BITCOIN vs GOLD 💰 Anthony Scaramucci on Peter Schiff, Bitcoin & Gold

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결론: 스카라무치는 비트코인이 네트워크 가치와 이용자 증가(1.8억 명→10억 명 목표)로 금 시가총액(7~8조 달러)까지 갈 수 있다고 본다. 금 관련 논쟁: 금은 가치가 사라지지 않으며 0으로 가지 않는다고 본다. 금 가치의 약 5%만 보석·제조에 쓰이고 나머지 95%는 인식된 가치라고 주장한다. 비트코인 가치 근거: 네트워크 효과(메트칼프 법칙)로 가치가 커진다. 이동성과 송금 편의성(USB에 2억 달러 보관 가능)을 강점으로 든다. 인식 가치 비유: 미키 맨틀 카드가 520만 달러, 살바토르 문디가 4억 5천만 달러에 팔린 사례로 희소성과 인식이 가치를 만든다고 설명한다. 워런 버핏·찰리 멍거 전망: 두 사람이 비트코인을 직접 공부하면 생각이 바뀔 것이라고 본다. 레이 달리오, 스탠 드러켄밀러, 폴 튜더 존스 등 유명 투자자 사례를 든다. 아마존 사례: 2000년 제프 베이조스 발표를 버핏이 거절한 일화를 들며, 1997년 상장 투자금 1만 달러가 현재 2,114만 달러가 됐지만 여러 번 50% 이상 급락을 견뎌야 했다고 말한다. 리스크: 본인은 비트코인 전도사가 아니라 회의론자 투자자라고 말한다. 가격 변동성이 크고 중간에 큰 하락이 반복된다. 피터 쉬프 전망: 쉬프는 끝까지 인정하지 않을 것이며, 놓치는 것에 대한 고통 때문에 결국 비트코인을 보유하고 있을 것이라고 농담한다.

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01. yeah you mentioned gold there and you know peter schiff will tell you gold is real gold is in jewelry gold is in production and future production and you're talking about something i can't see um something that's digital and something that's a ponzi scheme and it's only valuable someone else's think it's valuable and i've seen you guys debate and there's gold bugs out there and there's the fuddy duddies like you said the boomers that still can't see it and are wondering what's going on i'm curious what buffett and monger think right now and even what they'll think in a year if you sat him down but he probably isn't still at rat poison but he's probably somewhere around there what do you say to those people that say i can't see it i can't do it and also as you asked peter on the end of your debate i think he did with the economist when must they capitulate what is the evidence needed for them to say okay you're right well i think in peter's case it's never although i always sheepishly say to him he's probably long bitcoin right now because he can't take the pain of missing out like this but i think you know listen in that debate um you know he made a lot of good points i am not negative on gold i don't see gold trading to zero gold has been with us for 5 500 years i'm not negative on it i'm just saying that bitcoin is providing something into the international commercial activity that is very valuable a result of which it will become more and more valuable i do think it will get to the market cap of gold so bitcoin right now is 800 a trillion dollars in market cap and gold is seven or eight trillion i do think that bitcoin will trade to that so he'll say that it's worthless but then he's he's not factoring in the value of the network as i tried to point out bitcoin is the network so excuse me just stop and think about that for a second we've got 180 million users now on their way to the billion you can't tell me that that's not valuable professor robert metcalf who invented the theorem of medcavs law would tell you that that's valuable that's the process that made facebook and google and all these companies valuable but he'd say well you know you can't manufacture with it et cetera but let me tell you something gold's representation of its value is only five percent of it in the jewelry and the manufacturing the other 95 of it is the perception of value you have to remember that about the way people think and work there is a friend of mine that bought a cardboard rectangular shaped piece of paper it's cardboard it had four color process print on it from the mid-century the 20th century there's a picture of mickey mantle on that card it's not even a great picture of them it's not it's not hd quality or anything like that that card just sold for 5.2 million dollars well there's an art uh the salvador mundi you know there's a big debate over who actually painted it uh but people think the vinci painted it it sold for 450 million dollars what is it exactly well it's a stretched piece of canvas with acrylic paint on it okay so how could that be worth anything and then if you stop and you think about it well it is to human beings because there's scarcity there's artistry there's a whole set of things from a sociological and psychological perspective that make things worth something to human beings and i think we're where peter is missing out on this is those cryptographs are worth something because they are perceived to be worth something and they're worth something because i know i can transfer those to somebody that believe they're worth something the same way i can transfer that piece of fabric with ben franklin's face on it it's just a piece of fabric it's not worth anything but it is to somebody okay and and that is tied to the way human beings have interacted for five thousand five hundred years bitcoin represents an improvement on that um one of my friends who will remain nameless he lives in a uh monarchical dictatorial society so we're just gonna leave the country nameless too he said well let me tell you something he said if i gotta leave the country i can hide 200 million dollars of bitcoin in my body somewhere okay on a usb i can't do the same thing with gold and it just tells you about the user friendliness and the transferability of what bitcoin is representing so listen you know you asked about buffett i just want to address this for a second anybody that's done the homework the homework that i've done or you've done has changed their mind uh i'm not a bitcoin evangelist you know brian i don't think jesus got together with moses they had a baby and they named the baby bitcoin that is not me i'm an investor who's a skeptic i'm an investor that's been burned many times in my career so i have to always be watchful of that but i can tell you if ray dalio said he didn't like bitcoin and he did his homework he now owns bitcoin stan druckenmiller i don't like bitcoin did his homework he now owns bitcoin that would also include paul tudor jones steve cohen from point 72 now the met owner uh daniel loeb the billionaire investor at third point so my point is if warren buffett and charlie munger did the work i think they would see bitcoin very differently uh last quick point i was at the allen and company sun valley media conference with mr buffett and a gentleman by the name of jeff bezos in the year 2000 jeff bezos was making a presentation about a company called amazon and he was explaining yes i'm losing money but i'm scaling right now and as i scale i'll be able to sell everything on this internet platform and a result of which this will be very valuable because of medcast law the next speaker was warren buffett he said yeah that sounds nice i will never invest with you you're not making any money and a result of which i don't get it and i'm going to stay inside my circle of competence well if you had if you'd invested with jeffrey bezos on may 15 1997 you put 10 thousand dollars into the initial public offering it's worth 21 million 140 000 today however you would have to subject yourself to eight periods of time where it dropped at least 50 percent one period of time where it dropped 85 and a half percent and there was a barons news article cover story said amazon.bomb the final days of amazon and so what happens to believe medcavs law they adapt they have huge volatility curves as people are trying to get an understanding of what's going on uh but the they ascend and i think if warren buffett or charlie munger got outside of that style box and did their homework the ray the way ray galio did it i think you would find them to be users and owners of bitcoin