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hello because today we're talking about the process of retiring and what you need to do to prepare so now it's time to bring in today's special guests with this all-important topic of course my good friend as usual great to see you it is so good to be here dave good to see you guys too all right and of course we have one of your and my special guest today and that's mark fober economist and editor and publisher of the gloom boom and doom newsletter which is available on gloomboomdoom.com mark great to have you back here with us on the show well thank you very much for having me on your show and good day to all your viewers and to you thank you very kind of you to say so mark so we have gone through the gloom boom and doom though that's for sure i think the fed is having a temper or a taper tantrum let's say and they've really getting ready to give the stock market a knuckle sandwich everyone's anticipating a march 15th rate increase of 50 basis points because the fed has gotten way behind the curve on inflation give us your take well my take is that yes there is the talk about tightening but look they published the cpi index for january and it was over seven percent and people in the know they will all tell you that the cost of living increases in the us are between approximately 7 to 15 depending on the household and depending on where you live and now the fed is talking about increasing interest rates this year say four times or five times and the maximum they will do it is to go to say one and a half percent so if you have inflation at seven percent and the interest rate is one and a half percent i can tell you this is not monetary tightening it is relative tightening but as they talk about inflation every day the vet members of course academics that don't go and shop like ordinary people do they continue to buy assets to buy assets in other words to expand the central bank's balance sheet is inflationary and not just in the u.s globally they do that especially this genius lagard at the ecb in europe so mark let me ask you this do you think they should do more do you think the fed should increase rates faster or is are you just saying that they're so far behind the curve taking action that it is what it is my view is in economics the government should stay out and just as have the global framework and the legal system and not intervene the federal reserve is a manipulator of markets they claim that they stabilize market no they destabilize markets they've always done that for the last 40 years they printed money they should have increased interest rates much earlier much earlier but they didn't do that and now it's not the perfect time to do it but because of the ill-conceived policies and their failed interventions the fed is now blocked into two scenarios where they in one they increase rates as the economy will plunge right away badly yeah i i agree with you i agree with you mark i completely agree with you on that i think the fed has mismanaged the situation entirely the last time though they did a 50 basis point move was in 1999 before the big.com collapse and so they couldn't you know they couldn't get ahead of asset price inflation obviously but today inflation is the worst it's been since 1982 it's probably more than 15 because the cpi doesn't include things like health care energy or food expenses so it's completely contrived and so you and i know the numbers are much higher but the real issue today facing retirees and our viewers is what's going on in the markets with all of these mood swings that have been dictated by the fed's actions in the last three months they have literally ruined the stock market afford momentum they've ruined the market party so to speak and so we are expecting a 50 basis point move in march from the fed which they haven't done since 1999.
give me your idea on what that move should be is 50 basis points correct or should they make it higher or lower i want to answer the question this way if you have inflation at the current rate and the last time it happened as you correctly pointed out in 1982 the fed fund rate in 82 was at 15 15 1-5 and the fed nowadays there are volks this is the cultural vocaism they're not central bankers they're money printers apprentices yeah i'll tell you interest rates in my view should be minimum seven percent yeah and the struggle is that's that's the behind the curve comment they're so far behind you know how do they get from here to seven and that's where one of the biggest risks to the economy could be a fed mistake a fed not tightening enough a fed tightening too much do you think right now the biggest risk to the economy in the united states is a fed misstep or do you think that there's potentially a bigger risk to the economy here they've made mistakes for the last 20 years i want to explain to you very clearly the view of the fade was you print money you boost asset prices this is interventionism and because asset prices go up consumption will go up yes consumption did go up but the trade deficit of the u.s is at the record high the they print money in the u.s and the production is somewhere else in the world well sure that all of that money printing you know benefits all of the emerging markets like china because we buy things that they import to our country and so that's that's pretty much we're globalizing the fed in that sense but you're right about that but it doesn't change the fact that we're in a rising rain environment and it's very scary for people who are retired or retiring at this time and so what insight or advice would you have for our viewers in that regard in this kind of environment mark what would you tell them i want to tell them what i do because i'm also a elderly gentleman i may look very young but i'm also over 70.
and i still work but in theory i could be a retiree so i look at the world this way the more the government is planning and we have in the world nowadays the leftists these are people who are on the left all these people they want government interventions they don't want to take any personal responsibilities they want the government to give you this they want the government to give you that if the government says you have to get vaccinated they all say oh wonderful we'll do that and so we have a system which is very uncapitalistic where the government manipulates more and more the economy and your personal life as we know as it has happened and in this environment i want to tell you is very difficult to plan anything because the government if they could tell small shop owners and independent businessman you must shut down your business you can't go out anymore and so forth they can do anything with you yeah there's no resistance to speak of except the truckers but then the government says okay we close the accounts of people that give money to the truckers in canada and so forth so in this environment planning is very difficult if i were an american i would go and move in the countryside in the south far away from socialists far away from san francisco los angeles california new york chicago these are all volk cities they are dangerous people move out because the criminality has gone up who is responsible for the criminality the defund the police people you know it's funny mark just getting back to the financial stuff i have to tell you i was just this morning thinking about that that you know in the late 90s i actually called that the tech bubble would burst and and in 2007 i said we're getting near a top at some point we could have a drop bigger than the last one but i have to tell you right now i feel a little bit more lost because back then market cycles were a little more predictable because based upon reality today it's based upon all artificial manipulation and that's what makes it so much harder to figure out what's going to happen we got to leave it there for now jeff jeff small mark farber thanks so much for for having uh for you guys being here with us today thank you there you have it dave mark thank you well thank you very much thank you for watching today's video the five essential steps to take before retiring if you enjoyed this video please give us a thumbs up to give us a like and make sure ]
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