저자: CouchInvestor · 외국인
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엔비디아는 게이밍 부진과 전분기 가이던스 하락(매출 59억 달러 전망)으로 최근 어려웠으나, 데이터센터 성장과 높은 ROE(34.41%)·매출총이익률(60% 초반)을 근거로 장기 보유 가치가 있다고 봄. 향후 두 분기는 어렵고 이후 전년비 비교가 쉬워져 개선될 것이라는 전망. 다만 선행 PER 34.5배로 여전히 비싸다고 평가. 중국 수출규제 영향은 제한적이라는 엔비디아 입장을 전달.
다듬은 글
everyone coach you this here back to another video for today so let's talk a bit about Nvidia obviously we had the tsmc report earnings great earnings great increase in profit as well I made a video about the company before the earnings came out if you want to check that out it's going to be in the top right corner now as for NVIDIA it has been well not such a great year for the company obviously last quarter wasn't great Outlook wasn't good as well now they're only expecting 5.9 billion dollars in revenue for this quarter I'm gonna have a look at all of that in this video but this is the state of the company and the stock right now so yes Revenue has been going up and up and up in recent years and quarters so that's great but as you can see it is plateauing a little bit and that's normal cyclical company especially semiconductors this is bound to happen as you can see back in 2018 we peaked then went back down this was mainly because of well the crypto winter but since then the company has well a new money baby let's call it which is Data Centers which I'm going to touch on later on in this video now as for free cash flow it's free cash for positive in the last 12 months 6.26 billion dollars yes that has been coming down as well return Equity is still very very high here 34.41 percent great gross profit margin sits at just over 60 percent let's see what happens next quarter maybe it will be low 60 maybe not remains to be seen now with regards to Nvidia and tsmc Intel AMD basically every big player in the semiconductor industry obviously the news came out with the restrictions of selling to China so obviously with Nvidia that came out a bit earlier as we've talked about that no new restrictions came out we talked about that in the tsmc video but Nvidia actually told Reuters that they do not expect material impact from the new U.S restrictions so that's great to hear we also have a new price Target from City that lowered it from 248 dollars to 210 dollars so the analyst reduced estimates for the cloud data Centric semis while this supply chain discussion continue to indicate Cloud compute demand remains 15 to 20 percent above Supply at U.S hyperscalers the analyst says slowing macro and advertising sales will likely impact Cloud capex growth to 10 percent from 15 this year Malik assumes no Major Impact from New China controls like sales of Highly dense systems noting that Nvidia believes these regulations impose on the broader industry controls for processors hitting certain thresholds that they were already subjected to so there is that now I'm gonna do a little recap but before that I want to thank the monthly fool for sponsoring this video the monthly fool is a company that provides investing insight and stock recommendations for investors of all skill sets and risk levels you all know how much I love researching new stocks and trying to find the next best investment so I'm proud to partner with the Motley Fool to bring you 10 Stock picks from their popular product stock advisor now stock advisor has actually beat the market comfortably over the years so all you have to do is go to full.com for slash couch investor or go and check the links down in the description and in the pin comment to get the best 10 Stock picks now so a small recap of what has been happening with the company in the last couple of quarters and why the next two ones will probably be still be one of the most difficult ones but once we're over that it will become a bit easier I'll explain why so this is the picture for NVIDIA since Q3 fiscal year 2021 now I'm saying that in fiscal year 2024 for NVIDIA so by next year you might see the company were lapping easier comparisons now as I've been saying in each and every video in the last couple of months gaming is becoming smaller while data center keeps on growing obviously the pace of growth might have slowed down that's what to be expected in the current macro environment but unlike 2018 now data center can pick up the let's say damage that the gaming segment has done also we have professional visualization but that has also taken a hit last quarter but Auto to a my surprise has increased quite nicely year over year and even quarter over quarter and of course the Outlook was 5.9 billion dollars for next quarter which is just above q1 fiscal year 2022 and a quick reminder for those that maybe forgot so gaming and professional visualization Revenue are expected to decline sequentially as oems and channel Partners reduce inventory levels to align with current levels of demand and prepare for our new product generation we expect that the client to be partially offset by sequential growth in Data Center and Automotive that said still a very very big decline for a company that is still today not that cheap compared to its peers let's say AMD especially Intel but then again Intel has its own issues which we've covered on this channel as well now Nvidia why are the next two quarters still going to be difficult but after that is going to be easier well because if you look at these numbers right here as you can see Q3 Q4 last year were still very very strong quarters and I mean even q1 this year was pretty strong but once we lap these difficult quarters which we're gonna do in next year right it's for them fiscal year 2024 for the usual calendar is just in 2023 once we lap those difficult quarters it would be much easier for the company to have those better let's say year-over-year increase in revenue of course it also depends on the macro environment High inflation what happens with their Channel Partners Etc and maybe even some events China Taiwan you never know but overall once we lab those difficult months it will become much easier for the company and especially the stock and when talking about valuation right if you look at the forward PE for this company right now if you look at price to earnings ratio in the next 12 months or maybe here above the forward PE 34.5 X so it is still quite expensive yes in the future it will continue to grow and grow but in the short term again you will have two difficult quarters so maybe some some investors might see these numbers and say maybe this is still very expensive I rather go with I don't know AMD for example now of course if you compare it to other quarters in the past then yes it is much cheaper than before I mean right now that number is much cheaper than the majority of quarters that you see here up until well I can only show you up until q1 fiscal year 2021.
but again I want to rebind everyone that you're not buying a stock a company like Nvidia for the near term you're not buying this company for the next couple of months or even one or two years you're probably buying a company like Nvidia because you want it to be in your portfolio for more than five maybe even 10 years or maybe even forever because to be honest Nvidia is really in a couple of segments that will keep on growing and can only accelerate here on out Automotive do we need more chips more AI yes professional visualization productivity is going up as more and more things become digital as we've seen with metaconnect VR AR you can do so many things with that and then obviously data center still something that is growing extremely fast obviously just the gaming segment will always have its cyclicality so that's something to take into consideration but we will need more or less gpus in the future I think we're gonna need more now of course with ethereum Etc not needing gpus anymore they're taking a hit there but overall are they in many many segments that will keep on growing for years to come yes is the company still expensive yes are we still going to see some challenges with regards to semiconductors yes as well but think five ten years from now or even more is the company going to be worth more or less that's a question you have to ask yourself not just for NVIDIA but for every other company you plan on investing today so you do share your thoughts down in the comments below and if you enjoyed this type of videos give it a thumbs up if you haven't subscribed to this channel maybe hit that subscribe button and I'll see you all in the next one bye
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