저자: Sam/출연:BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼이 2020년 말 기준 패니메이(FNMA)·프레디맥(FMCC)을 '특수 상황' 투자 종목으로 꼽았고, 유튜버도 관심을 보이며 추적 관찰하겠다는 입장이다. [애크먼의 핵심 주장] 패니메이·프레디맥은 2008 금융위기 후 정부 구제(conservatorship) 상태이며, 정부 지분 회수·재자본화 후 공개시장 복귀 시 주가가 크게 오를 수 있다고 봤다. [근거 수치] 주가 약 2.5달러 수준에서 10달러 이상 가능성을 언급했다. 유튜버 해석 기준 FNMA는 약 1.84→약 2.7달러 부근, FMCC는 약 1.74→약 2.71달러 부근이었다. [자본 요건과 시점] 재무부 자본 규칙상 필요 자본은 약 2800억 달러 수준이며 현재 약 300억 달러가 쌓여 있다고 언급했다. [법적 변수] 2020년 12월 9일 연방대법원에서 정부의 두 회사 수용(appropriation)이 합법인지 심리가 예정되어 있었다. 보수화된 대법원이 수용에 부정적이라 호재로 봤다. [정책 변수] 트럼프 행정부 마지막 두 달 내 므누친 재무장관의 마무리 조치 기대, 또는 바이든 행정부 하에서도 공개시장 복귀 경로는 이어질 것이라는 견해. [애널리스트 전망] FNMA 목표가 저가 약 3달러, 고가 약 7.75달러, 평균 약 상승여력 50% 안팎. FMCC 중간 목표가 약 4달러, 고가 약 7달러(상승여력 약 46%). [재무 상황] 순이익은 우선주 배당 등 조정 후 분기별 변동이 크며, 과거 정부에 약 3000억 달러를 배당으로 상환했다. 향후 배당 재개 가능성도 거론되었다. [리스크] 정부 정책·법원 판결 의존도가 높고 OTC 거래 종목이며 사업 구조가 복잡해 이해가 어렵다는 점을 유튜버도 지적했다. 유튜버는 현재 매수하지 않았고 관망 중이다. [유튜버 결론] 직접 매수는 하지 않았고, 대법원 심리 진행과 정책 흐름을 지켜보며 추적하겠다는 입장.
다듬은 글
how's it going everyone it's sam i want to talk to you today about two companies kind of that are very tightly related pretty much the same company that bill ackman thinks could go from about 2.70 and pretty much 6x from where it is now so it could go between 10 and 15 a share pretty soon so he was asked which of his companies is his favorite one and this he puts in a little bit higher risk category but it is a really interesting company it's one they are they both are probably companies that you've heard of but have not looked into for investing and i'll play the video first of all him talking about the company and this this video is from interactive investor on youtube definitely check him out if you haven't done that already he seems like he's a really smart guy he he has interviewed a lot of smart people so if you want to check out that video originally you can check it out but i'll play it here in a second and then i'm just going to run through where the stock is some analyze expectations what's happening with their revenue and their net income because it's kind of impressive and then talk to you about what's going to go on going forward and what i'm doing so if you guys like this please leave a thumbs up i really appreciate it also please hit subscribe if you haven't already hit subscribe i really appreciate that and this is the last day if you're seeing this monday to get four free stocks through weeble definitely check out the link down below if you deposit a hundred dollars you get four free stocks and there's a link down to patreon where you can hear about stocks right when i buy them or sell them so definitely check that out too we're over over a thousand investors on that right now so definitely check that out so i'll roll the video for you right here hello today i have with me bill again one of the world's best known investors and the man behind hedge fund pershing square holdings hello bill thanks for joining me thanks for having me i mean you've uh already said that you know you own 10 companies that you you want you want to invest in businesses that you're going to own for you know a number of years into the future so um but my question is amongst those 10 is there a favorite stock for 2021 is there one that you think well i really think this one will do better than the rest uh in 2021 and also or is there a a particular sector that you think investors should be looking at um for the next 12 months so you know we like all of our companies which is why we own them obviously we didn't like them and didn't think they offered attractive risk rewards this level we would sell them there's one i think that's a really interesting special situation uh it meets all the same criteria for business quality but it's a much smaller investment in the portfolio and i think it's worth it's worth a look so fannie mae and freddie mac are pretty well-known companies globally and they're also well known for blowing up in the financial crisis fannie and freddie their business is basically buying up mortgages from banks kind of uh what are called conforming mortgages that meet certain standards or mortgages on middle-class people's homes and they you know chop those mortgages they put them into uh into uh chop them up into little pieces in effect by the issue by issuing securities backed by them and they guarantee those securities so it's a it's a insurer if you will a very very low risk assets and it's how the using the u.s housing finance system works we have a 30-year prepayable fixed rate mortgage because fannie mae and freddie mac beginning as early as the 1930s we were in that business they blew up during the financial crisis because they were inadequately capitalized and they started buying subprime and other you know securities and it was adequate oversight um we seven years ago uh bought into fannie and freddie on the belief you know the government ended up taking them over putting them into what was called conservative ship and then injecting a large amount of capital and people believe that fannie and freddie would never be able to pay back the government and they were in effect uh insolvent the reality is they recovered very very quickly from the financial crisis and they repaid the government with the 10 interest and more over time but political for political reasons the obama administration stepped in and said well uh even though you paid us back we're gonna we're gonna consider our obligation not paid back at all and so the stocks languished in the kind of low two dollar share range um president trump uh and president and uh the secretary of uh treasury steve mnuchin basically said look this is not a terrible situation these entities need to go back they need to be recapitalized you need to go back to the public markets and he began a series of steps early in the trump administration and almost all those steps have been taken the most recent step was the issuance of a capital rule which which says that these entities are going to have to hold something like 280 billion of capital and today they have you know called 30 billion capital um on december 9th uh the supreme court is hearing a case as to whether the government's appropriation of these companies was legal so that's a really interesting you'll get some interesting data how the supreme court feels about it it's a more conservative court now because of recent appointments conservative courts don't like expropriation of private companies so there's a big opportunity there and then it's the last two months of the of the trump administration uh mnuchin uh we think uh will want to finish the job uh if either of those two outcomes happens in a favorable way this what is today a 2.50 stock