저자: MarkNewton · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 변동성에도 견조하며 '골든 에이지'로 판단, 조정 시 매수 계획. AI 발전은 긍정적이나 과속 우려 존재. 지표는 하나보다 7~10개 요인 조합이 유용하며, RSI는 과매수/과매도보다 다이버전스 활용이 중요. 월봉 RSI 80 이상인 에너지주는 과매수 주의.
다듬은 글
But, um, you know, the market held up. It's been volatile, but, uh, I definitely plan to buy on dips. Honestly, I think we are still living in a "golden age." This is reminiscent of the mid-90s, because the profit picture is very, very good. We have a "golden mean" economy, and it seems like nothing can stop it now.
Despite all the obvious things to worry about, like wars, potential inflation, or, you know, a K-shaped economy, none of these have been able to send the market into a tailspin so far. If you look back, to February and March, we were in such a perfect market. It was the same "golden zone" that it remains to this day .
The only thing that has really changed is energy prices, which have increased significantly. Well, maybe there were some other nuances. I want to change the subject a bit and talk about the fact that many retail traders, newcomers, have entered the market. Honestly, against this backdrop, artificial intelligence is becoming a big topic with all these AI agents, and maybe they're not ready for these kinds of trading systems yet, but it seems like they're getting there .
I'm curious how you think the trading industry has changed over the past few years. I'm sure you've seen things that are simply amazing: "I can't believe someone could do that." This is the worst thing I have ever seen. And I'm sure you've seen retail traders who are doing really impressive things. So, um , yeah, I'd be interested to know how you see the industry changing lately.
Well, look, this is an extraordinary time for all of us. All of these companies are changing our lives for the better, and the speed at which it's happening, you know, is almost too fast for the mind to comprehend. I mean, I think it's in all of our best interests to really try to use AI in the best way possible.
As for how quickly this will destroy jobs, it is still unclear. I think, for that matter , we're seeing tremendous progress in how AI can be used to create a lot of positive change, although of course there's a fear that things are moving too fast, and I know there's a lot of panic around. Talk of slowing AI development has become a major topic this weekend.
You know, I think that's more of a sensational headline. I don't think it's worth thinking about the end of the world due to AI , but of course, certain safeguards are needed . You know, if the rate of change drops from 200% to 180%, we're still moving in the right direction . Frankly, we cannot allow China to get ahead of us in implementing AI.
Dalio is, of course, hurting his own valuation by talking about doomsday scenarios, but the point is that I am very optimistic about AI. I don't know how quickly this will change our daily lives, but I believe it is a power that will bring benefits if used responsibly. I would like to hear your thoughts: I have seen traders who have 75 indicators and those who have only one.
I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on the indicators on your charts. Where is the line between getting a really great signal and too much noise? Have you found that golden mean yet? I think so, after about 35 years in this business. So, I use my own system, which is based primarily on price dynamics.
Price dynamics are the most important thing for markets. You want to be able to identify stocks and sectors reaching new all-time highs, regardless of the measurement method. Using this as a foundation in conjunction with sentiment, seasonality, cycles, Elliott waves, and Demark theory can be helpful, but everyone has their own toolkit.
I believe that 7–10 factors together help me make better decisions and understand the market and sector rotation that is omnipresent this year . So it's not just one thing. There is no such thing as a “ golden” indicator that will solve everything. It all depends on your time horizon. Some focus on the short term and day trading.
Others lean more towards swing trading. Others are long-term. And for these long-term traders, you know, using long-term moving averages would make a lot of sense. Yes. I want to play a little game at the end. Blind rating of indicators. So, I will name five indicators. You won't know what will happen next.
One is the best , five is the worst on this list. Okay, let's do this. And I would like to hear your thoughts. So, the first one is MACD. Two. Good. Two. I want to choose SMA, simple moving average. Three. Okay, let's move on to... Look, MACD is a form of moving averages. So I mean, to some extent it depends on your timeframe, and you can adapt certain things, so just giving a blind rating—that would be unfair to them, let's start with that .
But, you know, the way I look at the market, I don't use moving averages as a way to make decisions about buying or selling. I want to buy stocks that have a positive MACD on daily, weekly, monthly timeframes . This is very valuable to a certain extent. This also means that the moving averages are pointing in the right direction.
So they can largely be combined, as it is probably the same indicator. Good. OK. What is your opinion on VWAP? You know, I personally don't use VWAP. I know that many people focused on short-term trading have success using it . I think it can be very effective, but for my personal preference, I'm not the kind of trader who works on such short timeframes that it matters to my work.
So I would give it a four. Good. RSI. RSI is important. I would give him one. I think it should be used in light of divergences, not just overbought or oversold levels. Many people make the mistake of believing that when the RSI reaches overbought levels, it is time to sell. Honestly, it is often worth buying when the short-term RSI becomes overbought.
It is important when using RSI to apply different timeframes in your analysis. So weekly and monthly indicators that are not overbought , while the daily one reaches overbought levels, can be a very timely signal to enter a deal. I would say to be cautious when, for example, oil refineries or many energy stocks currently have monthly RSIs well above 80, which means they are very overbought.
So, it is worth watching for the moment when the daily RSI starts to return to the neutral zone and trends start to break. This would give us some evidence that these stocks are starting to turn around. So unfortunately there is no simple answer in the form of a pure rating, but at least this is how, in my opinion, traders can use these tools a little better.
And divergences always occur at extremes—both at the stock market's peaks and its lows. In 2002, we saw the RSI stop falling and show positive divergences while the indices fell to new lows. So you can identify medium-term reversals using divergences within the RSI. And I would say the same thing happened in 2021 at the peak when the RSI started to show negative divergence.
Stocks were hitting new highs, but the RSI wasn't. It is up to each individual to choose how to use the tools, but I would caution people against simply relying on simple RSI overbought or oversold ratings; it is better to use them specifically to find divergences. And this is truly the optimal approach, as I personally use it.
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