저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tech 밸류에이션은 AI 덕에 양호하고 엔비디아는 forward PE 약 28배로 비싸지 않다. 연준이 데이터 의존을 벗어나 연착륙 방향의 인하 사이클을 가면 시장 확장이 가능하다. 실업률 상승 우려가 있으나 엔비디아 실적 발표 전 변동성(±10%) 예상. 장기적으로 엔비디아는 AI capex 사이클 덕에 수년간 성장 여력이 있다고 본다. 단기 방향은 불확실하다고 명시.
다듬은 글
Tech's already done well so normally you'd think or multiples could expect or at least multiples don't need to stay where they are or contract a high multiple Tech stock so they should could at least feel better about the valuations if rates came down yes that's right I think Tech is still in in a good place because of AI and Nvidia should reinforce that and it's not a demanding multiple Nvidia is maybe 28 times forward earnings which is for the best one of the most important companies in the world it's not a high multiple so if Tech is in a good place and then we get fed Cuts I think it it allows the overall Market to expand do we uh see an orderly easing cycle uh because the FED doesn't feel like it needs act in intra uh they have a meeting that where they go 50 or or whatever you think they just 25 and then the next meeting 25 so only do 50 this year and then maybe continue next year you think it'll be like that uh I think the I think that a soft Landing is the probabilities are going up and that's why this should be a a benign cutting cycle like good for markets but I think the key is the Fed getting off data dependence because data dependence is the reason they they missed the inflation turn and I think now they're missing the soft mirr but could are they is it possible that they're too restrictive right now and that the lag isn't we don't know how powerful the lag FL effective the higher rates could be and they they end up doing 50 or doing a couple of 50s is that possible I I think it's I think Futures markets are showing more than two cuts so I think the FED probably is a little behind the curve and we know there is a recession in housing and durables and auto sales so there's there was a lot of pain out there so cutting more aggressively would would actually make sense at least from the markets's persp where do you think well you're a market C but where do you think unemployment tops out to we get to five do we go over five% unemployment you know it the it a lot of it has to do with how the FED communicates to CEOs because a lot of companies are cautious right with monetary policy this tight and real rates this tight it it makes them reluctant to expand and so the job market itself kind of hinges on what the fed's doing and yeah it could you know once the job market starts seeing unemployment rise it could get bad uh Nvidia is coming up next week Josh you talked about it just a bit earlier in the show we're going to show a graphic right here just to remind people we don't talk about Nvidia as much as we once were talking about it but heavy weighting in the S&P heavy weighting in the NASDAQ 100 talk to our data team they say imply volatilities 10% to the upside or downside after earnings Anastasia I want to come over to you could could this be the cause of the volatility a lot of people are looking at this earnings report coming up are you concerned about this and how it might impact the market well it's obviously an important one for the market but I'm not overly concerned about it because I have a hard time believing that a company like Nvidia does not deliver given everything else that we've heard from meta uh and Amazon and others and what I mean specifically by that is that despite whether those companies right now can monetize AI or not they're investing in it they're investing in data centers they're investing in some of those data center chips so I think that capex cycle is very much alive and while and it's being upgraded uh for 2024 and also 2025 so that of course is going to benefit uh a company like Nvidia but it would also broaden us out this morning or overnight I should say we had a constructive earnings report from Analog Devices and what I really picked up there is that they're calling they're really seeing the trough industrial and auto and markets and they're seeing um orders that are picking up so if you take the AI sentiment um that is positive and you couple that with the potential trough and cyclical semiconductors I think that really solidifies what investors should continue to pay attention to the space and by the way we're talking about getting back to that all-time high on the S&P the S Sox index the semiconductors are still got 10% off the all time I have a little bit of an unofficial indicator uh for for situations like this that I'd like to share with the audience unal though Jensen Wang does not stop doing podcasts he just did one for Stamford the week before he did he did uh a live thing with Mark Zuckerberg at his own conference CEOs who are on Pace to miss expectations are not hanging out on podcasts like Joe Rogan so I I don't know how you quantify this but he doesn't stop talking and so I don't know if it's another dro the mik quarter cuz the expectations are really high but it would be hard for me to picture this being a bomb and by the way of all the mag 7 names I think it's the number one or number two closest to its uh record highs um the problem is expecting revenue of 28.6 billion which would be 112% yearyear growth uh earning 64 cents which would be 137% year over your growth these are really incredible growth rates to sustain when you're already the third largest market