Ed Yardeni: Inflation will continue to moderate

요약 보기

인플레이션은 전반적으로 하락 추세이며 CPI 근원·헤드라인 모두 약 2% 수준이라고 평가. 주거비(shelter)가 느리게 내려오는 것은 정상적 패턴. 연준은 서두를 필요 없고 금리를 성급히 인하하지 않는 편이 현명하다고 주장. 실질적 긴축 누적에도 신용경색이 없어 경기침체 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 장기적으로 국채 금리 약 4%가 정상이라는 견해. 시장의 급등(멜트업)보다는 정상적 강세장을 선호.

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01. yardi research president Ed yardeni joins us this morning Ed it's great to have you it's been it's been great to read your stuff lately you've been talking about your 5400 year end your 6K uh year end 25 if anything your concern was about a potential melt up in some irrational exuberance did either the print or the action yesterday change that I hope so I I I would not like to see a melt up I mean there are a lot of fun on the way up but almost by definition melt UPS imply that there'll be followed by meltdown so uh yeah I'd like to see this just continue to be a normal civilized bull market uh move up along with the earnings and uh economic surprises on the upside did you see anything that suggested that the data yesterday uh will interrupt an overall downward trend of inflation not the way I sliced and diced it uh I think the FED could look at it conclude that maybe uh they were smart not to move too quickly here and getting in confirming that the Market's right I think the Market's wrong I I think uh inflation is coming down but that's no reason for the FED to rush to lower interest rates when the econom is doing so well I mean why mess with success is is my uh motto here uh in thinking about the economy but when I look at the CPI numbers yesterday they weren't bad you know I I'm a big believer uh Carl of taking out whatever doesn't support my story and so if you take out shelter the CPI inflation rate both core and uh and headline were right around 2% the CPI is already at 2% it's just that annoying uh shelter component that's takes so it's taking a sweet time coming down right and it's that gap between Oar and primary rent or Oar and new rent is it taking longer than it should not really I mean it's uh it looks it's it's doing what it typically does so it's it's it's nothing new and I I think the f would be uh wise and all of us would be wise to take a look at what inflation is doing excluding shelter recognizing that market indicators of rent have come down rather substantially so I think we've made a tremendous amount of progress in bringing inflation down but again I I don't think the the FED has just tightened uh over the past two years I think they've also normalized everybody who keeps pointing out that the FED is raised interest rate by 525 basis points uh should really mention that from where from zero zero is abnormal rates are back to normal 4% is where the bond yield should be in my humble opinion given what the economy is doing with low inflation we I mean there were also some popups of inflation in medical insurance and transportation services I mean I get it that shelter was the big thing there food ticked up the FED does not want to see those go in the in the higher Direction at this point of the tightening cycle I guess the fear is if they continue to get evidence that they need to see more evidence to cut rates if they push it out and push it out and push it out does that start to have a more restrictive and more harmful impact on the economy and the market yeah I I don't necessarily think so and by the way I I think we can get kind of lost in the details when it comes to uh the CPI report I mean certainly you could pick out that auto insurance increased I think 20% year-over-year it was just just a high flyer um but uh I think that this you would recognize that shelter is a bit of a bizarre component that takes a while to to to come down but uh I don't view that the current level of interest rates uh is going to kind of create a a lagged effect a long and variable lagged depressing effect on the economy you know what really Us in the past has caused recessions has been monetary policy causing a financial crisis something to break causing a credit crunch which is then what causes recessions uh this time around the the the FED did in fact create a little crisis there in March of last year but within two days they came up with a liquidity facility and so we haven't had a credit Crunch and we haven't had a recession off of that I think the economy is uh doing fine I see it right here