Bill Gross Tells Investors to Play Defense

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결론: 2020년 9월 시점 Gross는 뉴노멀 이후 재정적자 확대와 연준·재무부의 사실상 통합(MMT)으로 금융억압이 고착되고 자산 버블이 커졌다며 방어적 자세와 레버리지 활용 배당주 전략을 제시했다. 거시 진단: 뉴노멀(저성장·저물가·세계화·인구구조)은 팬데믹으로 가속화된 탈세계화로 변화했고, 이는 디플레이션이 아닌 인플레이션 요인이라고 주장했다. 재정·통화: 미국 재정적자가 6조 달러 수준으로 거론되며 GDP 대비 부채비율이 100%에서 120~150%로 갈 수 있고, 연준이 재무부 자금조달을 MMT식 매입으로 지원하는 구조가 굳어졌다고 봤다. 이것이 장기적으로 바람직하지는 않으며 결국 인플레이션 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 금융억압과 버블: 제로 또는 마이너스 금리로 배당할인모형상 성장주 밸류에이션이 부풀려졌고, 은퇴자·연기금·저축자의 고통이 누적되어 결국 금융체계의 리스크가 될 수 있다고 경고했다. 투자 전략: 대량 부양책의 효과는 이미 상당 부분 반영되었으니 방어적 자세가 필요하다고 봤다. 저금리 환경에서는 담배주·천연가스 파이프라인 등 안정적 배당주 (배당 7~8%)가 유리하며, 차입금리(0~1%)보다 높은 수익을 레버리지로 취할 수 있다고 봤다. 다만 레버리지는 금리 인상 시 역풍을 맞아 약세장의 전조가 될 수 있어 안전하게 활용해야 한다고 강조했다. 출연자 발언 외: 가족(아들 문신) 관련 발언은 투자와 무관하며 가장 많이 화제가 된 부분이다.

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01. the new normal is one of the great calls of the decade there's steve major at hsbc gary schilling with his call on deflation and disinflation and then there was gross in ellerian in the new normal bill if you look back over 10 years to the advent of the new normal now you've got a pandemic overlay do we escape your new normal at any point oh i i think we began to escape it um and and and perhaps we will continue to do so you know the new normal was was based on a slower economy lower inflation uh incorporated globalization to some extent demographics i i think the demographic influence continues globalization has actually turned into deglobalization which is not deflationary but inflationary so that's uh been a change outside the pandemic and of course the pandemic has not um has not helped uh globalization it's actually accelerated deglobalization so to to some extent yes the the virus is changing things rather bill any number of things to talk about but i've got to go to your memo today where you talk about a six trillion dollar uh deficit we've heard this from other sources the great economist claudia assam has made clear we need much much more deficit coverage what does your world do what does the bond world do if we get out to three four five and six trillion dollar deficits well the bond world at the moment uh it you know it is a melding of uh of the fed and the treasury uh you know to my way of thinking this this sounds rather derogatory but the uh you know the fed is the dog and the uh the treasury is wagging it and to a certain extent if the treasury wants money if they want four or five six trillion then the fed will provide it through mmt and through through purchases which they've done now do i endorse that no is that a constructive uh thing down the road probably not is it inflationary yes we'll have to see but it hasn't been in japan but that we've melded fiscal and monetary and i think rather permanently now um yeah deficits can increase but gosh tom we're at 100 percent of gdp already and it goes to 120 130 140 150 and at some point uh as others point out if the if the fed stays out of it or or their influence then inflation is going to come back and in any case we've had inflation with financial assets and with commodities and so it's just come back in another form bill i remember the day where you recommended the procter gamble dividend and the bond world fell off its collective chair now we have permanence of gross financial repression i'm going to give you great credit for coming up with that concept do we have an asset bubble or bubbles plural because we have your financial repression oh i think so um and we have an asset bubble because interest rates are near zero and negative in uh many parts of the world and that at least to my way of thinking you know through dividend discount models and so on have inflated growth stocks and anything that you know have profits uh far in the future but are growing fast so so yeah but financial repression if we want to uh speak to that is something that's always been swept under the rug by not only by powell but by ellen and bernanke et cetera it's something that can be fixed at a later point because you know prior fed chair persons have uh either focused on inflation or focused on you know reinvigorating the economy and to the extent that that retirees and to the extent that pension funds and savers so to speak are being hurt well that can just wait but at some point it can't and i think we're beginning to see that i mean we don't have to talk about prudential or insurance companies or banks we can talk about mom pop on main street in des moines iowa where they have no more savings and they're not able to earn money on whatever they have left and you know the problem year by year uh is getting increasingly greater and i i think ultimately that becomes the uh the real and the armor of this