저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
2022년 4월 인도 시장 조정에 대한 Vijay Kedia의 견해. 결론: 2021년 9~10월경 강세장이 끝났고 2022년 3월이 바닥이라는 입장이며, 본인 포트폴리오는 중소형주 중심으로 유지한다. 시장 구조 변화 주장: 2003년 이후 강세장이 길고 약세장이 짧은 구조로 바뀌었다고 본다. 2003~2007 강세장은 5년 가까이 지속된 반면 약세장은 9개월 이내에 끝났다는 논리다. 2020년 이후에도 같은 패턴이 반복됐다고 말한다. 지수 고점 흐름: 지수가 2만1000 → 4만2000 → 6만3000 포인트 부근에서 고점을 찍었고, 다음 고점은 8만4000 부근일 수 있다고 전망한다. 지수 자체는 오해를 부르기 쉽다고 본다. 중소형주 전망: 중형주와 일부 대형주가 20~30% 이상 조정받았으며, 지수보다 중소형주가 먼저 신고가를 낼 것이라고 예상한다. 투자 전략은 이 전제에 기반한다. 원자재 및 지정학 리스크: 지금까지 보유 종목 중 원자재 가격 상승으로 손실 본 종목은 없으며, 원자재 호황이 수년간 지속될 것으로 본다. 미국의 잦은 전쟁과 지출을 언급하며 강대국 간 충돌을 우려하지만, 구체적인 수출입 섹터 포지션 설명은 없다. 출연자 관점: 조정 국면을 큰 구조적 추세 안의 일시적 국면으로 보며, 중소형 성장주 보유를 유지하는 장기 투자 관점을 취한다.
다듬은 글
vijay a pleasure to have you on the show but how have you read the market over the last few weeks because we've had a pullback from the uh from the ukraine scale but from here on do you think it's a phase of consolidation and correction that the market is going through or do you think something has fundamentally changed after the after the big up move of last year according to me according to my limited knowledge i think there has been a major structural change in indian capital market and it has happened after 2003 if you will notice that before 2003 all the bear markets were longer and bull markets were very short they are shorter compared to the bear market now in 2003 i think first time in the history it has happened that bull market lasted for 245 years and the bear market lasted not more than nine months and before that it used to happen in just an opposite way no bull market ever lasted more than nine months or no bear market ever lost it less than nine months in 2000 after 2003 and seven or eight bull market was for five years and bear market was over within nine months so and the same thing has happened in 2020 and remember the 2007 2008 bear market 2003-7 bull market was mother of all the bull market i always say that mother of all the bull markets are always followed by mother of all the bear markets same thing happened in 2008 same thing happened in 2020 again the mother of all this or a father of all this bull market started and it ended with father of all the bear market in form of covet and all but indexed from high to low made high to low was made within nine months and index just turned down from from there to never to touch it again so this is what i feel that there has been a total structural shift in in this market and somehow i think that this market is actually counting a table of 21.
first stop was 20 21 000 second top was 42 000 now it was around 63 000 maybe next top will be somewhere around 84 000 or something so i think there is a complete shift fundamental shift in structure where are we now vijay but do you think uh we will start making new high sometime in 2022 again or do you see this process of the broader market consolidation i'm not talking about the nifty and the sensex but many mid caps smaller large caps have corrected between 20 and 30 some even more do you think this process is coming to an end and we'll start seeing new highs again or do you see this phase lasting longer you see i think according to me this bull market or bull phase or bull run whatever you call it it had ended in 2021 september or october somewhere around that time index had made made all-time high and after that it consolidated it fell down and i think during this march 22 whatever index sectors whatever bottom index had made i think according to me that is the bottom and forget about the index i have said this number of times this index is very deceptive i am investor in a mid cap and i feel that all these mid caps are going to show a new high uh before the index shows so this is what my person all my investments are you know made in this theory only okay let me ask you about uh something else vijay but forget about the index but as an individual investor one major theme that you must be grappling with right now is the kind of rise in commodity prices that we've seen over the last few months i mean as a professional investor how have we incorporated that into your own investment philosophy and strategy you see so far uh mine i have understood my all my investments till date none of my investments are having a negative impact because of the rise in the commodity price i think so that is why i am not much bothered and so far commodities concern i i feel that this boom in commodity is going to remain here for many more years to come and uh so this is what what my strategy is this and i am i am still staying invested vijay what are you making of the geopolitical uh risks in the market the way this may play out on the import export sector as well uh you know how would you position yourselves there again you know even if it's if it's just in terms of um you know the kind of guidance you'd like to share with some of our uh newer investors you know in terms of how you see things playing out you say i'll tell you ever since i am in this market i am facing this geopolitical race america is every time in war for the last 30 years they have for 13 wars and they spend 13 trillion this is what i tweeted also few days back so the problem is this when there is a strong country fighting a war with a weak country i think that's not a big issue the problem arises when a strong country fights with her with a strong country so there is a song i have written i will just inside few lines for you that i am following the same thing yes you
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