Your Grocery Bill Is Growing Faster Than Your Investments - Peter Schiff

요약 보기

연준의 사실상 하방지지(POW put)와 저금리로 주식시장이 실적과 무관하게 상승 중이며, 실적은 하락 추세. 연준이 달러 가치를 희생해 시장을 떠받치므로 인플레이션 헤지 수요가 커져 금광주가 수혜. 식료품 등 실물 물가가 주가보다 더 오를 것이라고 주장. 대선 관련으로는 트럼프 재선 확률을 약 40% 정도로 보며 경기침체 우려와 민주당 후보들의 공약 경쟁을 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Yeah, Peter, tell me about um why is the stock market still up? What are your thoughts on that? Well, the the Fed is printing a tremendous amount of money. The Fed is also actually buying corporate bonds uh which is underwriting the cost of corporations uh of going into debt and is also reducing the risk uh of those companies because you know you're taking a lot of bankruptcy risk off the table because the Fed is basically saying we're not going to let these companies go bankrupt no matter how poorly they're run no matter how much debt they have.

02. And so, you know, you've got uh the POW put, which is certainly bigger than the Bernaki put or the Greenspan put. So, if you have this floor beneath the market, well, obviously the market is going to go up. Uh because it's not earnings that are driving the market. Earnings are falling. Uh everything has gone wrong for the market.

03. The only thing that's gone right is the Fed. So, this market is 100% a byproduct of Fed cheap money. But ultimately, it's going to be real things that are going to go up in price more than stocks, right? You're going to see a bigger increase at the supermarket for the cost of food than you're going to see in the stock market uh for the, you know, for the prices of stocks.

04. I think the stocks that are going to benefit the most from this uh PAL put are going to be the gold stocks because in order to put a floor beneath the stock market, they have to knock the floor out from under the dollar. They have to sacrifice the dollar to save the market and to, you know, maintain the bubble.

05. And by sacrificing the dollar, you're going to dramatically increase the earnings for these gold mining companies. And you're going to increase the need for a hedge against inflation, which is the gold that these companies have in the ground and that they're mining and selling. So, if people really understood this, it's the gold stocks that they would be buying, you know, not the tech stocks.

06. Okay. Is Trump going to get reelected? Well, you know, I've been thinking that he wasn't going to be reelected, and I still think that the odds are that he will not be, but it's not a sure thing. I mean, I think Trump does have a chance of getting reelected. I think he has a good chance, but I think it's less than 5050.

07. You know, maybe it's 40 60 that he gets re-elected. I think the the wild card is twofold. One is maybe the voters will blame the recession on CO 19 rather than Trump which normally if the economy is in bad shape uh the incumbent gets blamed but if it's perceived that it's not their fault maybe if Trump can blame it on China then you know that may help and of course you know we're going to get some kind of rebound in the third quarter the beginning of what will look like a V and so maybe those improving numbers numbers that we get going into the election could be helpful.

08. Right? I think we're going to roll over in the fourth quarter, but we won't see those numbers until after the election. And the other thing that Trump's got going, other than, you know, being the incumbent and having a lot of money to spend, he has a lot more money to spend now than he had last time.

09. Um, but, uh, Biden is just a really bad candidate. I mean, so it's, you know, the Democrats could have had a much stronger candidate than the one that that they chose. So, uh, Biden being up there is is a positive, uh, for Trump. But again, I think the reason I think Trump loses is because we will be in a recession.

10. The economy is not going to be better than it was when he was elected. I think there are a lot of states that he barely won, right, that put him over the top in the electoral college. I mean, he lost the popular vote last time and he's going to lose the popular vote again. So the key is going to be the electoral college and the states that he won.

11. He barely won. It wasn't like he you know he it was it was you know a slaughter. I mean he squeaked by with narrow margins of victory in these swing states. Will he be able to do that again? I think when he ran in 2016 he was more of an aspirational unknown quantity. He was promising a lot of good stuff and I think people were willing to take a shot.

12. I think a lot of Democrats who went through eight years of Obama and they hoped that they'd have change and they didn't get anything right. It was more of the same. I think there were some disgruntled Democrats and independents uh who uh you know who like Trump's message that he was a gamecher that he was going to drain the swamp that he was going to make America great again.

13. So, I think people were willing to take a shot on that because they they already knew what they would get if they if they voted for Clinton and that was going to be more of the same. And I think again Clinton was a bad candidate, you know, just like uh Biden is a bad candidate. I think Clinton was worse.

14. She was even more polarizing I think than than Biden. Uh but so Trump won, but I think now a lot of people four years later are going to see that wait a minute, nothing has changed. my life is not better because Trump is president. I'm not earning more. I don't have less debt. You know, the economy isn't better.

15. You know, and when Trump was running, he said, "Look, all the numbers are phony. Don't believe the government numbers. The unemployment number is phony. The GDP number is phony. The inflation numbers are phony." Now, Trump is saying, "The economy is great. Look at the numbers." Or at least look what the numbers were before COVID.

16. I had the lowest unemployment. Yes. But it was the same phony numbers uh that you were criticizing when Obama was president. Uh so I I I think a lot of those people are are are not going to vote for him again. I think now they might actually try socialism because now, you know, the Democrats have really upped uh the ante when it comes to free stuff because Trump is basically a Democrat.

17. I mean, and so are the Republicans. They're promising all sorts of free stuff. Uh, but I think if the election comes down to who could promise the most free stuff, I think it's hard for the Republicans to outbid the Democrats in an auction of free stuff. I mean, basically, the public is going to have the choice between two Democrats.

18. Well, if you have to pick between two Democrats, you might as well take the real one instead of the the fake one, right? So, uh, that that's where I think the edge goes to to Biden. Wow. Wow.