"DON'T BUY THEESE THINGS!" | Jeremy Grantham

요약 보기

결론: 현재 고평가된 금융 황금기는 끝나가고 있으며, 비트코인 등 디지털 자산은 저장 수단이 아니라 투기이므로 비싼 자산을 피하고 가치주와 현금 비중을 확보하라는 주장. 1) 시장 구조: 21세기 들어 PER은 과거 평균보다 약 56% 높고, 이익률은 과거 50~60년 평균보다 30~35% 높다고 지적. 2) 독점과 정책: 기업이 정치력을 키워 자본세·배당세·이자·양도차익 세율이 낮아졌고, 규제기관도 상당 부분 포획됨. 대형 기술기업(FANG)은 사실상 독점이며, 이는 이익에는 좋지만 성장에는 나쁘고 정부가 개입을 고민하기 시작했다고 봄. 3) 디지털 자산: 암호화폐 기술 자체는 인터넷처럼 유용할 수 있으나, 현재 가격 상승은 상승 기대에 의한 것으로 '벌거벗은 임금님' 같다고 평가. 비트코인은 실질적 쓸모가 없고 더 나은 후속 코인에 밀린다고 봄. 변동성이 커서 저장 수단이라는 주장은 사기(hoax)에 가깝다고 주장. 4) 대응 전략: 비싼 시장·비싼 주식 회피, 가치 중시, 저평가 국가와 종목 탐색, 현금 준비금 보유 후 좋은 매수 기회를 기다릴 것. 5) 심리 경고: 모든 거품 말기에 나타나는 FOMO(놓칠 것에 대한 두려움)를 경계해야 하며, 본인도 수십 년 전 거품에 참여했다가 큰 손실을 입은 경험을 언급. 6) 출연자 전망: 금리·환율·개별 종목에 대한 구체적 가격 예측이나 1~3개월 방향성 발언은 없음. 전반적으로 장기적 고평가 해소를 경고.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I think it is ending I'm trying to write a paper which is basically the end of the golden era or Goldilocks and and three hungry bears um it's um everything has been different for the 20 years of the 21st Century the PE is average not just a little bit higher but 56 percent higher profit margins average 30 35 percent higher than they had in the previous 50 60 years uh everything seemed to work out corporations got a lot of political power the taxes on Capital all dropped tax on dividends taxed on interest rates tax on capital gains all came down most of the uh most of the regulatory bodies were somewhat captured by corporations and they have had a golden era we've never seen uh bigger profits but concentration in each industry has increased and the fangs that are remarkable companies are in their own way instant monopolies so the monopolistic feature of of our economy today and somewhat around the world has increased this is very good for profits it's not so good for growth and the governments are beginning to Twitch a bit what's your view on digital assets Jeremy should everyone hold some no I I don't think they're uh assets I think they embedded technology that may turn out rather like the internet to be useful Here There and Everywhere and when they are useful and when they're making money in the traditional way um then you value it like any other money making Enterprise but while they just sit there and they go up in price because people are persuaded that they will go up in price it's very much a question of the emperor and his clothes I think uh Bitcoin in particular it does nothing for anybody and is superseded by a whole generation of smarter and and more effective uh cryptocurrencies many of which in their turn do not make money in the traditional way and if you do so I'm sure the idea uh embedded in cryptocurrency will be around for perhaps forever but I'm equally certain that most of the value uh today as a store of value is a hoax it is not a store of value the everyone can agree that the volatility is massive it goes up and down with the high risk stocks what is the point of a store of value that trades like a hyperspect I mean this is not this is not the principle golden comparison uh with several thousand years of practice has been uh boringly stable throughout the last couple of years I should know I earn some uh stay out of trouble make sure you don't buy expensive markets expensive stocks emphasize value cheapness for what you get hunt around for the cheaper countries hunt around for the cheaper stocks within those countries uh carry some cash reserves they'll be perhaps some very nice buying opportunities and um whatever you do get rid of this fear of missing out this terrible lust to participate in profit making that comes along at the end of every one of the great bubbles it is incredibly seductive very hard to resist being there done that myself a few decades ago made afford you and then wipe myself out a very salutary and I I would wish on most of you that you avoided