IT'S OVER. I Can't Stay Quiet on Tesla Stock (TSLA) Any Longer

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테슬라 4분기 실적이 매출 미스(약 252억 달러, 컨센서스 대비 4% 하회)와 매출총이익률 15% 이상 감소로 실망스러웠다고 진단. 가격 인하 지속과 CFO 교체, 생산량 성장 둔화가 우려 요인. 일론 머스크의 의결권 25% 요구 발언은 투자 가치를 훼손하는 위협으로 평가. 단기적으로 테슬라 신규 매수는 하지 않지만 보유분은 매도하지 않겠다는 입장. 장기적으로는 AI·로보틱스 리더십에 낙관적이나 머스크 행동이 바뀌지 않으면 견해가 달라질 수 있다고 함.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. shares of Tesla down 12% since reporting that big Q4 earnings missed the other day Dreadful assessment stock is laed by something like 7% in the pre-market the Bears W and it's hard to defend this was the most sobering Outlook that I have seen from Tesla he's basically setting Tesla up to be taken over I can't stay quiet on Tesla stock any longer it's been crashing and burning for a couple quarters now and it's down by around 30% in the last month alone and since Elon Musk seems to only be making things worse go yourself there's really only one question left to ask is Tesla still a good investment or are their best days already in the rear viw mirror your time is valuable so let's get right into it first things first I'm not here to keep you hostage here's everything I'm going to talk about and it's pretty cut and dry I'll cover my near-term outlook for Tesla based on their most recent earnings call my medium-term Outlook based on elon's increasingly unpredictable Behavior and my long-term Outlook which is based on full self-driving Tesla dojo and the Optimus bot and of course whether I think Tesla stock is still a good investment as a result but let me start by saying that this isn't a video about Tesla being bad and I'm not rooting for them to fail over the last 3 years I've made an entire playlist of videos talking about the incredible engineering inside their electric vehicles their gigafactories and their approach to full self-driving but I can't stay quiet any longer about a few things that I think will be hard for Tesla investors to hear and if you don't agree that's fine leave me a comment just make sure that your point of view is based on facts and not feelings and realize that I'm saying all of this as somebody who wants Tesla to keep winning all right with that out of the way let's get right into the earnings call Tesla missed on both revenue and earnings per share total revenues for the quarter came in at just under 25.2 billion which was 4% below analyst expectations and only up 3% year-over a year and Tesla's total revenues for 2023 came in at just under $97 billion which is about 19% higher year-over-year now 19% is solid growth for Topline revenues but it's nowhere near the 51% that Tesla grew by in 2022 or the 71% Revenue growth they saw in 2021 shout out to Mainstreet data.com for making these numbers so easy to visualize but revenues only tell one part of the story Tesla's gross margins grew by 63% in 2020 105% in 2021 and 53% in 2022 but in 2023 they actually shrank by over 15% year-over-year marking the first time we've seen Tesla's margins compress in around half a decade that's because even though Tesla delivered a record 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 they had to aggressively slash their prices on the model 3 and the model y to achieve those numbers and when you combine that with Tesla's new CFO saying that he expects growth in vehicle production volume to be notably lower for 2024 it doesn't take much for investors to start connecting the dots slower production growth and lower margins with no clear end in sight for these price Cuts is not the message that any of us were hoping for I should also point out that this wasn't Tesla's first terrible earnings call I mean if you looked up disaster in the dictionary there'd be a video of last night's conference call and I think the problem is is that the street wanted to get details have the price Cuts ended where is the gross margin Outlook what do the man ultimately look into 2024 and instead it was really must put on his macroeconomist sort of hat and that's not what the street wanted I think the big issue was really around the price cuts and also like losing your CFO that was I think a huge part of The credibility investors came off that call and I can tell you institutionally speaking just a lot more questions no answer where was the operating margin 7.6% I think came in how does that that's like closer to other automakers right I thought musk would put the Line in the Sand maybe a few more price Cuts then we're over but but I would put last night is a top three probably worst conference call I've heard from Elon see what I mean that clip was from right after Tesla's quarter 3 earnings call a few months ago but it applies perfectly to this most recent one and the one before that and the one before that and in my opinion this is becoming a much larger pattern for what many investors think is the best business in the world world but there's another energy business you should know about and that's climatize the sponsor of this video climatize connects investors to solar projects across the US in need of capital and projects on climatized can return up to 10% annually using climatized is like loaning someone money for a home mortgage but instead of it being a home it's a solar project and instead of a