cap on Earth so the expectations are high but the man is out and about he's not like wearing sunglasses you know in a in a Mot room somewhere like Ben Affleck he is on the scene and you're not doing that if you're about to shock people to the down you're just not while we're using alternative data if he switches from leather jacket to jean jacket what does that mean it means he's a certified gangster what else do you want me to say by the way video shares down 1 and a half% as Josh was actually talking the shares bounced just a bit that's interesting that's my indicator Frank power of the indicator and this is the opposite story we've been seeing from Big Tech Microsoft Google and Amazon those shares were largely punished after earnings because they said capex is going to increase to build out their AI Ambitions apple is the outlier of the group though spending relatively little about 2 and a half% of sales according to mfet Nathanson and that's compared to its peers of course spending a lot more than that we're just going to see how that capex Pusher really impacts cuz nid is the one that is the one anyone really everybody wants to know about that and they're the beneficiary of all this CeX I wonder so if we talk about the way that maybe investors are viewing the overall capex picture is it about now this growth slash you know investing balance that Tech has had to strike because of artificial intelligence or is it a focus now more Pippa I guess on your side of things about this idea that if they are spending it is because they have a reason to and it's they need to grow and that's the reason why we're doing it on the old world value side of the equation I think that's it that we've seen so much momentum and this already you know being priced in kind of The Upside from AI but that's still further down the line and in some cases it's almost putting the cart before the horse because you have to actually build it out first and there's been so much interest in the cloud and Tech and AI but what about the stuff that actually makes all of that run and so that's what Bank of America is is saying and others as well that you have to focus on the companies that provide the materials the cement the wiring the co H yeah all these very unsexy areas but they're the ones that actually make it come to life and those areas of the market have been overlooked amid this big boom in Tech investing I I just wonder Stephen maybe you can add some color this or not but all of this is with this idea that there's going to be a massive payoff waiting for these Investments and people become wait well what is Microsoft's uptake of these you know that is exactly and that is the big question we heard it again and again on these earnings calls this entire season okay you're spending these enormous amounts of money you know know 1920 billion a quarter on Capital expenditures when are we going to see a return when are we going to see Revenue growth the answer from pretty much everyone is we don't know but we know the demand just keeps accelerating in Microsoft's case they say we literally can't keep up with it we just don't they're offloading stuff to Oracle now because they just don't have the capacity to do it yeah so Inc so the demand truly is there you talk about the cart before the horse I mean there's it's already there like they don't need to even worry about that they don't have to prepare for anything it's here it's happen that's what they keep saying I'll go back to what um alphabet CEO suar Bai said he said he'd rather overspend than underspend he'd rather make the mistake and spend too much on all this because of all the demand they're seeing so that's it's it's a very different story than what you typically see you know what they called that back in the day they used to call well it's not just that they used to call it the the Field of Dreams trade which if you build it they will come that's the whole idea it's already coming I think what we're what we're hearing it's not hoping they'll come it's kind of already but for AI it's whether or not you hope they will come after the AI is been put in place and all the infrastructure is built out and that's the whole idea behind why you have to spend all and pai's argument is hey if I overspend on all this stuff there are other things we can use that infrastructure for you didn't really say what but there's you know there's it won't go to was it won't go to waste is saying the last two days it's been very very toppy Nvidia is the same thing they your market leader it was 105 it went to 130 and eight trading days that's popped out in the last two days to see it moving to the down tied again what do you make of the fact that we're going into next week where volume arguably will still be light and such large Tech Catalyst like Nvidia and Del Nvidia that will move the market on Wednesday when we get Nvidia but remember the numbers we know about Nvidia their earnings acceleration have been slowing down now for a whole year we know their earnings are going to be great the they're just not growing as fast as they used to be we they have to find another reason to re accelerate their earnings grow uh I don't know what it's going to be but the street will be surprised if they dramatically raised their numbers that'll move it to the upside all right I hope you are all staying calm in this market and doing well we have some important things to talk about regarding Nvidia Mega cap