저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: Jim Rogers는 연준이 금리를 공격적으로 올리기 어렵다고 보며, 전쟁은 시장에 나쁘고 석유·농산물 등 원자재 공급 감소는 장기적으로 가격 상승 요인이라고 주장한다. 연준 금리 정책: 연준은 인플레이션을 뒤늦게 인정하는 아마추어 관료라고 비판하며, 연내 6회 인상이 필요하지만 실제로는 중간에 멈출 가능성이 크다고 봤다. 7회 인상은 가능성이 낮다고 언급했다. 에너지: 알려진 석유 매장량이 감소 추세이고 셰일 붐은 버블이었다고 평가했다. 석탄·원전 축소로 에너지 공급은 더 줄어들 것이며, 대통령이 누가 되든 이 흐름은 바뀌지 않는다고 말했다. 전기차 확산에도 불구하고 화석연료 문제는 당분간 지속된다는 입장이다. 원자재·농업: 공급이 줄고 수요가 유지되거나 늘면 가격은 오른다는 논리를 폈다. 미국 농부 평균 연령 58세, 일본 66세를 근거로 농업 인력 부족을 강조했다. 원자재에 대해서는 전반적으로 강세 견해를 유지하고 있다. 지정학·시장 전망: 현재 주가는 오르고 유가는 내리는 흐름이라 시장은 분쟁이 곧 끝날 것으로 보고 있다고 해석했다. 다만 본격적인 전면전으로 확대되면 시장은 좋아하지 않으며, 장기적으로는 큰 약세장이 올 것이라고 경고했다. 미국 증시에 대해서는 장기 약세 견해를 유지했다. 투자 조언: 투자자는 자신이 아는 분야(자동차·스포츠·패션 등)에 집중하고, 조사 후 소수 종목을 오래 보유하라고 조언했다. 핫팁에 따라 자주 사고파는 방식은 실패한다고 했다. 진행자와 함께 전문 분야 특화가 실제 부의 원천이라는 데 동의했다. 출연자 전망 요약: 미국 증시 장기 약세, 원자재(에너지·농산물) 상승 견해, 연준 금리 인상 제한적 전망, 전쟁 장기화는 시장 악재.
다듬은 글
hi everyone i'm david scranton and economy and recently we've seen soaring inflation issues with the supply chain and now rising interest rates the question becomes where will it end and what does this ultimately mean for your retirement and now of course it's time to bring in lways great to spend time with you and you as well dave yeah and uh of course now to bring in one of our favorite guests and that's jim rogers chairman of rogers holdings and beylin trust incorporated jim rogers thanks so much for being back with us here on the income generation i'm delighted to be here but maybe i don't have maybe jeff just has all the answers i have all the answers jim but i'd rather hear him from you and so would everybody else okay you correct me if i'm wrong i will definitely do that um but you know that no you make me laugh you're funny on that note here we sit today in our last conversation a quick recap we thought volatility was going to happen in the back half of this year and it's happened way more recent than that and now the market's recovered and the undercurrent of the market is positive even in a rising rate environment the next question i have for you though is will the fed do the right thing and not accelerate rates too quickly and kill the market and the economy and will they do that because of russia invading ukraine jeff what do you mean is the fed going to do the right thing they're bureaucrats they're incompetent they're academics what are you talking about i guess i've been around longer than you all they care about is keeping their jobs they don't care about you and me and they think that if they print more money everything will be okay yeah they have to raise interest rates but i assure you jeff if things get messy they'll slow down they're amateurs well that's why that's why you're answering the questions and i'm asking them jim for that exact reason you're very entertaining and i think that's the correct answer they are amateurs and they're behind the yield curve dave what do you think yeah i i'm skeptical jim about this uh this ability for them to raise rates six more times this year uh what's your best guess do you think the fed's gonna pull it off or do you think they're going to find a reason to stop david they should raise it six more times they're far behind i mean they've been telling us there's no inflation for you know since the beginning of time but the question is as bureaucrats will they we all know there's inflation so they're behind but i cannot imagine that they would do it seven times this year because it will hurt too much and they will panic they should but i doubt if they will yep so find an excuse not to that's what i've that's what jeff and i have talked about uh all along so let's let's switch gears here for a minute and talk about something really exciting jim we know that the electric vehicle adoption rate is doubling every 14 months and that's a global phenomenon so is this energy's last hurrah at some point will just energy just a collapse in prices in maybe three four five years what what you know what's your forecast on that well yeah known reserves of oil have been in decline for some time we had a bubble in fracking which you know put off the the problems with with energy supplies now the war of course has made it worse but no there are going to be continued problems in the hydrocarbons business oil and gas for some time to come because known reserves are declining yes fracking will help us but now everybody knows that fracking was a bubble and you got to pay your bills is that even true if is that true if trump gets re-elected i'm teasing you is that true even if president trump gets