저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 초보 투자자에게 중요한 것은 지능이 아니라 기질(태도)이며, 단순하고 수동적인 장기 투자와 좋은 투자 서적 학습이 핵심이라는 조언. 투자 성공의 본질: 똑똑하다고 성공하는 것이 아니며, 시장은 높은 학력과 지능을 가진 사람을 오히려 자주 굴욕감에 빠뜨린다고 주장. 투자 목표 설정: 가장 중요한 것은 돈으로 무엇을 이루려는지, 그리고 왜 그런지 생각하는 것이며, 시장 분위기에 따라 마음을 바꾸지 않아야 한다고 강조. 시장 가격 형성에 대한 입장: 전쟁, 유가, 중국, 연준 정책 등 대중이 떠드는 뉴스는 이미 시장 가격에 반영되어 있어 개인에게 큰 힘이 없다는 주장. 특정 종목이나 시점에 대한 예측 근거는 제시하지 않음. 실행 방법: 초보자는 지수나 지수 ETF 등을 활용해 수동적으로 투자하고, 시장 타이밍을 맞추거나 1년 뒤 유망 종목을 고르려 하지 말 것. 학습 권고: 영향력 있는 투자 서적 20권을 1년 안에 읽으라고 권하며, 투자 성과는 투자 대상보다 자기 행동 관리에 더 좌우된다고 결론. 언급 종목과 방향: 개별 종목 언급 없음. 대상 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언 없음. 출연자 전망: 특정 가격 전망이나 목표가는 제시하지 않음. 장기적 분산·수동 투자 관점만 확인됨.
다듬은 글
sometimes I'm asked gee I'm just kind of a novice investor I haven't been really doing this long I don't really know much about what I'm doing any suggestions you got for me and let me just make a few points one of them is that is often confusing to people who as beginning investors are typically either relatively young in adult life or later on in trying to catch up for what they didn't do earlier in their life that somehow someway success is about being smarter than everyone else or at least smarter than most people as in the vein that the smarter guy wins let me just assure you that's not true the fact is the market is really a function in all of its capital phases whether it's stocks bonds currencies Futures whatever that's primary goal is to mess with your head and get you to do stupid stuff at stupid times and hurt yourself buying High selling low figuring out a different way to do it next time so you don't associate the next time with the prior Time stuff like that and that stuff can really Wango a investor without a lot of experience there's an age-old saying a Market's place where a personal experience makes some money and a person with money gets an experience but more fundamental than any of that is the fact that it's really more about temperament than it is about either smarts or extreme education and particularly people that have a lot of trouble with this are people that are really really smart and have a lot of Education most of those people think it's about that because that's how they condition their whole lives and then when they get into the market they find themselves getting beaten Around The Head and Shoulders by the Market's ability to be the great humiliator and they're not used to that and they can't quite get over it and often those people have a really tough time the most important thing to get really simply is that most of the things you hear about talk about can get excited about that everybody knows about that your friends will talk about that you see in the newspaper that are on TV that are the chitter chatter of the world that stuff sorting in prices and for the most part the most important thing for a novice or beginning investor to get is thinking through what are you really trying to accomplish with your money and why and are you going to be really thinking that down the road or you're going to change your mind with the whims of the moment if you can change your minds with the Winds of the moment I'd suggest Capital markets are a very rough place to be if your goal is to kind of build for long-term purposes whatever they are think those through aim at them try to keep it real simple and basic for the most part and this is an age-old rule about Capital markets when I say age-old that's not true but it's it's a it's a it's a rule it's almost it's all the time and I'm pretty much age old myself these days the reality is the basis for making a trade other than being passive towards your goal is and only is somehow some way thinking you know something other people don't know which is non-trivial it's very hard to do if you do it all the time you're certainly wrong you can only really do that sometimes and you have to stop and ask yourself the question what is it I know other people don't know that relates to markets that's important and why is it that I know it when other people don't know it but if it's just simply everybody says XYZ and I think XYZ sounds stupid the reality is since everybody talks about that that's the part that the market price is very effectively so you can just think through all the things you hear about as I speak here toward the back of August in uh 2023.
uh whether it's the Ukraine war whether it's the price of oil whether it's what people think about China whether it's what people think about what the FED will or won't do all of those things tend to have relatively limited power over markets because markets priced them because everybody's debate has already analyzed itself and moved into pricing before they opened their mouths before the newspapers write about it before the TV pundits pontificate stupidly about it and what you should be doing then is focusing more or less as a beginner passively on the categories of Securities that you would own to get you to your long-term goal and by passive I mean you could just buy indexes you could buy ETFs of indexes or you could buy underlying principal Securities but be very passive about it don't be trying to time the market don't be trying to pick which kind of stock you think will do best in the next year then the next part and the final part of this blather that I'm shoving at you that that I'm going to do today is do something that I did in my first year as an adult in this realm of endeavor when I was at that point in time uh quite simply 22 years old which is go to the library or go online and look for well in fact I I'd suggest you go online and look for a list of the most influential investment books and then go read 20 of them you can get 20 of them read in a year pretty easily and you'll learn everything you really need to know to know about how to behave yourself because in the end it's more about how you behave yourself than it is about the things you invest in thank you for listening to me and I hope you found this useful and enjoyabl
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