Tech and the market overall so in my past couple videos I've mentioned that I didn't like what I was seeing on nvidia's chart in the shortterm and I thought we could potentially trade lower or at least remain relatively flat between now and earnings we were wedged underneath this resistance trend line and we were seeing slowing momentum show up on the history on The Daily time frame and I was slightly concerned but as I mentioned in yesterday's video I'm not going to put too much emphasis on technical analysis between now and earnings because nvidia's price action in the shortterm will be largely dependent on the rest of the market and whether or not we see Nvidia investors take some risk off the table as we head into earnings now about today what happened well this morning I was looking for trading opportunities and I noticed that Microsoft was very clearly trading lower in comparison to its peers so I thought to myself what's going on with Microsoft well yesterday afternoon Microsoft announced that they are changing how they report Revenue in the various segments according to CNBC this is being done to give investors better visibility into Cloud consumption Revenue I'll be honest this gets complicated but I'm going to try and simplify it as much as possible so please bear with me here and remember that this is important for NVIDIA because Microsoft is nvidia's largest customer so Microsoft's outlook for Revenue this quarter Q won a fiscal year 20125 is still fine overall they are still guiding for about $64.3 billion in total revenue for the quarter they did rearrange how revenue is reported in the various segments but in the end when you add everything together Microsoft's total revenue guidance is still just fine here's where things get tricky though this is what I think caused both Microsoft and Nvidia to trade lower today Microsoft updated their outlook for the quarter to include lower Azure Revenue growth than what was previously announced this is a graphic from Microsoft's presentation yesterday Do Not freak out because I'm going to walk you through this and it is much more simple than it seems at first glance so in this left column is the guidance that Microsoft gave during their most recent earnings conference call under the previous definitions for each Revenue segment and the column on the right hand side is Microsoft's updated Outlook under the new definitions for each Revenue segment now I want you to focus on one specific line in this graphic and that is a and other cloud services Revenue so under the old definition for this Revenue segment Microsoft was guiding for growth of 28 to 29% this quarter remember this is under the old definition for this Revenue segment under the new definition for this Revenue segment they are guiding for 33% growth rather than the 28 to 29% under the old definition this is important because if you apply the new definition of azure Revenue to last quarter's results then Microsoft would have reported growth of about 34 to 35% and so now Microsoft is guiding for 33% growth this quarter which is one to two points lower than the growth we saw in last quarter results for Azure and other cloud services Revenue under the new definition for this Revenue segment so this appears to have sent Microsoft and Nvidia stocks lower in today's trading session as Market participants started worrying that the rate of growth may be less than what was originally expected remember Microsoft is nvidia's largest customer and since Microsoft and Nvidia make up such a large portion of the major indices they pulled the rest of the market down with them so now the focus turns to Nvidia earnings next Wednesday on August 28th yes we do have fed share Jerome Powell speaking tomorrow and that could potentially provide some short-term relief for markets given that the FED is likely to cut interest rates in September but I think the larger focus in the market right now is NVIDIA both their earnings and even more so their forward-looking guidance generative Ai and capex spinning on AI have been such integral parts of the market rally this year and so there is a lot riding on this earnings report next Wednesday it's not only important for NVIDIA but it is also very important for the rest of the market now I'll be completely honest I don't know what the future holds in the shortterm Anything Could Happen long term though I am bullish on the future of Nvidia and I think the company likely has at least another couple years of strong growth ahead of it of course I could be wrong and nothing is guarantee but I think in still has more Runway over the next couple years as all of the hyperscalers have been increasing capex spending on AI by billions of dollars the hyperscalers simply cannot afford to be laid on AI and they must invest heavily in AI now or they will be quickly left behind by their competitors so shortterm I don't know what will happen and I have no idea what invidious earnings or guidance will be longterm though I think Nvidia still has brighter days ahead if Blackwell is delayed that doesn't really concern me regarding the long-term future of Nvidia because they can simply sell more h100 gpus in the interim and they would likely just guide higher for future quarters in which they expect Blackwell to to ship in volume at least that's how I see it with all of that being said I hope you're all staying calm in this market
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