저자: MarkNewton · 외국인
요약 보기
Fundstrat의 Mark Newton은 유가·금리 등 외생 리스크에도 시장이 강하다며 AI 지출과 3분기 실적 발표(10월 중순)까지 상승 모멘텀이 이어질 것으로 봤다. 중간선거 연도 변동성은 매수 기회로 보며 낙폭마다 매수 의향을 밝혔다. 연준은 한 차례 인상 정도로 끝날 것으로 예상하고, 그 경우 금리 안정과 S&P500 7800~7850 상승을 전망했다. 유가 급등은 수요 기반이 아닌 일시적 요인으로 보고 인플레이션도 점차 둔화될 것이라 봤다. 기술적 지표로는 MACD 일봉·주봉·월봉 정렬과 RSI 다이버전스를 중시한다고 설명했다.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone! Join us at the amazing Future Proof event with Evan from Stockmarketnews, along with the wonderful Mark Newton from the Fundstrat team. How are you doing, Mark? Perfectly. Thank you. Thank you for being here. We have a crazy market right now. We await the Fed's decision on interest rates.
The price of oil exceeded $100 . Interest rates on 10-year bonds have reached their highest level since 2007. But this market has proven to be very resilient. I'd like to hear your thoughts on this market and how you view the combination of all these potential risk factors that could take us lower, but we didn't fall.
The market is very strong. I would like to hear your opinion. Listen, I think the most important thing is that many people exaggerate the importance of these exogenous factors that don't actually affect what the stock market will do . That is, apart from technical analysis, we have the best profit growth in the last 30 years.
And the fact that the economy continues to work and the earnings picture looks stable. We still see AI spending not going anywhere anytime soon. I know there are concerns that this is overblown, but we see no signs of slowing down, and that will continue until at least mid-October, when the third quarter reports are released.
This will probably be the next indicator of whether there is any slowdown. I'm very encouraged by how much the tech sector has recovered, but as you noted, the market is really resilient. He managed to climb higher, albeit in a very unstable manner. We've seen a lot of rotations throughout the year, and I think that's the main theme of 2026 —market rotation.
The market didn't just go up. He didn't just go down. And everyone is racking their brains over what factors could push the market up, but we know this is a midterm election year. So we should prepare for constant fluctuations and rotations in the markets, because there is really no evidence of technical deterioration that would cause people to tune in to the negative.
Yes, there are less than 50 days left until the midterm elections. True. Um, if you look at the history of election years or even, you know, periods of divided Congress or something like that, how do you assess this moment in the run-up to the election? Yeah, listen, that's a great question. I would honestly argue that the market is still quite divisive right now, because even though the Republican Party controls both the House of Representatives and the Senate, it doesn't feel that way.
And do you know why? Because the advantage that the Republican Party has is very small . So, even if the Democrats take control of the House in November, I still don't think it will be by such a large margin that it would make a big difference . So I still think we are in a state of significant political paralysis, and that will continue for the foreseeable future.
So I don't think the election will be as important an event for the stock market as some might think . We know what history teaches us: buying during midterm downturns is usually one of the best moments in the entire 4-year cycle. So I would consider buying on any market weakness that occurs over the next month.
I don't think anything will happen this week that people expect from the Fed raising rates, we can talk about that, but the market is holding. It's been volatile, but I definitely plan to buy on dips. I think we are still living in a “golden age ”, to be honest, reminiscent of the mid-90s, where profit figures are very, very good.
We have a Goldilocks economy, and right now there seems to be nothing that can stop it, despite all the obvious things that worry us, such as wars, potential inflation, or a K-shaped economy, etc. None of this has been able to significantly harm the market so far. If you look back at February and March, we were in such a perfect market.
This was the same area of the Golden Spit, and it remains so to this day . The only thing that has really changed is the very high increase in energy prices. There may have been other factors, but I would like to hear your thoughts on the Fed this week, as the bond market is very clearly demanding they raise rates.
The yield on 10-year bonds reached its highest level since 2007. This does n't just apply to the US. I know it was Germany, Great Britain, and France. They all achieved 10-year yields at the level of 2008-9, or whenever that was. Um, Kevin Warsh has been a pretty interesting Fed chairman, well, so far.
