저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
조정은 이미 여러 구간에서 진행 중이며 대폭락은 아니고 중소형주 로테이션 조정이 이어질 것으로 봄. 지수 신고가는 시간이 걸릴 것이고 일부 가치주는 이번 주·다음 주 저점 매력이 있을 수 있음. 공기업 주식(PSU)은 장기 성장 전망. 은행은 PSU은행이 민간은행보다 저평가로 선호 여지. 항공·관광(인디고, 리조트 등)을 장기 테마로 봄. 본인은 은행 투자는 없다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Vijay Keria and he Johnson right now to try and tell us what to do in a scenario like this should we call you Lord Keria because you sang the song that Lord Bobby Deol spoke out in that movie but Mr. Keria good having you thank you for joining in I know that the last time that we spoke you were a bit circumspect about that you know the whole construct of the market is this on expected lines and do you think it can fall further from here so first of all thank you very much for inviting me the lad in town is Bharti Mittal or Sunil Mittal Bharti is the new lad in town and as you said I think of course it was bound to happen I know that it does not happen the market never moves one sided like this so I was more concerned about the euphoria that was happening in this market now look what all names have started coming up Mahadev and look at this and that you crazy people Don't do this, do n't defame the name of Mahadev.
So, right now, all these are new tricks, but all these tricks are old, and these keep coming into the market in new forms and names, so it was bound to happen, and I am happy that it is happening in this market. The market will correct itself, and that will set a trend for a new bull market and a new upswing.
Mr. Kedia, what is your sense? How much do I mean? Do you expect the pain to last for a particular period of time, and will the market need to fall? Let's say by a particular number of percentage points, but before they settle, one thing I understand is that I don't think the market is going to crush, like it seemed that that big bull market is still far away in some, mid-cap, large, you know, 5000 shares are there in mid-microcap and so I am not expecting this market to crush.
I am just expecting an adjustment will happen in this. In the market, many stocks have fallen 30-40 per cent from their peak, but they have also fallen three times, four times to 300-400 per cent from their bottom, so there are ways to look at it. So, I feel that some of the stocks you will find value in may already be there, you may find value in this week and the coming week, and but as for the index, I think it will take some time to show a new high, and even those stocks which have corrected will also take some time to show a new high.
Kedia ji, when we spoke to you in the budget, Tamanna, here, you had said very clearly that there is going to be some kind of pain, a correction of 10 to 15 per cent, my question is that there has been more and more and it is there, so a lot of factors, you know, we are talking about the 15th March.
Whose name will come up in the impact electoral bonds? Stress test is going on, will it stabilize a bit after that? I think the market will take some time to stabilize. Correction has already happened in many pockets, in many pockets, and this market will take some more time to correct, but I do n't think there will be a major recession in this market, that this market will crash drastically.
I don't think so. The sentiment will remain a little sideways or a little weak. The stocks that have not reacted yet may react more. Mid cap and small cap stocks, which do not have much value, have reacted a little more. They are yet to correct a little. This does not mean that all the stocks that have fallen will also fall.
This will happen in rotation. Earlier also, when I used to grow, it was not like that all the stocks rose together. First 500 stocks rose, then others kept waiting, then the second row came, then the third row came. Something similar will happen in the fall as well, and once you take some time out, Hi Vijay, it's also Sameena joining in, so very Clearly you believe that this is going to be more long and painful and short and sharp in terms of a fall few months ago the only theme on the street was anything government facing become a blind buy with the stocks down 20 to 30 so railways defence fertilizers election around the corner the stocks are still attractive to you would you would you recommended because they are attractive at 30 higher no as I said they might have come down by 30 but they have also reason at 300 I personally would not like to buy any this PSC stock that does not mean there is some problem in those stocks future is very bright but I usually like to enter into the stocks one the journey is about to begin so personally I would not like I would not like to buy all those shares but you may find value in some of the stocks but not every Stocks, I don't think that every stock is becoming screaming by me, so yes, we will take a small break, viewers will take a very short break, but today's break is done, you take a dialogue for the viewers, what can they expect on the other side, I will tell you later, tell me what can they expect from you and what the viewers should see, at this time, if you still buy any shares, then there is only one simple guru mantra here Tamanna ji, that you buy any shares, think that right now it has fallen to 30, right, if you are also buying, then understand that maybe it will fall further to 20, if you make your mind so strong that brother, it is okay, it falls to 30, it will fall further to 20, no one can defeat you, here I am talking about good cities, all these other people who are manipulated, operated, whose names nowadays everyone gets to know through social media, salute them from a distance, at least salute them, you should also mention their names Don't take the path which you don't want to go, its name should not be taken Mr.
KD I quickly moved on to bank shares, some PSU banks have outperformed private sector banks over the last three and a half to four years, do you now think it is time to think about the trade in banks, may be switch to private banks and move away from PSU banks and if yes, if you got a preferred pick, it would be great, no, I would personally not think so, I still find PSU banks cheaper than these private banks and so I think this, this thing will keep on continuing and this PSU bank should keep on performing better, then I don't know better than private banks, but should keep on performing better and I think they still have more, you have no room to go Vijay ji, which banks do you like today, do you know which ones you like, PSU banks one note each, currently there is the valuation gap Close between public sector banks and private sector banks and it you know that sense negative on SBI would you still bet on an SBI versus an ADFC and which would be your top favorites, I tell you frankly I do not have any investment in banks but I just follow the entire market equally, so what I feel is that you should see one thing yourself that these PSC banks, as per which all the other shares, all the shares have fallen at 30, 30, 40, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200, 300, 310, 320, 330, 340, 350, 360, 370, 380, 390, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 900, 1000, 1100, 1200, 1300, 1400, 1500, 1600, 1700, 1800, 1900, 2000, 2100, 2200, 2300, 2400, 2500, 2600, 2700, 2800, 2900, 3000, 3100, 3200, 3300, 3400, 3500, 3600, 3700, 3800, 3900, 40 ...
