in the late 1980s (1988-1989), with average inflation soaring to 4,927% per year and a total currency depreciation of 97%; Argentina again in the later period ( 2019-2022), with average annual inflation of 49% and a total currency depreciation of 86%; Peru in the late 1980s (1985-1989), with average annual inflation of 246% and a total currency depreciation of almost 100%, or virtually nonexistent; the Dutch gidier from 1780-1796, with average annual inflation of 22% and a total currency depreciation of 80%; and Turkey from 2023 to early 2024, with average annual inflation of 84% and a total currency depreciation of 42%.
All five cases share one common characteristic: Central banks lose an average of around 2.6% to 3.5% of GDP annually due to cash flow losses, which we say is a significant loss in comparison. With a relatively small balance sheet due to costs. The debt ratio is very high, but the return on assets is high.
The second lowest point is that in all cases, a loss is paid. Funding is achieved by printing money instead of the government taking over. Firstly, it increases the capital of the central bank, and secondly, the printed money is not held in a fixed currency. That money is flowing out because savers have been hurt before.
Before that, and now we still have to face the real interest. The true low figure leads us to conclude that the loss is... These central banks are among the culprits. It caused the currency to depreciate enormously. When faced with a situation like this, ultimately it's the bank. The middle class was forced to print more money in order to...
To compensate for one's own losses and the losses of others. Others, even though they know it will put further pressure on the currency. However, if the situation worsens, this compensation may still occur. To put it bluntly, it means buying the assets yourself, and... Indirectly, it's done through guarantees and warranties.
The intention was to help with the property that had been purchased, which was usually bought. At unreasonable prices, central banks often... Losses from these assets, regardless of the source... Default due to inflation or interest rate default. It moves upwards, and that's how damage is transferred.
From the government to the central bank and then to... Everyone who holds that currency calls it some kind of signal. The signs that the system has reached this stage are as follows: The first signal is that the central bank's balance sheet is continuously expanding because it has to print more books.
Is the money given to the government to use, or is it used to extend the debt? To other organizations that are also having problems. Then we said that the central bank's actions during that period... This may be broader than just buying government bonds. This could largely extend to purchasing private assets.
For example, corporate bonds or even stocks, and also... This includes the ongoing measures to guarantee debtors' loans. A problem that is not shown on the balance sheet. It's always the case, but it's essentially the transfer of purchasing power from someone else. It's better to give it to debtors who are already in difficulty because...
The central bank and the government must take responsibility. The ultimate loss, for example, is... History records two cases; the first is the law. The Emergency Banking Act of 1933, enacted during the Great Depression, and the second case involved the Bank of Amsterdam backing the Dutch East India Company.
Both cases ultimately resulted in the printing of [the Emergency Banking Act]. The second signal is the sale of international reserves because... The central bank is trying to protect the currency at the same time. We also have to provide money and loans to people. The desired outcome is a mixture of ingredients.
The assets held by the central bank are gradually changing. Moving away from assets that the central bank cannot print or are hard to assess, to assets that... It's just a promise to pay in its own currency, or a soft asset hard assessed by the bank. The only things that cannot be printed are gold and silver.
Foreign countries which must be obtained through exports or... It was purchased, so its value hasn't decreased. According to the value of that country's currency, regardless of how it is printed. No matter how much money comes out, this is what you get. Central banks use them to protect their own currencies, while soft assets are merely assets that...
A promise is a right to get your money back. The government or from financial institutions in the country, such as: Government bonds or loans. The bank that is in trouble will be returned. That's the country's currency, so if the money... As the currency depreciates, its value will decrease. To put it simply, it's the central bank's vault.
Once filled with gold and silver. The country was gradually replaced by a written promise. It will be paid for by the government itself and by investors. It seems that the central bank has the capacity to protect values. Money is falling rapidly, so they're getting even hungrier. People rushed to sell that currency, especially in the country.
Since the currency is pegged, the central bank must... Accelerate the sale of reserves even further until... The point where the currency can no longer be protected. And then they said this phenomenon would be visible. This is much clearer in countries that use exchange rates. The static signal number 3 is when printing.
The money used to buy the debt occurs simultaneously with the sale of capital. Reserve a proportion between assets. The central bank cannot print its own debt. The central bank's share is the money that circulates. As it remains in the system, the level will gradually decrease, leading to... The central bank's ability to protect its currency.
Weakened even further here, this is where the difference lies. Between countries that peg their currency to that of another country. Allowing the currency to float is very important because... Countries that peg their currency tend to have a fixed amount of money in their system. Having more reserves to back it up, you'll still encounter challenges.
The problem arises more quickly when the ratio of reserves to... The money supply began to decrease, and countries pegged their currencies. Money tends to burn through reserves more than it burns in the long run. During the attempt to protect the currency's value. Going back to the initial question, the institution...
How could someone who can print their own money go bankrupt? Our answer is that the central bank didn't collapse. Companies that have closed down or defaulted on debts but have gone bankrupt. In its own way, it's a case of losing money to the point of having to print more copies. The money is used to pay off one's own debts, and every time.
Printing money that everyone has in their hands will depreciate. The price is going down, and that's why even at this level... Almost no one will pay attention, but everyone should. Because the ones who have to pay the price are people. Everyone holding that currency has a Red Flag, as we've listed in this chapter from the beginning.
The central bank is buying more and more bonds. The shorter maturity of government debt, coupled with banks... The middleman suffered losses, resulting in negative equity, all the way to the printing stage. The money was used to cover losses and sell off reserves. That 's what we use to measure how far a country has progressed.
Where are we on the nine-step path? These are steps 5 and 6 from Ray's book, "How Country Goes Broke," the founder of BridgeWater Associates, which studied 35 debt crises over the past 100 years. In the next chapter, we'll look at what happens when the cycle... This is where the massive debt cycle has bottomed out.
How will the big problem end, and will the country get back on track? How does a new tree grow, and what do you think about the bank? The central bank of the country where you currently hold the money. What step are you standing on?
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