could be a 10 in a very very short order and even biden if they are if neither of those two things happens supreme court does not rule in favor and uh mnuchin is too distracted by other things in the trump white house to do anything we still think that the next administration will will continue on the path of bringing these companies back to the public markets so it's sort of an interesting special situation with a very attractiveness reward trading you know maybe something slightly above our cost seven years ago so it's an investment that has not panned out yet and as i say we're super long term but could you know it's the only thing in the portfolio that could be up four five six x in the next 12 months so that's the more exciting uh part of the portfolio um actually the the head of the um i think i've heard he passed away recently um when i described that situation to the head of the welcome trust uh the cio he said oh is that the sex and violence part of the portfolio i said well it's an interesting way to describe it well it's fascinating stuff bill and we'll uh we'll watch that one closely um bill ackman pershing square holdings thanks very much for joining me today thank you so much appreciate it so just taking a look at both of these companies here they weren't listed exactly uh they're they're ticker symbols so both of these are on the otc markets you're you're gonna have to search around for an app that will actually allow you to trade these for example i use fidelity for otc stocks but the first one is fmcc and that's freddie mac that company has gone up from 1.74 to about 2.71 cents over the last month the other one is fannie mae it's fnma and this has gone from 1.84 and it's gone up about 50 percent now if you take a look at both of these side by side it's really interesting how they are the exact same shape so i don't know exactly why this is the case they are traded under two different ticker symbols but every single day is the exact same they're just at different price points which is interesting but first of all let's take a look at fnma so they have an analyst expectation on the low side is about three dollars on the high side it's about 7.75 so this represents a pretty big boost from where it is now on the high side now they say that the average represents about seven point five three percent increase and again this is fnma which is fannie mae the other company is freddie mac and that one is representing an upside of about 46 percent so they have a median target of four dollars and a high estimate of seven that's about forty six percent upside now looking at both of their companies just on seeking alpha you might be a little bit confused so this is fnma again i'll tell you what i'm going to do with this in a second but this is a pretty small company overall and they have net income of about 11.6 billion dollars now again just looking at fnma i saw a couple different numbers so this says 3.19 billion on here i believe it said 16 billion but either way that net income is crazy right now i mean they have really high revenue first of all it's about 22.6 billion dollars over the trailing 12 months and they have about half of that in that income the thing is they have a large amount of preferred dividends and other adjustments almost ex like exactly what they actually made in net income you can see that pretty much every quarter and it's weird because it fluctuates right then you go over to freddie mac and they have something very similar it's it's the same kind of weird up and down with their net income and then when you look at net income afterwards what's actually paid out to shareholders a lot of the time it's negative or it's right around zero or you know it's kind of interesting but the reason for this is what they talked about in the video these companies have been paying back the us government for their bailout for a long time in 2008 they had a 190 billion dollar government bailout and since then they've sent back over 300 billion dollars in the form of dividends to the us treasury the u.s treasury is making bank on this now they are talking about possibly bringing back a dividend so if they're able to get out from under this they are considering paying a dividend they do have a very high net income when you consider uh just 12 billion dollars or even 7 billion dollars just looking at what the dividend could pay it's hard to tell exactly but it would be very significant it would be a very high dividend payer or they would just have a lower payout ratio but either way i think it has a lot of potential upside now they are expecting at least in this article that they will see some newly issued shares just to move the process along to be able to raise some capital they are expecting some some different kinds of stocks they have issued these types of preferred stocks in the past with high dividend yields so this is something to keep on your radar now i am not buying these right now but again like they said in the video december 9 they started talking with the supreme court on what's happening uh whether they're going to be able to get out from under this or whether they're going to go private or stay public or anything like that i mean there's a lot going on with these companies and i'll be honest part of the reason i'm not investing in these is because i don't fully understand the business i mean when you get into these mortgage loan companies it gets kind of confusing put this one on your radar i'm going to be keeping this in the back of my mind and checking up on the supreme court proceedings and seeing where this goes because it does have a lot of potential bill ackman says that he thinks it has a lot of potential it is interesting it would be a high dividend payer i believe if they're able to not have to pay you know seven to 12 billion dollars worth of of their net income over to the government so keep this one on your radar let me know what you're doing with it i appreciate it again if you want to see some other stocks that i've been looking at you can check out this video from earlier i did a video on spak stocks that are around 10 a share so definitely check it out they kind of limit your downside i'll put on the end screen also check out weeble and patreon down below if you want and hit the like button i really appreciate that we are growing to 50 000 subscribers so if you don't mind hitting that subscribe button really appreciate that too i know i'm asking a lot but it is the holidays so if you feel like giving you can definitely give by hanging the like button or the subscribe button thank you guys and here's the video on those spacks you
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