Fisher Investments’ Ken Fisher Reviews the Implications of Returning to a Pre-pandemic Economy

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결론: 팬데믹 이전과 같은 2~4% 성장·저실업·2% 물가의 세계가 생각보다 가까우며, 공포를 줄이고 향후 몇 년간 더 나은 경제를 기대해야 한다는 주장. 경제 상황 평가: 2018~19년 경제는 양호했고, 현재 경제가 그 세계로 돌아가는지에 대한 논쟁이 있다고 설명. 2022년 이후 공포 요인: 팬데믹, 인플레이션, 약세장, 우크라이나 전쟁, 연준 등 다양한 우려가 사람들을 겁먹게 했다고 진단. 현재 시장과 경기: 2022년 10월 시작된 강세장이 약 1년 지속됐으나 사람들은 이를 진짜인지 의문시하며, 저성장·정체 우려가 여전하다고 언급. 긴축의 장기 영향에 대한 우려도 존재. 물가와 금리 전망: 인플레이션이 3% 수준으로 하락해 2%로 가는 과정이며, 금리는 2018~19년보다 높은 수준이라고 설명. 중앙은행 평가: 연준이 금리를 당장 인상하지 않겠지만 높은 금리를 더 오래 유지할 것이라 밝힌 데 대해, 중앙은행은 미래 행동을 알지 못하며 과거에도 말과 행동이 달랐다고 비판. 결론적 메시지: 현재 세계는 완벽하지 않지만 충분히 괜찮으며, 수많은 공포성 예측은 실현되지 않을 가능성이 크므로 향후 몇 년간 더 편안해질 것이라 전망. 종목·자산 언급: 대상 목록의 개별 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 방향 언급 없음.

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01. So lately we've had a phrase popping up uh that is true and important in one way and unimportant in another which is that we're returning to prepandemic numbers in our economy in this way that way and the other way and what what does that mean what's the importance of it uh what's its significance so you you all remember that before the pandemic in 2018 and 19 the economy was humming along pretty nicely uh unemployment was pretty low as it is now uh GDP growth was pretty nice uh and we had a pretty nice world that most people in terms of the economy were not complaining about in any significant way the pandemic of course scared the babers out of everyone the post pandemic bull market people worried if it was real or if it was some artificial thing created by government this that or the other then the inflation that came uh with 2022 and the bare Market associated with that time period and all the other things that people were afraid of in 2022 like the Ukraine war and the Federal Reserve and you go on and on and on all that further scared the babers out of people so that people have gotten to the point where as the bull market that began last October of 2022 having now run on for almost a year uh pretty much almost fully a year is seen as is it real is the economy what good enough don't we have a stagnant tbid low growth no growth economy isn't the long-term effects of what the central bank's done going to make that even worse or are we now returning to what that 201819 world looked like before the pandemic and which is it and what what's important there now I'm going to say these things are always debatable different people are going to disagree if you turn on the idiot box you're going to hear a very large number of opinions on a topic like that and now as I speak you've got more commonly negative opinions than not but let me go a different direction a world of 2 3 4% GDP growth low unemployment and a return to 2% inflation isn't actually that far away from where we are right now it's not where we are right now but it's not that far away and yet that is the world that we had in 201819 so in some ways whether we are or are not returning to that prepandemic economy and World in terms of Notions like Consumer Debt in terms of Notions like uh deficits in terms of Notions like GDP growth unemployment inflation Etc well we're not all the way there and of course by definition interest rates are much higher uh at the level of what the Federal Reserve and uh the government are doing than were the case then but in a world of two three 4% growth low unemployment inflation falling down to around 3% on its way to 2% it's not that bad a world is it perfect no but it's not that bad and it's good enough that we should embrace that and get over our fears so much because we're still seeing fears at every corner uh as I speak now late in September the central bank has just said well we're not raising rates but we're going to keep them higher longer than people thought about before and I'd say to you as I've said so many times in the past about central banks they have no idea what they're going to do in the future maybe they'll do that maybe they'll do something else I mean there's just a long history of them saying this and then later doing that and I don't think they're lying to anybody I just don't think they know what they're going to do 3 four five months from now and and they'll do whatever they do based on what happens between now and then and what I'm going to say is going back to what I said before after a long period of 2020 2021 2022 where we've had the babers scared out of us we don't have a whole lot of babers left except we keep looking for them and my view is we're going to see that better economy ahead it is going to look a lot like the preand pmic world and in that people are going to come to become more comfortable in the next couple of years than they expect they'll be and you should look forward to that and expect that rather than all the terrible things you're going to hear a lot of people tell you are immediately around the corner because when so many people are looking for them they probably don't appear thank you