homeowner it's a business a school or a community that's will wisman the CEO of climatize and climatize is pretty simple they use their 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of disappointing earnings calls that aren't addressing the key issues that's why I'm not buying Tesla stock in the near term at least not at these prices I want to make it clear that I'm not saying that Tesla is a Bad Company far from it but the opportunity cost of holding Tesla stock seems really high to me right now there are many other great companies out there capitalizing on AI and at much higher margins so what I'm looking for in the near- term is a clear sign that Tesla can meaningfully improve their margins grow their production volume and honestly change Elon musk's Behavior so let's talk about that next you don't want them to advertise no what do you mean if somebody's going to try to Blackmail me with advertising blackmail me with money go yourself but go yourself is that clear I hope it is look personally I'm not offended by a few curse words and what's even more frustrating is that I agree with what he's saying about media companies being held hostage by advertisers and their budgets but this is still the CEO of Tesla in public clearly acting with poor judgment and speaking of poor judgment just you me can you imagine Jensen Wong coming on air and saying he needs five times his current Holdings if he's going to do some super D duper generative AI you imagine that pure huis which is why Tesla might be the first to exit the seven I can't believe I'm saying this but I agree with Jim Kramer on this one the words even taste bad if you don't know what Kramer is talking about Elon Musk recently said that he's uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in Ai and Robotics without having at least 25% voting control of the company which is about twice as much as his current 133% stake in my opinion Elon Musk just made an existential threat against Tesla I honestly don't see how anyone could take it any other way or why anyone would buy this stock until this issue gets resolved and we shouldn't just blindly support Elon here because there are massive problems with his line of reasoning first Elon Musk owned and controlled 22% of Tesla not too long ago that is until he sold over $20 billion worth of his Tesla stock to help Finance his purchase of Twitter which ended up costing $44 billion and it's not hard to see how salty he is about it because Twitter is currently worth way less than half of what he paid for it that's not a guess by the way that's the number based on the sheare value that Twitter employees are getting compensated at I can't imagine why go yourself is that clear the second problem is that Elon is constantly undermining the position that Tesla is currently in which is a pretty bad look coming from its CEO Tesla is not a startup anymore much less a dozen of them don't get me wrong it's awesome that Tesla still has a startup culture 20 years after Ian joined the company but just a few quarters ago Tesla was worth over a trillion dollar with a capital T Tesla's stock is currently in the Magnificent 7 and at the time of this recording it's still in the top 10 positions of both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ and in 2023 Tesla manufactured and sold more than half of all electric vehic I Les in the US and there's no doubt that all of these massive achievements are because of the company culture that Elon Musk has cultivated but let's not pretend that every Mega cap company doesn't have a big portfolio of startup sized business units inside them many of which I cover right here on this channel all right the third and by far most egregious problem with Elon not wanting to do his job unless shareholders pay him back for buying Twitter I mean unless he has 25% voting control is that that's the entire reason to buy Tesla stock in the first place look I get it you're probably frustrated with a lot of the things that I'm saying in this video and in case it isn't clear I'm frustrated by them too but just humor me let's take a look at elon's tweet objectively as shareholders of his publicly traded company I am uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in Ai and Robotics without having around 25% voting control enough to be influential but not so much that I can't be overturned unless that is the case I would prefer to build products outside of Tesla in my opinion this is a threat to Tesla's entire existence because the main reason to invest in Tesla is the belief that they are already a leader in Ai and Robotics and that Tesla is using that leadership position to create shareholder value through Ai and Robotics to the best of its ability today for example Tesla shareholders tolerate the price cuts and low margins that I mentioned earlier because we expect the high margin full self-driving software to make up for it in the future Tesla shareholders understand that investments in dojo and their supercomputing infrastructure are long shots but we support them anyway because nvidia's gpus are in short supply and Tesla can build great chips of their own which kills two birds with one stone and we're all excited for the next generation of Tesla's robotic platforms whether that's their $25,000 Robo taxi or Optimus which Elon Musk says will one day be bigger than all the cars uh so then we we basically just need to design the the uh specialized actuators and sensors that I needed for a humanoid robot people have no idea this is this is going to be bigger than the car without Ai and Robotics Tesla is just another car company so in my opinion when the richest and arguably most influential man in the world says he doesn't feel comfortable doing these things unless he gets more stock and more influence it's hard to see it as anything but a power grab and in my opinion if Elon Musk has no trouble selling over $20 billion worth of Tesla stock to buy Twitter he should also have no trouble selling some of his Twitter stock or his SpaceX stock or whatever else to feel comfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in Ai and Robotics if that's still a high priority for him can you imagine Jensen Wong coming on air and saying he needs five times his current Holdings if he's going to do some super D duper generative AI can you imagine that pure huis ask yourself if the CEO of any other company acted like this would you still invest in it and that brings me to my long-term outlook for Tesla which honestly hasn't changed much I'm still really bullish on Tesla's long-term future because I really do believe that it's already one of the best AI and Robotics companies on the planet and a big reason for that is how Elon Musk and Tesla's Engineers turned technical challenges into huge competitive advantages they were wise enough to put C cameras in very early models of their cars and start collecting billions of miles of driving Data before anyone else and then they use that data to train an AI That's so good that they don't need expensive sensors like liar or radar at all they used first principles to reinvent how people parts and cars flow through their factories and made big bets on new Manufacturing Technologies like using a giga press to Stamp Out entire sections of cars instead of welding and gluing together hundreds of different parts uh but I think also for long-term competitiveness um eventually every every car company will have long-range electric cars um I you know eventually every company will have autonomy I think but not every company will be uh great at at manufacturing uh Tesla will be absolutely Head and Shoulders above anyone else in manufacturing that is our goal and when Tesla couldn't get enough gpus from Nvidia they built their own custom chips even though project Dojo is a long shot the fact that Tesla can build literally everything they need to achieve their mission makes them one of the most resilient companies on the planet and sure there are speed bumps here and there like the Cyber truck being delayed by more than 2 years because of how hard it is to manufacture or switching to an entirely different approach to full self-driving between version 11 and 12 of their FSD software but when you're doing so many things that no one else has done before in an industry that hasn't changed in decades you're bound to hit obstacles that no one has overcome before you all of these Innovations and more are what separates Tesla from normal car compan iies the only thing that would change my long-term outlook on Tesla is Elon Musk for all the reasons I just talked about all right we covered a lot of ground but I wanted to be thorough since there are so many different aspects to both Tesla and Elon Musk and I know I'm saying things that aren't Pleasant to hear but I respect Elon Musk enough to take the things he says seriously and I do think we need to talk about them especially as investors who want to see this company Thrive for years to come so with all that context let's talk about whether or not I think Tesla stock is still a good investment and if you feel I've earned it consider hitting the like button and subscribing to the channel that really helps me out and it lets me know to put out more commentary like this thanks and with that out of the way here's my honest thoughts on Tesla stock I'm not selling any shares right now but I'm not buying any more Tesla stock until I know that it will still be the AI and Robotics company that I thought I was already invested in the opportunity cost is just too high even if Tesla stock goes back up by 30% from here that just brings it back to the price it was at 1 month ago while almost every other AI software and hardware company that I cover has been absolutely ripping I honestly don't care that Elon must bought Twitter or what he does with it but that shouldn't be paid for by Tesla investors and I personally don't mind his behavior during interviews or on Twitter until it starts taking away from what I think are two of the most important missions on the planet making Humanity a multiplanetary species with SpaceX and accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy with Tesla like I always say it's important to understand the science behind the stocks and I really hope that Elon doesn't take that science away from Tesla and make it just another car company and if he does well go yourself is that clear thanks for watching and until next time this is tickers assle you my name is Alex reminding you that the best investment you can make is in you