re-elected in 2024 wait it doesn't matter who's the president 2024 that's not going to make suddenly more gas gas and oil reserves to suddenly be in the ground whoever you know if the president of exxon is elected president it's still not gonna that's not gonna make more gas at all underground we have an ongoing problem and it gets worse jeff because everybody is down on the coal so we cold close the coal mines well fine that's okay if you if that's what you want but that means less energy then you close in the nuclear power plants that's okay but that means less energy i know you uh have predicted for a while a long-term bear market in the united states and uh but commodities you've been relatively bullish on is that part of the reason why you've been bullish on commodities because of limited supplies that are becoming more and more apparent well no of course whenever supply goes down whatever it is and demand either goes up or stays the same it means you're going to have higher prices i mean david you know nobody has become a farmer the average age of farmers in america is 58.
the average age of farmers in japan is 66. i could go on and on i mean do you know how to i suggest you learn how to drive a tractor that both of you that's a great idea dave why don't we just go buy you know a couple hundred acres and start planting there you go that's great hey you're right run a boat fly an airplane just driving a tractor should be easy after all that by more than 200 acres you'll be really really really rich not not a bad idea jim not a bad idea but with all the stuff going on in ukraine being the largest wheat producer the third i guess largest reproducer in russia being the fifth largest we know that there's going to be significant depressions in those countries and what's the reverberating effect going to be on our markets even though the current uptrend in the market the undercurrent is up what do you see happening in relation to the geopolitical issues well unless there's all-out really horrible horrible war what we have so far is bad enough but i'm talking about you know march armies marching around the countries of europe i the markets are telling me this is not going to last much longer you can see what's happening stocks are going up oil is going down i mean people somebody thinks that this is going to end fairly soon if it doesn't then first prepare for the horrible bear market we're going to have a horrible bear market eventually but if this turns into war oh my gosh i cannot remember any market that likes war you know jim you recently were talking to a bunch of first-time investors and i believe your words were that they should stay informed and buy what they know which is good advice but if i'm in technology let's say and i buy all technology stocks then i'm not diversified so can you expound on what you meant by that well you know david when i went to wall street there were all these people who were educated and older and experienced i thought they all knew what they were doing it didn't take me long to realize they don't know any more than i do you know we're all sitting here fumbling around together but i finally learned if you want to be a successful investor stay with what you know everybody watching this knows something about automobiles or sports or fashion or something stay with what you know and when something comes up that you know will be a positive change do some research and buy the stock and then send me an email and i'll do research too that's how you get rich if if i told you david you could only have 20 investments in your life you wouldn't listen to hot tips you wouldn't be jumping in and out of things every week you would stay until you saw something that you knew was going to work you would research it you would buy it you would own it for a long time and you would know when to sell it that's how you become successful jumping in and out using hot tips that's not going to work well you're right jim if you think about it most wealth real wealth in this world is created by people who really aren't diversified because they're in an area they specialize in that area and they have a niche but for average investors everyone's told to diversify across the board regardless so jeff small jim rogers uh it's been our pleasure thank you so much for being here today on the income generation my pleasure thanks for watching today's video eight essential ingredients to a successful retirement plan if you enjoyed it click the thumbs up button ]
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