It seems to me that if the market says it wants one thing, it can do the opposite. Agree. How do you look at this? We discussed this a little bit on our program: if he comes in and raises rates, and the 30- year and 10-year bonds see that as a boost in confidence, maybe yields will go down and stocks will go up.
It could be the other way around, when he leaves rates unchanged and markets doubt confidence in the Fed, and we'll see rates rise. What do you think of this Fed decision this month? You touched on a lot of really interesting points. And to consider them one by one. In fact, Kevin Warsh wants to pave his own path.
However, it was influenced to some extent by the market, which had already priced in a rate hike of 95%, which is expected to happen this week. If he had disappointed and not raised the rate, I think the markets would have reacted quite negatively. There are now several elevations built into the curve , almost three at this point.
I don't think that will happen. Honestly, I think it will all end with one raise. This would calm the market if it were to move higher. We know that it takes 12 to 18 months for any change in interest rates to have a real impact on the economy. So this is, honestly, good news. This would actually allow the Fed to restore its credibility to some extent.
If he had listened to what the market was expecting from federal funds futures and raised the rate by at least 25 basis points, but not been so "hawkish", I think the bond market would have responded by rising. I think we will see yields start to retreat, and that should also be good news for the stock market.
I am quite optimistic that the S&P can move up from the 7550 level next month, probably to 7800–7850. This does not mean that the rest of the year will be all growth . I think we have some challenges in October, but he has a tough , very tough job right now, and most of the market is resisting his unwillingness to really pay attention to his own, um...well, reaction function and how he's actually evaluating the market.
So, we'll see what exactly he has prepared. He is in a very difficult position, because you said that we are in the " golden mean", and in fact these energy prices are hurting us . Raising rates will not help solve this. So to some extent I think the " do it once and be done" strategy makes a lot of sense.
You know, calm the markets, maintain confidence, but ultimately raise rates two or three times... I think Bank of America or someone else said they expect three rate cuts this year. I'm just not sure if I see any reason for it . Well, consumer stocks told us one thing: despite what they say about consumer spending, most stocks have n't moved anywhere all year.
They were actually a big disappointment. We've seen cruise lines retreat. We saw a lot of booking agencies, a lot of casino promotions. Most consumer staples have been severely affected. So to think that you can take an economy that may be quite fragile, when the world is facing a huge debt problem, especially the US, and think that we can get out of it by raising rates, I think is quite irresponsible.
I sincerely believe that we should let the economy " warm up," and we know that high oil prices are a temporary factor. This is due to the proposal. This is not exactly a demand-driven event. So eventually, when we get to some successful negotiations that allow for a more complete opening of the strait, we will see oil prices fall, and that will probably happen next year.
But we know it's temporary. This is not based on demand. This is all a proposition, and for this reason I don't see inflation as something sustainable. I think it will be, as they say, temporary, although I know that's a bad word today, but I think we will see inflation start to, you know, come down.
I know it's above the Fed's target, but at 2.5-3% ...you know, it doesn't seem so significant that you'd really want to raise rates significantly because of it. This is logical. I want to change the subject a bit and talk about the fact that many retail traders, newcomers, have entered the market. And, to be honest, against this backdrop, artificial intelligence is becoming something significant thanks to AI agents, and maybe they're not in these trading systems yet, but it seems like they're on the way.
I'm curious how you think the profession of trader has changed over the past few years. I'm sure you've seen things that are simply amazing: "I can't believe someone did that, that's the worst thing I've ever seen." But I'm sure you've also seen retail traders doing really impressive things. So, I'd be interested to know how you think the industry has changed in the last...
Well, look, this is an extraordinary time for all of us. All of these companies are changing our lives for the better, and the speed at which it's all happening, you know, is almost too fast for us to comprehend. I think it's in everyone's best interest to really try to use AI as effectively as we can.
How quickly this will lead to job losses is still unclear. I think we're likely to see huge progress in how we can use AI to create many positive changes. And, and...Of course, there's a fear that things are moving too fast, and I know there's a lot of panic around that. Yes, I slowed down the pace of my conversation with him.
Important event this weekend. You know, I think that's kind of a sensational headline. I don't think it's worth thinking about the " end of the world" due to AI, but certainly having certain safeguards...you know , if the rate of change drops from 200% to 180%, we'll still be moving in the right direction .
