저자: CharlieMunger,PeterLynch,RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 폭락 시 장기 보유가 수익의 핵심이라는 결론을 세 투자자(찰리 멍거, 피터 린치, 레이 달리오)의 발언을 엮어 전달하는 교육 영상. 멍거: 연 50% 하락을 세 번 겪어도 평정심을 유지해야 하며, 장기 주주라면 주가 큰 하락은 자연스러운 과정이라고 주장. 버크셔 해서웨이 주가도 세 차례 50% 하락을 경험. 린치: 시장은 하락한다는 사실을 공부해야 하며, 93년간 10% 이상 조정은 약 2년에 한 번, 25% 이상 약세장은 약 6년에 한 번 발생한다고 설명. 기업을 이해하고 있다면 하락은 매수 기회. 린치는 Kaiser Industries 사례를 들어, 26달러에서 3달러까지 떨어졌지만 부채가 없고 자회사 가치가 높아 주당 약 50달러에 청산 배분되었다는 경험을 소개. 자산을 이해하지 못한 채 주가만 보고 사는 것의 위험을 강조. 달리오: 시장은 군중을 반영하므로 군중의 본능과 반대로 행동해야 한다는 역발상 투자 원칙 제시. 다만 감정적으로 어렵고 전문 자원이 필요하다며 시장 타이밍 게임을 경계. 결론: (1) 이해할 수 있는 기업에 투자하거나 지수 ETF를 보유, (2) 시장 폭락 시 매수, (3) 5~10년 장기 시계 유지.
다듬은 글
hello everyone another video to show you guys how to make real consistent return in the stock market even during the market crashes the key point to take away from this video is that your best returns are realized when you hold on to your stocks during the ups and downs of Market volatility and the key is to hold them long term so let's hear from the best of the best investors beginning with Charlie Munger the American self-made billionaire and the right-hand man of Warren Buffett Rick you can argue if you're not willing to react with Equanimity to a market price decline of 50 percent two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get I am continuously invested in American Equity but I've had my Berkshire stock declined by 50 percent three times and I don't it doesn't bother me that much but we heard that is just a natural consequence of adult life properly lived so if you have my attitude it doesn't really matter how worried are you by the declines in the share price of Berkshire Hathaway the difficulties this is the third time that Warren and I have seen our Holdings in Berkshire go down top take to bottom tick by 50 percent I think it's in the nature of long-term shareholding with the normal vicissitudes and in worldly outcomes and in markets that the long-term holder has is quoted value of his stock go down and then by say 50 percent second up is Peter Lynch the famed portfolio manager of fidelity Magellan fund between 1977 to 1990.
it will be wise to listen to him since he averaged more than 29 return during those years and made him an investment icon but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock I got from 26 to 16 and then it got into 10. what would you do when it went to nine what would you do when to eat what would you do when it went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now if you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the market said 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market Falls 10 percent we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and uh so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market Falls 10 percent of those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear Market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the Market's gonna have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need to know the Market's gonna go down sometime if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen it would be very people tell you about it after fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and uh so you can take advantage of the volatility Market if you understand what you own is a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much you know how much further going to go down I remember when Polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record whatever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's got 135 to 100 it's not 95 what a buy within a year it was 18.
and this is coming with no debt I mean this is coming it was just so overpriced it went down uh I did the same thing in my uh I think my first or second year Fidelity Kaiser Industries had gone from 26 this year to 16. I said how much lower can it go it's 16. so I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever on the New York on the American Stock Exchange of Kaiser Industries at 14.
I said you know it's about 26 to 16. how much longer can it go well at 10 I called my mother and said mom you're going to uh look at this Kaiser Industries I mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10. well I went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and uh I unfortunate this happened rapidly I would probably be still cattying or working at the Stop and Shop but it happened fast I was able to just it was compressed that uh and at three I figured out you know there's something very wrong here because Kaiser Industries owns 40 of Kaiser steel they own 40 of Kaiser Aluminum they own 32 percent of kinds of cement you know Kaiser broadcast they know in Kaiser Santa gravel Kaiser Engineers they own Jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now I learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt It's Tricky some people can approach that it's a real it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million at that point it was equal to buying one Boeing 747 I said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million I was a little premature at 16 but uh I said everything's fine and eventually this will work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out shares and kind of cement they pass their chairs and Kaz aluminum they passed out their public shares in Kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you got about fifty dollars a share last we have Ray dalio the American billionaire who made his fortune with his hedge fund Bridgewater Associates which manages over 150 billion dollars in fact Bridgewater Associates even had positive returns during the 2008 crisis he is considered to be one of the more Innovative investors of the financial markets the game um it has to be the opposite of what your instincts in the crowd says because the market reflects the crowd so you want to buy when no one wants to buy and you want to sell when no one wants to sell right so and that's emotionally difficult um and probably you're not going to play that game well because it takes a lot of resources to play the good I'm we spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year to try to play that game well and it's a tough game to play well so I would caution you about the market time in game but I would say that if you're going to do it do it in the ways that are uncomfortable because they're opposite your instincts so in conclusion the best way to make money and I mean consistent profits is number one to buy companies that you understand well or better yet buy an ETF that tracks an index unless you have the analytical skills of these investors I think for most of us it's better to stay with an index that covers many stocks and number two is to buy when the market is falling I don't like Market crashes but I think that is when you make the most money and get rich and number three is to have a long-term Horizon of five to ten years have you get a chance to buy it during a market crash your risk is actually less if you're able to hold it long term because as history shows the markets will swing both on the upside and the downside to a stream you just have to sit tight and wait for the upswing well I hope you enjoyed this video and please smash the like button comment and subscribe to support my channel until next time happy investing
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