저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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2022년 증시 전망: 기업 이익이 시장 수익률을 결정하므로 향후 12개월은 대체로 양호할 것이라는 견해. 다만 미국 등 주요국의 유동성 축소와 금리 인상으로 수익률은 제한적일 수 있고 조정 국면이 예상된다. 시장 흐름: 2022년 첫 거래일 센섹스 900포인트 이상 상승해 59,000 회복, 니프티 270포인트 이상 상승해 17,100 부근 마감. 오미크론 확산에도 경제활동 제한은 예상되지 않음. 실적 전망: 은행·금융과 IT가 기업 이익의 약 55%를 차지하며 두 분야 모두 내년~후년 양호할 것으로 봄. 설비투자 사이클 시작으로 2022~2023년 이익 성장 동력 기대. 수급 전망: 글로벌 유동성 회수와 금리 인상기에는 신흥국에서 선진국으로 자금이 이동하는 경향이 있어 신흥시장에 부담. 투자 전략: 시장 타이밍은 불가능하므로 조정기에도 시장에 남아 있는 것이 바람직하며, 대규모 매도 후 재진입은 권장하지 않음. 수익률은 둔화될 수 있으나 매도 이유는 없다는 입장.
다듬은 글
well it was a happy new year for the lal street the market started 2022 with a bang with the sensex skyrocketing over 900 points to reclaim 59 000. nifty also surging over 270 points to shut shop above 17 hundred markets kicked off the new year on a firm note despite rising covet related restrictions following a threefold jump in weekly cases so what led to the bullish momentum in the market though omicron is spreading fast the market doesn't expect any restriction on economic activity that will impact growth and earnings strong gst collection numbers and india's manufacturing pmi are also showing expansion and that helps sentiment to remain buoyant auto stocks were the darling of the street today after automakers reported decent sales numbers and while markets were on a roll for the first trading session of 2022 it remains to be seen whether the rally will continue on the livestream and as markets begin 2022 on a firm footing we get you an exclusive conversation with market veteran randy agarwal he talks about what's in store for markets in 2022 hello and welcome to this business today market special i'm udain mukherjee with me is abha pakaya let me start by wishing all of you watching a very very happy new year it's been a difficult year 2021 and we certainly hope for all of you it will be a much brighter and better year but well this is the first of a series of pre-budget market specials that we are running on this channel the where we getting some of the old-timers on the street to tell us how this year is shaping up from the market and whether the budget will move the needle with the kind of earnings growth which the street has been pencilling in which is the basis of the kind of move that we've seen in the market over the last couple of years and our first guest on this series of specials is uh ramdev agarwal of motilal oswald very good to have you on the show and wish you a very happy new year as well but what's the sense you're getting as at the start of the year because december was a bit of a turbulent month do you see more turbulence ahead in 2022 or at the end of it you think we'll be fine i think we should do fine for the next 12 months because i see i mean my fundamental belief is corporate earnings drive the return in the markets both i mean the players can come and go but if the corporate earnings are strong i think we have a good chance that markets will be good maybe if not in these 12 months next 15 months or 78 months but broadly if the copper terminus direction is right i think uh we are in could begin and here i think uh what people miss out is the size of size of allocation in the corporate earnings that are banking finance and id these two themselves make about 55 percent of google corporate and both of them are looking to be very good for next next year or two both of us know that returns from the markets are never linear i mean they don't grow compound at 15 17 percent every year we've had two good years could this then be one of those years where investors actually don't make too much money but the prudent course of action would still be to stay put and not get thrown by any intra-year volatility my idea is always to stay interested in the market even if the market is somewhat corrective uh i i don't believe that we can time the market at the top as well as at the bottom both don't happen so one should broadly remain allocated in the market and it is painful to see the markets going down or not going anywhere for some time uh so yes on the back of very large return last one half years probabilistically uh it should be corrective phase and this is a year of complete withdrawal of global stimulus and also rate hikes happening world over so what happens in terms of flow from developed market to developing markets typically in the right cycle i believe whenever the global rate cycles are up uh the global investors they traditionally sell emerging markets and buy them develop markets so that's the kind of field we are getting and uh so uh so i don't know what fis will do but as i said uh the copper turning cycle is just about turned last year and this year it looks to be even stronger and i think the biggest thing is the corporate capital cycle is starting and that should put a lot of energy into the earnings growth between 22 and 23.
so uh yes i mean the returns could be muted but definitely there is no reason for people to sell and get out and wait for the better time to come to enter the market you
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