And frankly, we can't let China, in my opinion, make progress in implementing AI faster than we do. So, you know, Dario is definitely hurting his own self-esteem, talking about scenarios like the end of the world. So, to sum up, I'm very passionate about artificial intelligence. I don't have the answers to, you know, how quickly this will change our daily lives, but I think it's definitely a force for good , and we just have to use it responsibly and correctly.
I would like to hear your thoughts on, you know, I've seen traders have 75 indicators on their screen and only see one. I've seen traders with only one. I'm curious about your opinion on indicators and other things on your charts. Where is this balance between getting a really great signal and not having unnecessary noise?
Have you found this limit yet? Well, I think I found it after about 35 years in this business . So, look, I use my own system, which is mainly based on price dynamics first and foremost . Price dynamics are the most important thing for markets. You want to be able to identify stocks and sectors that are breaking out to new all-time highs, no matter how you measure it.
Using this as a foundation and combining it with things like sentiment, seasonality, cycles, Elliott waves, and Demark theory can be very useful for investors. But, as you rightly point out, everyone has their own set of tools that works for them. I tend to think that, you know, seven to ten factors put together really help me make better, more informed decisions that help investors and myself have a clear picture of what's going on in the market and with the sector rotation that's been so ubiquitous this year.
And that's why it doesn't all come down to one thing. There is no " golden" indicator that will solve everything. It all depends on your own time horizon. Some are very short-term oriented and day trading. Others are more likely to be swing traders. There are also long-term traders. And for such long-term traders, using long-term moving averages would make a lot of sense.
Yes. I want to play a little game to finish. Blind rating of indicators. So, I will name five indicators. You won't know what will happen next. One will be the best. Five would be the worst on this list. Let's do this. And I would like to hear your thoughts. So, the first one is MACD. Two. OK. Two. I will choose SMA .
Simple moving averages. Three. OK. Let's start with this. But MACD is a type of moving average. So , I mean, to some extent it all depends on what time frame you're trying to use. You can choose certain tools, but blind ranking will not be fair to them. And let's start with this. But, you know, in terms of how I look at the market, I don't use moving averages to make buy or sell decisions.
I want to buy stocks that have a positive MACD on daily, weekly, and monthly charts. This is very valuable. To some extent, this also means that the moving average is pointing in the right direction. So they can largely be combined as the same indicator. Good. OK. What is your opinion on VWAP? You know, I personally don't use VWAP.
I know that many people focused on short-term trading use it successfully. I think it can be very effective, but due to my personal preferences, I am not a trader who works on such short intervals where it would make a difference to my work. So I would give it a four. Good. RSI? RSI is important. I would give him a one.
I believe it should be used for divergences, not just overbought or oversold levels. Many people make the mistake of thinking that when the RSI reaches overbought levels, it is time to sell. Honestly, it is often when the short-term RSI becomes overbought that it is worth buying. It is important when using RSI to apply different time frames in the analysis .
Therefore, when the weekly and monthly charts are not overbought, and the daily chart reaches these levels, it may be a timely signal to enter a trade. I would advise caution when, for example, oil refineries and many energy stocks currently have monthly RSIs well above 80, indicating strong overbought conditions.
So it's worth keeping an eye on when the daily RSI starts to return to the neutral zone and trends start to break, which will indicate a possible stock reversal. Unfortunately, there is no simple answer to this in the form of a pure rating, but at least this way, in my opinion, traders can make better use of these tools.
And divergences always occur at extremes for both stock market peaks and bottoms. In 2002, we saw that the RSI indicator stopped falling and showed some positive divergences, while the indices fell to new lows. So, you can identify medium-term reversals using divergences in RSI. I would say the same thing happened in 2021 at the peak when the RSI started to diverge negatively: stocks reached new highs, but the RSI did not.
So everyone decides for themselves how to use these tools. I would just advise people to do a little more research on this issue, rather than assuming that a simple RSI overbought or oversold rating is very useful. It is better to use them to find divergences—that is the “gold standard” of how I personally use them.
Perfectly. This was an amazing interview with Mark Newton from the Funstrat team. He posts a lot of content on X and shoots a lot of videos. If you don't see what he's doing, you're missing out on a lot. Mark, I am grateful to you for this conversation. Thank you very much, Evan. It was nice talking to you and everyone. Goodbye. Good day everyone.
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