저자: PeterLynch방식성장주분석채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 페이팔(PYPL)은 장기 가치 대비 현재가가 저평가되어 있어 10년 내 큰 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 기술적 분석은 여전히 하락 추세(베어 모드)이며 반등 신호가 아직 없다고 진단. 펀더멘털 관점: 현재 주가는 약 61~62달러 수준이며, 올해 주당순이익 기준 12배 PE 수준으로 평가됨. 이익 성장률은 15~19% 가정, 부채는 적고 순현금 구조. 이익 전망 기반 밸류에이션: 올해 밸류 범위 41~177달러, 내년 48~200달러, 5년·10년 후 이익 확장 가정으로 10년 후 약 170달러 잠재 가치 제시. 페그 비율은 1 미만, 이익수익률 약 8%로 국채 금리 상회. 진입 전략: 40~45달러 부근 분할 매수 시 큰 수익(20배) 가능성을 언급하며 가격 하락 시 추가 매수 관점 제시. 리스크: 경기침체에 따른 금융 실적 악화, 소상공인 대출 연체율 상승(약 2~3%에서 8%로 상승), CBDC 및 애플페이 등 경쟁 위협, 기업 정치 이슈 언급. 진행자는 주가 추가 하락 가능성도 인정하며, 자신이 만든 밸류에이션 스프레드시트를 공유하겠다고 함.
다듬은 글
PayPal stock could this thing be a 15 bagger or a 20 bagger could this thing be 900 stocks sometime in the future my math says possibly and the way you do it is you just do some Peter Lynch math you do some Warren Buffett future discounting of intrinsic value and you might get the same information that I'm getting so I I have a decade out here and if it's really valued richly it might be at 900 stock in a decade it might be a 500 stock in a decade in five years if you don't if you don't want to think about a decade you might think about 2028 and how PayPal could beat four hundred dollars or back to its old high of 300 fundamentally not not saying technical analysis is saying that at all because it isn't let me show you if we look at technical analysis it's saying we're in a bear Mode still if we look at technical analysis it's saying it could Co it could go lower so we are not showing any bullish signs in technical analysis not even these green candles that we're seeing right now are bullish because they have to take out a high if you don't take out a high that's not bullish at all but fundamentally once whatever is happening which is probably some sort of recession once whatever is done hitting the financials which PayPal is a financial PayPal does have Financial Services it does have Merchant loans to small businesses and it also has Braintree which is like like a platform a payment platform once we go through that then if we look at let's go look at a Seeking Alpha and look at the analysts who are working at on this stock trying to predict the future that's what their job is they're saying that the numbers do make sense the PE for PayPal forward PE as in once this year is done if it reaches these earnings 494 that's a 12 p e that's a that's a hard thing to find a 12 p e for a company that is growing its earnings between 19 and 15 percent that's hard to get and it doesn't have a lot of debt they have almost 11 billion in cash and a little more than 11 billion in debt so the Enterprise Value matches the market cap that's a good sign and then if you look at PayPal's earnings and you look at what they're expecting hypothetically could happen with real hard data as long as we don't go into a deep recession depression either the numbers they're expecting in 10 years the earnings will be five times larger and the p e potentially in a decade right now is 2.8 okay so what do you do with all that and how how does all that information lead to the crazy talk that I'm talking about well if you look at historically at companies they will trade at different multiple so let's jump over to this spreadsheet they will trade at different multiples they might trade at a super cheap base value like 8.5 p e with zero growth and maybe factoring potential debt it might trade at a historical PE of 15 15 to 20 we're seeing a lot of 2017 on the S P but 15 is a historical average p e for the S P 500 and larger cap companies if if you factor in growth you might you might skip the 15 p e and use a multiple of growth so in this case I'm using 18 so instead of 15 you would use a more enthusiastic 18 so then you would use a higher multiple and in extreme cases when a company is growing very very quickly and there's a lot of investor excitement you would use two times the growth rate so two times the growth rate is 18 times two and we would call that a peg two two times the growth rate Peter Lynch's formula Benjamin Graham also speaks about this but if we spit those formulas we put those in in here we put in earnings expectations for this year and next year it'll give us four valuations for every year and if we look I already put the price here it's around 61 to 62.
it was 59 at one point and it'll give us some more information if you see the price too low you can do some growth math if you see it really high you can expect to do some more math as well but look at the range of trading it can trade anywhere between forty one dollars and 177 for this year you can trade anywhere between forty eight dollars and 200 next year and then we grow out the earnings and it gives me a potential valuation in five years and the potential valuation in 10 years that's how I get these numbers that I'm getting if those numbers pan out which they don't always do those earnings it's like a living document it moves but this is the best that I have to predict the future I can't predict the future but but I can plot it I can plot what analysts expect okay so I actually I am now interested last time I made a video I think it was like 70 something dollars but now now it's down to 61 and let's say it even goes to to 40 okay it starts to get really ridiculous unless something horrible is happening which does happen but they're already pricing that in they're already chopping at PayPal at an extreme amount do I think it can't go lower no I I've seen some crazy stuff but when you look at PayPal compared to the market they are really smacking it so I have also a tangible value they've got tangible value of seven so worst case we know there's at least seven dollars worth of value in the stock and they don't have an excess amount of debt but I am very interested if I have a another spreadsheet where I track about 40 45 companies and then I rank them by PEG ratio that's one of the metrics by earnings yield look at the forward earnings yield of PayPal it's earning eight percent it's beating treasuries just like Warren Buffett likes I'm sure he wouldn't invest in PayPal because it doesn't have a big enough moat but this is what PayPal earns right now it's June we're almost they've almost learned about half of that PEG ratio below one growth rate 18 a very respectable healthy growth rate and potentially the few future price I calculate potentially this one says a hundred and seventy dollars in 10 years potentially 61 right now that would be a 14 bagger right now and then here I just track the potential entry prices if it does get to 43 that would be a 20 bagger so isn't that wild I think I will give away this other spreadsheet that I I have I will put a link in the bottom and if you want to put in your own analysis you're welcome to do so if here here's an example if we put in 10 000 in five years I could be 66k in 10 years 152 if it goes to 40 let's say forty four dollars and then we and then we put in the 10K which turns into 100 Grand or 92 000 in five years potentially and two hundred and eleven thousand that's a 20 bag of return in 10 years so that's why I love the spreadsheets let me know let me know if you agree or disagree with what's happening in PayPal positive free free cash flow let me know if you have a decent different thoughts if you disagree if you completely hate PayPal from what I heard looking at the Articles fed now the cbdc type stuff is a competitor to PayPal also Apple pay is a threat to PayPal that's why people are scared also the merchant loans that they're making the default rate has gone from like low two to three to eight so far it is am I missing anything is there anything I'm missing I know they're they're also woke they uh they didn't they uh stop the truckers from from using their paypals something like that let me know in the comments if I'm missing something or you know do you agree do you disagree let's let's discuss it talk to you soon cheers
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