저자: Retirement Income Source · 외국인
다듬은 글
today we're talking about the economy which of course includes inflation as well as a whole list of other issues likely to impact the markets in a major way in 2022 so here to discuss this also important topic is my good friend jeff small president of arbor financial services a retirement income store in melbourne florida jeff as usual great to be with you great to be here dave and we also have today's special guest jim rogers jim is chairman of rogers holdings and vlan trust incorporated he's also a very popular financial commentator jim great to have you back here on the income generation david i'm delighted to be here but david i'm just a simple person we don't need much introduction life is like a box of chocolates i get it jim yes exactly all right so let's let the fun begin jim so listen let me tell you what i'm dealing with lately i'm dealing with consumers whose minds are poisoned and terrified of the oncoming hurricane or storm a la a financial recession so your your predictions from january that we discussed and forward are fastly materializing so what what should investors brace for what should they do today going forward because we really want to focus on them because that's what's important today jim well first of all jeff people should only invest in what they themselves know a lot about they shouldn't listen to me or anybody else stay with what you know if you want to be successful if you listen to me and something works you don't know what to do you don't know why you bought it if it goes down you don't know what to do because you don't know why you bought it so please stay with what you know i am convinced we're going to have a very serious a recession in the foreseeable future and if we do you better know what you're doing because it's going to be bad so the problem with that jim although that's great advice is that most people know the stock market maybe indirectly through stock mutual funds but they know the stock market of course the problem is in times of as you've recently predicted an extended bear market or even as you just said a recession when the tide goes out all the boats tend to fall but stocks are what they know so how does an average investor fix that if that's all they know be sure you invest own in stocks that you know a lot about but i would also suggest you start learning about other things because in the world economy there are interest rates bonds there are commodities because we all need cotton and sugar and iron uh there's not just i mean there's bonds or stocks there's commodities there's a lot of stuff going on there's property please it's not easy i wish this were easy oh david i wish this was easy to get rich but you and jeff both know this it's not easy getting rich that's right that's right no it's it's definitely not easy getting rich but um you know i heard something really bizarre yesterday jim janet yellen in a congressional testimony signified to russia that as long as they don't stop their oil exports the globe won't go into a recession and i just about fell off my chair when she said that and i reflect back to an earlier showing we had this year in january where you said the people at the fed uh to put it politely weren't very smart i think that was validated i couldn't believe she did that what do you think what can i say she's got two degrees from fancy ivy league universities but please i know that doesn't mean anything and she has proved over and over again but they all have they all prove many times they don't know what they're doing and the problem is jeff you and i are the ones who have to pay for it and everybody watching this show oh we're paying for it all right gas is just a penny below five dollars a gallon and people are starting to shut down here economically that's a threshold for most average consumers here and they're saying wait a minute now we can't spend money on everything and anything gas is just too expensive but jim you seem to be saying that or hinting toward i want to make sure i have you correct that we're going to go into a recession perhaps a really serious recession which in theory at least that in of itself should solve the inflation problem isn't that correct not necessarily it did not solve the inflation problem in the 1970s and got worse because they kept borrowing money and spending money and printing money no it's not that simple okay i love it you're right stagflation and i talked about stagflation six months ago on uh being interviewed on a major network and everybody thought i was crazy the the host was like stagflation really and now we're starting to hear people talking about that in the media because it's becoming a serious concern right jeff it is and another serious concern is everything we're hearing in the media gym is about the next leg down in the market that this is just a false bear market rally and so what's your thesis going forward jim i know it's really hard to consult the crystal ball and everything's based on statistics and educated guesses here but you've got so much history and knowledge tell us what your thesis is going forward on where we see the next leg down or will the market trend up from here yeah i make plenty of mistakes i make many mistakes we could do a weekly show about my mistakes so don't think i know what i'm doing but i will say there's a lot of pessimism around right now huge amounts of pessimism that often leads to a big rally if something happens such as peace in ukraine or who knows what it could lead to a huge rally in my view that would be the last rally and i hope i am not so short yet i have not sold yet but if that happens then i would probably start selling and selling shore if you're thinking it's going to get you know make it a little like it another dead cat bounce if you will in the market but after that you think we're going to we're going to put in new lows in the market below which what we saw just about a month ago david the next bear market's going to be the worst in my lifetime we had a big bear market in 2008 because of too much debt since 2008 the debt everywhere has skyrocketed all over the world all over the world so it's going to be a huge bear market next time around i'm trying to scare people i just want people to do their homework figure out what's going on and be prepared well i think on that debt note jim the market is really co-dependent on the fed and the central banks globally continually propping up stock values by lowering rates going negative or printing up more money and i see it just as a repetitive cycle i mean it really just is paper they're never going to pay the principal back on that they can hit the delete button and it all disappears and nobody would care so the whole thing is based on maybe a pyramid you could say or even a ponzi scheme well i wish it was that easy jeff we just all print money all day long you know the bank of japan guy goes to work and he says he prints his word unlimited amounts of money if that's all it's going to take hooray hooray hooray won't it be wonderful none of us ever have to work again we never have to work we just have to print print print money it's not that easy and it's not going to be that easy this time around if they do just spread money inflation is going to get very very serious the currency markets are going to cave in and interest rates are going to go through the roof i guess your answered my last question i was going to say if you're expecting the worst recession of a lifetime and the fed's response that is always so to push down interest rates as crazy as may sound is it possible that this may be a time to lock in some decent interest rates and things like longer term high quality bonds or things like that but it sounds like your answer to that is no because you're expecting more of that 1970s stagflation scenario yes there will be times when interest rates will go down the central banks around the world have that much power but they cannot control it forever and david the more money you print eventually people like me say wait a minute i've been to this rodeo before this is not my first rodeo i know how this is going to end and we know that in the end interest rates are going to go through the roof if they could continue to print huge amounts of money and we have big inflation i know how this will end you don't have to believe me look it up it's pretty simple jim it's funny i i agree with you 100 eventually that will happen because our currency will get debased and we'll have much more higher rate of inflation that's much more permanent all we can do is hope and pray that we have a a couple more rounds uh before that worst case scenario happens so we'll have to have you back soon uh to get your play-by-play on how things are coming along and don't ever forget life is like a box of chocolates jeff small jim rogers thank you both for being here with us today on the income generation i love being on with you guys let's do it again thank you jim thank you for watching today's video the do's and don'ts of starting a business in retirement if you enjoyed it please click the thumbs up button to give us a like and make sure that you subscribe to our youtube channel for new content each and every week you
Comments 0