저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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S&P500 상승은 소수 빅테크 5개(아마존·페이스북·구글·마이크로소프트·애플) 의존도가 높아 취약하며, 단기 바닥은 형성된 것으로 보여 단기 상승 가능성을 본다. 실적 및 시장 구조: 이번 주 애플을 제외한 빅테크 대부분 실적이 부진했고, S&P500 내 이들 5개 비중은 최고점 25%에서 약 20%로 하락했으나 지수는 반등했다. 과거 'generals가 쓰러지면 바닥' 논리가 맞아 보인다고 평가. 단기 전망: 금리·외부 충격 없이 시장이 빠지기 어렵다고 보아 단기적으로 상승 전망이지만, 나중에는 되돌림이 올 것이며 그때 포지션을 바꿀 것이라고 언급. 메타(페이스북) 분석: 2016년 이후 애플은 자사주 매입에 약 3,960억 달러를 썼지만 페이스북은 약 1,000억 달러에 그쳤다. 2021년 9월 이후 메타 주가 급락은 자사주 매입에도 불구하고 신규 직원 채용으로 주식 희석이 진행된 것이 드러나면서 시작됐다. 리얼리티랩스에 2년간 250억 달러를 썼고 2023년 이후 연 250억 달러 수준 지출이 이어질 것으로 봤으며, 이는 아이폰 개발비(약 36억 달러), 맨해튼 프로젝트(약 230억 달러), 테슬라 누적 투자 등과 비교된다. 지정학·정책: 중국은 인구 구조 역풍이 커지고 있어 대외 모험을 할 시기가 아니며, 칩스법 등 정책 효과를 더 지켜봐야 한다고 주장. 현재 대중국 전략이 효과를 내고 있어 유지가 맞다고 평가. 빅테크 시대 종료: 빅테크가 플랫폼 규칙을 정하던 시대가 끝나고 있으며, 이것이 주식시장에 미칠 영향을 향후 논의하자고 제안. 리스크: 러시아·우크라이나 등 외생 사건이 시장에 부정적 영향을 줄 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
I mean what's incredible on this chart is that you know when when everybody talks about being along the S P 500 it was always really a proxy for being long Amazon Facebook Google Microsoft and Apple and at the peak you know in May of this year it was still you know 25 cents of every single dollar of the S P 500 were these five companies and you know we always said the market bottom will be when the generals quote unquote get shot you know to borrow a Fraser and Gavin Baker and it looks like the generals have been shot yeah and what's incredible is this week every single one of those companies other than Apple really reported pretty crappy earnings they got totally taken to the woodshed the percentage of the of these companies as a percentage of the s p is now you know off by 500 basis points it's down to 20 yet the markets are ripping higher today so I think it's kind of what we talked about three weeks ago like the bottom is kind of in for the short term you know so it's really exciting actually to see I think this is the point where you have to now start to get pretty constructive about where things are going because if this stuff could not bring the market down it's hard to see something other than an exogenous event probably some Russia Ukraine event really having a negative impact so to me I'm kind of like I don't know it seems like pretty bullish I think the stock market is going up then it'll go back down because I think what David said is right but for the short term this thing is going up short term up and then we've generally been positioned for it to go up and uh and at some point we will reverse and position for it to go back down but it's going up I think David's generally right we do not have time for adventurism right now because even before we engage in some of these other places there are a lot of you know uh headwinds that are working against for so for example in China you have these massive demographic headwinds that are just building um we have to see what the chips act does in terms of follow through to China's ability to expand militarily or technologically there are all of these things that that you owe as a citizen of the United States to see some more data on the ground in terms of its empirical impact before you re-underwrite a different strategy right now the strategy is working you know we we are observing this you know one China policy I think that's the right thing to do and now let all of this other stuff play out one part of it is meta okay but one part of it is actually about what we talked about a few episodes ago which is like this big Tech put right where they Define the rules of the game on the field for every other startup and I think the third part is just about like the era of big Tech being over and what it means for the stock market if I think if you section it out in those three ways Jason we can have a pretty rich convo I'd love to tease somebody where do you want to start okay so let's let's start with meta so Nick can you please throw up Apple versus meta for a second and let me just give you guys the the talk track and then maybe we can go from there so when you look at Apple versus meta there's this really interesting thing that comes up which is in 2016 you know and we've said this before you could not give Apple stock away they were generating a ton of cash it was sitting on the balance sheet in many ways Facebook was doing the same thing and what's interesting to note here is the black line is the performance of Apple stock as as they've given back and they've used a ton of their own balance sheet cash to buy back the stock okay so they've spent 396 billion dollars since 2016 to buy back stock in the same time Facebook has spent almost 100 billion now here is here's where you start to see the Divergence so you would have said well shouldn't Facebook's stock have reacted in the same way and for a very long time it actually looked like it was right until about September 21 and then obviously this thing fell off a cliff and the reason why it started to fall off a cliff was somebody started to notice that hold on a second even though you're buying back all these shares the bottom of the funnel right you're leaking all of these shares to all of these new employees why are you hiring so many people and this is when people started to uncover what was happening above the line at Facebook and is what caused this massive dispersion so Nick if you go to the first chart so what has actually been going on above the line here's what's going on if you look at the light purple bar Facebook in the last two years have spent 25 billion dollars on reality dabs and they said that they're going to spend you know meaningfully more in 2023 and then sustain that investment for a while so if you do a little bit of math if they spent you know they spend around 4 billion a quarter right now so 16 billion a year that'll go to 25 billion in 2023 and then they'll sustain that what that means is that over this you know 12 or 13 year life of reality Labs as we've seen it these guys will have spent a quarter of a trillion dollars and what I did here was I just wanted to understand hilarious I wanted to understand a quarter of a trillion dollars in the context of other major leaps in humanity so at the left is what Apple spent in its entirety by the way these are all inflation-adjusted dollars for today Apple spent 3.6 billion dollars to create the first iPhone and what they did was they said every subsequent version of the iPhone would only be funded from the cash flow and profits of the generation before it right so they used consumer demand as their guiding principle so it's a very incremental approach iPhone 1 iPhone 2 and now we're on iPhone you know 14 or whatever 13 but the point is it took 3.6 billion to get that Juggernaut off the ground um the Manhattan Project will cost 23 billion in today's dollars to create the atomic bomb Tesla in its entire life spent 25 billion to get free cash flow profitability and they took this incremental approach as well
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