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today the flomc raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points my colleagues and I are strongly committed to Bringing inflation back down to our two percent goal these were the birds of Sharon Powell at the latest fat meeting another interest rate hike of 0.75 do you remember the words from a year ago inflation is just transitory here is Sharon Powell that inflation could be could actually be quite low our our expectation is that these uh these high inflation readings that we're seeing now will start to Abate and now we hear a different story 75 basis points up on interest rates everybody who listen closely already a year ago to Sharon Powell he was always very very clear when inflation Rises to worry some areas he will do what is necessary to bring inflation down here are the clips of Jerome Powell's speech a year ago where he addressed how he will handle inflation dismiss the chance that it can work out that that this goes on longer than expected and the risk would be that over time it does begin to affect inflation expectations and if we see inflation expectations and inflation or or inflation moving up in a way that is really materially above what we what we would see as consistent with our goals and persistently so we wouldn't hesitate to use our tools to address that that's it price stability is half of our mandate and and we would certainly do that we do not expect that though that is not our base case and and and in that we're joined by many other forecasters but the latest speech from about a week ago if we don't get inflation uh under control because we don't tighten enough now we're in a situation where inflation will become entrenched we have both the tools that we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families it is very premature to be thinking about pausing so people when they hear lags they think about about a positive we still have some ways to go and incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected we have some ground left to cover here and uh and and cover it we will the pesticides the audience podcast discussed the reaction of the fat to the inflation and came up with some serious comments and questions this is just I think an economy-wide Slowdown what is the Fed going to have to do or can they stop this consumer and this growth it's very strange right the big question still is is inflation transitory will it be over pretty soon or is this a phase that despite the interest rate tax is expected to last much much longer here is the all-in podcast again Powell Powell said he'd rather over correct and break things because he has a toolbox to fix the broken bones but he doesn't have a toolbox to fix if they under correct and they have rampant inflation I mean not more explicit you can't get Jason so he's going to take rates until demand is destroyed and enough demand is destroyed such that inflation is tamed but that has huge implications to all of us because we all have to do our job trying to build a company trying to raise money trying to invest money it's just getting much much much harder than I even thought so like you know for me I'm like wow I thought that we could get through the worst of this by mid-23 but now you have to plan for the worst which means okay now I'm thinking that man rates could be higher for much longer which means you know we could be in this market until early 25 and you may say hey that's way too conservative yeah but you have to plan for conservatism in this point so how do I invest money right now honestly I'm like hmm I should just put it more into T bills isn't that crazy if a company's like hmoth can have another 10 15 20 million bucks I'm like wow I mean I don't think that that gets you anywhere and oh by the way that 10 or 20 million dollars I can generate four percent so finally when we have the expectation that the next two years will be terrible in terms of inflation recession or even a depression how should startups and households weather the storm and handle the situation here are also some sound comments and recommendations from the or in podcasts investors listen it's it's survival of the quickest those who are most willing to adapt the most quickly are going to survive and the ones that are stubborn and refuse to accept the new regime the market regime are gonna die we showed that chart remember that chart from Sequoia months ago on this podcast remember that where it basically showed what happens if you're a company that doesn't cut burn until the very end then you're still going to run out of money and die but if you make the cut right away quickly you could you have enough Runway to weather the storm and I think that what we've seen is as you know at my firm craft yeah this is exactly it yeah we showed This months ago we've been begging our Founders to embrace this we did a portfolio a review with our entire um set of founders of our portfolio companies we did one in February when we felt the markets were changing and we did another one in May and we showed the slide and this is the most important thing for Founders to internalize is you have to make the changes quickly you know one way for them to think about it is let's say you're a unicorn company okay and you raised at the peak let's say second half of 2021 you raise 100 million dollars at a billion dollar valuation and let's say you've got 50 million left in the bank right so you've burned 50 million a lot of these Founders are thinking that 50 million they've got left is only five percent dilution but that's what it was historically if you were to raise a new round today you might only be valued at 250.
so that 50 million you have left is actually 20 dilution and that's if you could even raise which might be very very hard the most important thing Founders can do is forget about the historical terms on which you raise that money forget about how much money you were burning in the past just think about how much money you have in the bank today so to sum things up three things need to be done number one increase your revenues to better the storm solid cash inflows are always the best solution for everything the second part is cut your expenses throw everything that you don't need in the coming two years out of the window and the final third thing is stretch out your capitals your cash that you have as long as possible make your cash last to survive the coming two to three years things will definitely get better afterwards and I believe those companies Who start right now with bootstrapping and those companies who are successful in increasing revenues cutting expenses and stretching their capital the cash rich will be extremely successful once the storm is over I hope you enjoyed these episodes if you liked it make sure that you subscribe to the channel to get more videos when I publish them
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