So, in this regard, I think that SBI may be good, and other small banks may be as well. I am not very steady in them. I had taken Bank of Maharashtra once in the past, but I exited them because their pace is a bit slow, but these will do well in the future. I think so. Vijay ji, which small caps will you pick now?
You are an expert in picking them and they have suffered the biggest blow. Anything to you think and any space to you think needs to see and in an opportunity right now. Look, I don't know about small caps. Even yesterday, the market fell, so of course this started coming to my mind. I also have many shares which fell from 25 to 30 and see, the market is so unique that we are talking about this today.
Many of my shares which have fallen at 30 had made their top four months ago, so they have been falling for four months. It is not that they fell only yesterday. Yesterday also, when that storm comes, everything else also gets swept away with it. So, yesterday also they They fell but their peak was formed four months ago, so people think that the day Nifty forms a top or the day when suddenly 2000 shares crash in the market simultaneously, then people think that recession has come, this recession has been going on for four months, whether you call it recession or correction or reaction, whatever you call it, it has been going on in different pockets for three-four months, yesterday it definitely came to my mind that in some of my stocks, I feel that maybe the time has come to buy them, so it came to my mind but I do not want to be that adventurous because if I buy then I cannot sell them at 5 or 10, then I buy for 10 years, for 5 years, 10 years, so it came to my mind that brother, I felt that I should increase my stake in airlines, you know, in airline stocks, it came to my mind, I have not done anything but let's see for a day or two, five days, seven days, tell us Mr.
Kedia, so airlines are hardly representation but airlines and airports and Not just related spaces or airlines, I feel that in all the tourism stocks, a new theme is emerging in India. All other themes are going to be seen in India, but this theme has been a bit neglected, so whether you take airports or airlines or whatever supports them, be it hotels or resorts or whatever, I feel that this sector has been neglected for years and decades, so now the way people have become aware about visiting India and travel in India or whatever is happening, it seems that this should be corrected, but yes, some of my investments are in resorts and some in airlines, my investment is not in airports.
An update, what about PSU stocks, you are seeing a bit of a recovery today, Kedia ji, today their condition seems to be a bit better compared to at least yesterday, and you know what happened was that the valuation has increased, government companies are now more It has become expensive, today we are seeing recovery, you think long term this is one space, I am not talking about banks, I am talking about overall PSU defense extra that you would bet on, see, I think the future of PSUs will grow for the next 10 years, this is the whole India story, without taking PSU stocks, there is a 30 trillion dollar economy, Amrit Kaal or this Kaal or that Kaal and or 10 trillion economy this cannot happen, so and within all of them, within all of them, the issue of corporate governance, as it seemed earlier, is changing, I think that all of them are going to do good, the only problem was that this froth, that suddenly euphoria happens in the market, I get scared, so they say in the picture that I am not scared of slaps, sir, I get scared of love, so the love that they were showing, I got a little scared of this statement, I think that all of them are going to do good, see, it is in your mind that you have a valuation Tamanna ji, you buy a purse, it is available for Rs 5000, but you buy wallets, it is available for lakhs, it depends on what value you give to the thing.
I think their future is good and I also feel that this correction that has come in the market is an indicator of the next big boom and it will be a little easier for it to see a bigger boom in the future. So this is what I think. Lastly, Mr. Kedia, you said that aviation looks good to you because it is the tourism sector.
Railways is also on that list because if you are buying airline stocks, Railways have a little more exposure then in that case and if yes to stocks, if not, but to stocks that you like beyond aviation, then you already told us no, first of all, Railway stock could be better, could be a good investment.
I am not invested in any Railway stock and I personally invested so far. I've invested in Indigo, it's in the public domain. Everybody note, I invested in Indigo and I don't know it is going to rise or fall. I don't know, I am not recommending what I have done for the last few months. I am discussing some kind of stocks like railways could also be a better bet, but I am not following them.
I am from InterGlobe, but you like it in your portfolio. I am not of course recommending anything else from InterGlobe, but I am not in your portfolio. I am not in terms of recommending anything else. I am not in tourism, as I said tourism could be a big theme for this decade. So I have some stocks like Mahindra Holidays, I am holding, but I am holding for the last five years and InterGlobe, and I am but I am going to make my trip, so it is not listed here in India.
So I think these two stocks are in your list, but what are the ones that you will buy when it stabilizes a bit. I am sure you have drawn up a stock. Mental list of three or four of them, then tell me the choice, what is there in that list, I do n't have much money to buy because I always say, ha ha, if you give me something then I will decide something, that means I will buy the leftover back, I will also fund you, sir, don't go beyond this thought, look at my infrastructure story, without infrastructure, perhaps in the interview I did with you earlier, Tamanna ji, I had said that without infrastructure you cannot imagine India, India can grow, I think infrastructure stocks have a 10 year boom, so you should look at those which have fallen to 25, 30, 35, above, go ahead with them, understanding that it is possible that it may fall to 20, if it does not fall, then it is a good thing, one should invest in them, before and wrap up, thank you Vijay Keya ji, any poem, any song for our investors, and if anyone does not understand then why should it keep growing, it should fall, why should people spend money on 90 I lost it when I thought about it carefully and understood that whatever I took, I sat down, that is what I earned, people could not sit on 90, this is just a long term game, so there is nothing else here, choose good shares and invest big in them, whatever you want to invest, invest it reasonably in a ratio and do it for the long term, apart from this there is no other mantra here, that is the only means of buying, that is the mantra, that is the key mantra, thank you so much Mr. Keya, I love pleasure and have fun speaking with you
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