저자: JonNajarian · 외국인
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결론: 2017년 7월 공화당 의료보험 개혁(ACA 대체) 법안이 표결 부족으로 사실상 무산됐으며, 이로 인해 보험주 등 헬스케어주가 하락했다는 진단이다. 의료보험 정책 주장: 진행자들은 법안이 실패하도록 설계됐고 결국 단일지불자(싱글페이어) 체제로 가는 수순이라고 주장한다. 개인 의무가입 구조가 건강한 젊은층의 참여를 얻지 못해 보험 거래소에 고위험군만 몰린다는 논리다. 헬스케어주 흐름: UNH, LPNT, AET 등 보험주가 하락 중이며, 2017년 법안 통과 당시 관련 옵션과 주식이 상승했다고 언급했다. 보험사 구제(bailout) 필요성도 제기했다. 대안 제시: 주 경계를 넘는 보험 판매 허용(주간 경쟁 촉진)이 보험료를 낮출 수 있다고 주장했다. 항공권 가격 경쟁 사례를 들었다. 종목별 거래: 아이언 자산 관련 Cleveland-Cliffs 계열 신규 콜 매수(New Core Steel 언급), Sienna(SNN 관련 CEN) 10월 콜 매수, TRIP 콜 스프레드, NVDA 일부 수익 실현, TLRD(Tailored Brands) 물타기 후 절반 매도, FB 7월 28일 170 콜 매수 흐름 언급 후 본인은 풋 매도 포지션 보유. 리스크/조건: 옵션 거래는 두 번(매수·매도) 해야 실현 손익이 확정된다고 강조. 페이스북 실적발표(7/26) 전 기대감을 언급함.
다듬은 글
Today's July 18th, 2017. This is the Investitute podcast. And John, the big story right now as we speak is Congress does not have the votes for the healthcare and Trump just went on TV. Yeah. Yeah. They don't have the votes to repeal and replace and then they didn't have the votes for straight out repeal.
Um so the president just came on and said, "Okay, so now the strategy is just uh a recognition." He said that it is dead, that it's died and it's dead. And uh that uh that's the way he's going to deal with it now apparently is that he's just saying the healthc care bill is dead. There is, you know, Obamacare will be gone in months and now the Democrats are going to have to come to the table and negotiate with us.
This is what he said. I'm not saying that's what'll happen, but that is what he said. And uh what else could possibly happen, John? I mean, this thing is was set up to fail. If you talk to some people, um that's they they say that, oh, they set this up so that we would get a single payer by it failing and it's failing and I massively don't get me started.
Look at all the stocks in this healthc care industry. We've been following this for what now? Eight years, John. UNH, LPN, AET, all these stocks are down. Remember back in the day when you came in the office and you said to me, "Hey, they got this thing called Cloer. It's this parliamentary uh uh procedure." And I said, "What's that?" And he you said, "It's something new.
You I guess you had heard about it somewhere." And um that was the parliamentary. Yeah. they're going to pass it through reconciliation and all that kind of stuff. And I and I said, "No way." As I made it an espresso. And I went over and had like my 10th espresso of the morning. And I'm like, "What the hell is this?" And I started talking to somebody.
I think I Googled it. And sure enough, it came to pass. They pulled a slick one on us and passed this thing to begin with. And guess what happened to all those options and all those stocks? They all went up. Y every one of them. Yeah. I mean, just look at those charts, folks. Um, again, if we wanted better health care, this wasn't the way to go about it.
Most of us knew that. If you wanted to get prices down, it also wasn't the way to do it to basically offer bailouts to insurance companies or, you know, slush funds for insurance companies. Um, the way to do it would have been to take some baby steps to make insurance viable across state lines. um to push it out there that uh people would have to um uh you know have some real competition and again we're in an era Andrew where people create apps and make billions of dollars.
So you can't tell me which some had told us in the past oh yeah but you know it takes a while to get a network in a state so you know it's not going to happen overnight. I realize it won't happen overnight, but if you made uh all insurance in the United States viable across state lines, you would have seen competition almost immediately.
Almost, not immediately, but almost. Because again that if they would have streamlined it and they would have said look because this is important to us which it should be um we're going to make uh we're going to streamline the process make it so new companies can come in and um you know set up in Illinois in California in Texas in wherever um it would have dropped premiums not to zero but it would have reduced premiums same way competition in the airlines line space has cut airfares.
I mean, who other other than somebody in Cleveland perhaps, no offense, Cleveland, most of us have seen airfares drop? The exception being if they basically uh like Continental left very many of these cities where they just weren't profitable. Um but that's, you know, the nature of the beast. If you're not profitable, you're not going to stay there.
So, where they have a monopoly, prices are high. Where they don't, prices are fair. You and I pay less, Andrew, in most cases, with the exception of your Jersey Shore trip. We pay less in most cases for airfares than we did 10 years ago. Yeah, they're cheaper. But aside from all that, John, that's the deep end of the pool in this debate.
And anybody can talk about the whatifs. And I sit there and I point to the what we see. We saw and see people trading around the votes on healthcare and you can't tell me and you it's it's like you almost like you hit a brick wall when you talk to one of these libs and you look them in the face and say why are these options going up seven points out of the money and they look at you like I'm like this is real money.
These are real options. Somebody thinks these stocks are going up. This is eight years ago now, folks. This is, you know, this is a long time ago. This is exact. This is what's going on. These are real bets placed on these stocks. Somebody in Congress knows they're trading around this. And there's nothing wrong with that.
Technically, it's not illegal. But then you sit there and go, "Wow, this and that." It's like, "This is real. This is real money." Anyway, now we're seeing all these stocks down, but not that much, which means that it probably will get I don't know once you start getting Yeah, they're gonna have to they have to fix it.