entire financial complex bill jonathan here always enjoy your writing and you've never hidden your personality when you do write i do think however today when people read this investment outlook the investment calls within it aren't the things that are going to jump out at them it's the things you write about your family and ask you this question bill with a deep amount of respect for your career what's behind that this morning as you put this out well i've always wanted to let people know who i am um and to the extent that they know who you are and there's a a certain amount of honesty in in talking about yourself and your life then you know to my way of thinking it always translated into a an equal amount of honesty in terms of the investment world and um yeah i i i think it's always been an autobiographical type of thing i didn't want to write a book about my life but to a certain extent these outlooks you know outlined my life as as i've moved along and the current one where i talk about my son's tattoos um you know i think it's pretty interesting it's a topical uh you know piece of information not only for my family but for uh society and uh you know uh to the extent that readers like it fine if they don't like it and some don't then that's fine too well bill you know that many people are interested in your life and once again with a deep amount of respect for the family members that might read this and be terribly upset you do refer to your son as a disappointment and i'm trying to understand from you you look happy right now as we talk hugely successful and when people read this they might just be thinking bill sounds really bitter and unhappy what would you respond to them if they asked you that well i you know i talked about tattoos i said it was a disappointment in terms of tattoos and that uh you know that doesn't mean he necessarily a disappointment as a son i didn't have enough room and space for that but um you know i talked about my other two kids as well uh relatively tattoo free and um uh something funny uh to talk about especially the tattoo on the inside of my son's lip who yeah you know yeah lisa the issue here is his son didn't get a 49ers tattoo no that's the real issue and you're going to go get a tots tattoo i do want to say just going back to the investment thesis bill and the idea that you're making an analogy of the tattoo on the global economy that can't be removed for a very long time and you talk about how you expect the bulk of stimulus to have already occurred and that it's time to get more defensive what does it mean to get defensive with yields so low right now well a number of things and yes that i think the tattoo um you know as applicable to the global economy a tattoo is a discoloring of the skin and and certainly the global economy has been discolored by uh by the virus and things have changed in many ways as as you've spoken to you know certainly in the past half hour what does it mean uh in terms of investments and defensive uh yield types of investments i'm always amazed and i i don't discount the phenomena of the gross stocks and and the the fangs and the big five as i call them um and others because you know as real interest rates have declined in the u.s to amazingly 130 basis points much more than other countries then you know uh this dividend discount models would account for that and make growth stocks do much better than you know certainly other investments in the us and and and globally um but in terms of dividends i'm always amazed that others don't recognize that if you can borrow money at uh zero and one percent then investors can probably borrow it at two percent on margin then a a relatively stable seven to eight percent investment uh call it a tobacco stock or you know where i gravitated to some natural gas pipeline stocks with uh relatively firm dividends for this enormous and if you compound that uh you know six or seven percent a year relative to your borrowing rate well that's uh it's almost as good as a growth stock uh not as good as an amazon but uh pretty good a stable investor bill just real quick here are you saying that leverage is good in this kind of environment given how low rates are oh for sure uh you know you've got a lever and to the extent that leverage comes back and snaps you it does that when central banks raised rates and of course uh you know i don't think and others and uh most don't think that rates will be raised for a long long time so yes you've got to be able to borrow money you can do that with closed end funds that lever you can do that with you know margin at your own account uh whenever you lever however you want to do it safely because uh as we know uh ultimately leverage uh is destructive and uh the forerunner of a bear market as opposed to a bull market