원문 보기
if you've been wondering how quickly stocks might return to their most recent Peak then Ray dalio has a message for you slow down stocks still have further to fall as the U.S economy slides into a recession in 2023 or 2024. here's how this might all play out what's their view then Ray dalio who runs the world's biggest hedge fund says stocks tend to fall in two stages when interest rates rise and the first stage may not be done playing out just yet stage one valuations drop the more interest rates rise the more attractive cash becomes relative to risky assets like stocks think about it with so many unknowns on the horizon doesn't earning a virtually risk free 3.5 return on your cash sound pretty tempting you'd hold stocks only if you expected them to deliver returns that more than compensate you for their higher risks and for the higher cost of opportunity of holding cash put differently you'd only hold them if they trade at a discount meaning that their valuations fall to a level that makes them attractive again that's exactly what's been happening with a fall in stock valuations responsible for most of the price correction so far but here's the thing while stocks are less expensive than they were a few months ago they're nowhere near bargain levels and the higher interest rates rise the more valuations and stock prices will have to fall to keep them competitive relative to cash with the FED still hiking rates aggressively stage one is probably still playing out and a further dip in stock valuations is a very real risk stage 2 earnings weaken while the valuation Dynamic I explained above has been the main driver of Stock's recent returns another one might play an even bigger role in the future a Slowdown in earnings growth research from Bridgewater shows that this may be the make or break factor in whether stocks experience just a small correction or something worse if the economy and earnings drop only modestly over the next few months then stocks probably won't fall much further but if earnings take a big hit a 2008 style catastrophic crash becomes a distinct possibility right now investors are confidently betting on a modest drop seeing the economy is down but not out they're optimistic that companies will be able to maintain their High margins and earnings Bridgewater warns that may be misguided that's because it takes time A few quarters typically for the effects of higher interest rates to feed through the economy and impact companies earnings put simply Rising rates generally Pummel earnings pretty hard and the higher interest rates the bigger the punch but it doesn't happen immediately how much lower can stocks go based on this analysis the outlook for stocks now depends on two things how high interest rates go and how companies profits cope with those higher rates right now neither is looking particularly positive with inflation still high the FED has just approved its third straight jumbo interest rate hike and says more are on the way as I explained earlier that's a negative for stock valuations meanwhile leading indicators of economic activity continue to show signs of weakness suggesting that companies profits might be about to crumble that'd be rough for stocks which have historically experienced their sharpest losses when rates were rising and earnings falling as for the master hedge funder himself dalio estimated that interest rates reaching 4.5 percent would likely be enough to send stocks another 30 percent lower given how optimistic investors are about future earnings I'd argue he's probably right so what's the opportunity if the dalio is right then there will no place to hide in the market so you may consider allocating part of your portfolio to these proshare's short 20-plus year treasury which delivers the returns of the inverse of the daily performance of the U.S treasury 20-plus years Bond index higher interest rate expectations would be expected to lead to this ETF to go up higher interest rate means lower Bond return
Comments 0