My gut says, Andrew, that they're going to have to uh have some sort of bailout for the insurance companies that are fleeing those exchanges like crazy because they're not making money. Yeah, they're because the whole It's a Rup Goldberg. Uh look it up, folks. But it's a Rube Goldberg and basically they set it up so that um a lot of people who didn't need health care or at least are less likely to need it than the older people um are going to pay for those who do need it.
Um again, the older people, the infirmed and so forth. So if they set it up like that that you know you who you know younger folks who are healthier less likely to draw on the system are out there buying it you know paying for it because it's mandated that they do it. Um that's one thing. Well guess what?
They're not doing that because nobody likes paying for something they're not going to use. So they're not doing that. So instead, you just have a bunch more folks piling into these exchanges, and uh it's just a nightmare for the people that are trying to uh um uh pay for the health care that they're going to have to provide because they have to take a bunch of other folks.
Um and they're not they're not getting the healthy folks that basically just pay in and don't uh draw out of the system. So, it's pretty much set up exactly like you said, set up to fail to get to a singlepayer system. All right. This whole thing's giving me a Let's move on. I'm done with the healthcare.
So sick of talking about I'm done. I'm done. Done with healthare. Never again on this podcast will we talk about healthcare. Just kidding. I I wish. What are we doing that's new? And speaking of new, did you see that video I put up the new core? Yeah, I liked it. I know that you weren't like it's down, but yeah, I I put it up just for the fun.
I mean, it was a little Instagram. If you go to John's Instagram, you can see it because I'm trying to come up with new and exciting ways to show activity. It's down, but I don't know. Fist full of steel. What do you think? NE News. Uh yeah, I it was not huge. I mean, huge paper is like 5,000 10,000 contracts.
This wasn't that. Uh, but there was early on some pretty nice pop in some new core call buying, so we cited it. They're one of the more efficient places that make steel in the United States. Um, I just thought it was cool to put Rage Against the Machine and a guy in a um silver smelting jacket looking, you know, Ramsteinish.
That's coming. Yeah, I just thought that was cool. It's not our best call, but it is a a call. And um that was new. What else? Good stuff. Take a look at Sienna CEN. What's going on? Um we still have well upside calls October 26 uh calls in Sienna CEN. Um I bought those. It the stock dipped beneath 25 today and I bought those calls.
Um I like the setup. Uh let's see what else. Um oh uh Trip Adviser. There was a decent sized spread went up in there, Andrew, as far as bullish activity. CIP is the symbol. Yep. And uh you know, those were two of them that I traded today. I did yesterday some Nvidia NVDA. Um and that one worked out already.
Uh and I'm still with it. I haven't taken profits. I'm still with it. Okay. Uh I got out a half of my turd. Excuse me. T tailored. Tailored. Turd. Yeah. Just add another little bar to that L and you got turd. T L R D. It went up a little bit and I sold half. I held my nose when Where is it? Uh it's 11:24.
That thing was like $9.95. And I said on the lows, you're going to love the way this hurts. So I just went and bought some more. And I I was like, you know, fine. You know, it pays a dividend. I'm just going to do it. you know, I'm gonna add double down dollar cost smart enough to to take some off. Yeah.
Then it went up to like where I got in the first time and I'm like, "Okay, fine. I'm taking half off and now my cost basis is lower." And was it it was a risky trade, but you know what? I'm in it right now and um I'll hold on to it. But listen to what Andrew is telling you folks because it's worth the price of admission.
Um there's always two parts to a trade. you buy something until you sell it, um, you haven't really made a profit. It's only on paper. So, if Andrew bought in when the stock was 1090 and then it fell to 990 and he said, "I'm going to double down." And he bought more at 990 and it goes back to 11. Obviously, he's okay.
Um, but what did he do? He did a trade. He didn't just say, "Well, on paper, I'm up a lot here." Take it off. take take the profits and sticking with his original trade for the rest. But um he took off part when he doubled like I and started to initiate a short trade, the sell and then the buy. But there's always two parts to a trade or it's not a trade.
And I'll write against it if it goes back up again. if it takes another little move, I'll and then I'll take the other um position I have and then right against it. But that's that was my week. Nice doing that. And I got some stuff rolling off at the end of this week. Uh my AMDs are going to roll off at the end of the week.
Stuff I've written against already. So, we're closing out. I'll throw one more. I'll throw one more out there, Andrew. Um, Facebook Facebook FB they have earnings July 26th. I see upside call buying today. It's a little far ahead for July 26th earnings, but nonetheless, you look at the July 28th expiration.
They were buying the uh 170s, I want to say, Andrew, just in the last few, you know, last hour. Um, watch that one. Watch Facebook. It's early, but you know, for those of you who do establish trades further out, um I was in there selling puts and it's already worked in Facebook as stocks up two bucks today to a new alltime all-time high.
What were we seeing last Oh, we saw the August 175s on our podcast last Tuesday. Yeah. Yeah, a week ago we had the August 175s and I thought that was kind of a sold I thought that was a pipe dream then we're getting closer to it. A lot closer. Yeah, the stock traded to about 162 today, didn't it? Or something like that.
It said 162 right now. Nice. And what are they buying? What what calls? Uh I think they were buying the July 28th expiration. Oh man, I think it was the 170 calls. Jeez, this thing's going to pop like crazy. No thanks. I I know you're in the trade. No thanks for me. I I Yeah, I just sold puts instead.
I'm in the short puts for that one. I have one turret on the table, so I don't need more. Okay, man. I'll let you go. All right. Well, thanks folks. Remember, you can uh subscribe to the podcast through iTunes or through YouTube and tell a friend about it. Leave us a comment. If you want to leave us a question in the comment section and we answer, we'll uh send you some. So, thanks for listening.
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