저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 비트코인을 인플레이션 헤지로서 '최고의 대안'으로 보며 강한 상승 확신을 밝혔다. [거시 환경] 2020년 달러가 약 7% 하락했고, 미국 인플레이션은 낮지만 디지털 경제 때문에 통계가 과소 또는 과대 반영될 수 있다고 언급. 달러가 장기 차트상 붕괴(breakdown)하면 연준과 재무부가 정책을 재검토하게 될 것이라 봤다. [채권 금리] 미국 10년물 금리가 하락 추세선을 돌파해 상승한 것은 모두의 예상 밖이었다는 점을 짚었다. 재정·통화정책 실수에 대한 우려가 커지고 있다고 진단. [비트코인] 비트코인은 약 한 달 사이 두 배가 됐고 2만 달러 고점을 돌파해 4만 달러까지 상승했다. RenMac의 Jeff deGraaf는 비트코인이 2017년 포물선 상승 후 전례 없는 움직임이라고 평가했다. 캐시 우드는 비트코인이 4년 주기의 반감기 구조 때문에 주식과 달리 3년 만에 고점을 회복했다고 설명. [인플레이션 헤지] 우드는 '비트코인이 인플레이션 헤지로서 그 어떤 것보다 낫다(최고의 헤지)'고 단언했다. 금도 함께 상승했으나 최근에는 비트코인에 뒤처지고 있다고 언급. [기관 수요] 기업과 기관들이 비트코인을 현금 대체 자산으로 사려고 우드에게 직접 문의하고 있다고 전했다. 스퀘어, 마이크로스트래티지 사례를 언급하며 기술·혁신 기업들의 재무제표 편입이 늘 것이라 봤다. [규제] OCC의 Brian Brooks가 공개 블록체인을 결제 정산에 쓸 수 있고 은행이 노드가 될 수 있다고 밝힌 것을 '큰 검증'으로 평가. 스테이블코인은 은행 중개 축소(탈중개화)로 가는 다리가 될 것이라 전망. [시장 규모] 비트코인 시가총액은 약 7,000억 달러로, 테슬라(8,000억 달러 이상)에 근접한 수준이라 언급. 두 아이디어 모두 자신이 본 가장 큰 아이디어 중 하나라고 밝혔다. [출연자 전망] 비트코인이 장기적으로 400~500,000달러까지 갈 수 있다는 이전 인터뷰 내용을 언급했다. 혁신 기반의 지수적 성장이 어떤 환경에서도 우수한 수익을 낼 것이라 낙관했다. [리스크·조건] 명시적 리스크 언급은 없었으며, 인플레이션 우려와 금리 상승이 동시에 맞물리는 상황을 조건으로 제시했다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to cryptos R Us I am George you may be distracted recently by what has happened with Bitcoin and the overall crypto market and that is why in this video I want to show you a clip from Kathy Wood of arkh invest now Kathy Wood is one of the most respected and well-known portfolio managers out there she's also known as being a big Tesla bug a very loyal Tesla follower and also she is known as being a Bitcoin bug someone that has in Bitcoin and been studying Bitcoin for quite a long time and in this video she basically gives a rundown of what she sees coming up for 2021 with the new Administration with the FED policy monetary policy right and a whole lot of economic things now I'm not going to show you the whole clip but feel free to watch it because it is very informative and I bet you'll learn a lot from it but she specifically talks about the dollar and what may happen if the dollar inflates and what are some situations that would actually cause the dollar to inflate even more and of course she talks about Bitcoin so let me show you the video let me react to some of it and then give you my final thoughts all right so this is the video I want to show you guys in total it's about 36 minutes so quite long but I'm fast forwarding to the latter half of this video where she talks about the dollar inflation and of course Bitcoin um I think another variable we're watching very carefully here is the dollar the dollar dropped uh roughly 7% last year so we in the United States lost uh 7% uh in purchasing power relative to other currencies around the world uh we also lost a bit to inflation um but inflation is is low and may even be uh overstated because uh the statistics don't capture the digital economy and the deflationary impact of the digital economy that well but if it does break down from here the dollar it will be a major breakdown if you just look at a long-term chart and uh it will force the FED it's another variable that will force the FED to reassess its position and perhaps the treasury uh so mentioning uh purchasing power on the Innovation front I'll I'll just mention um I'll I'll focus on bitcoin uh and as you know Bitcoin has doubled uh in the last month or so and uh it has uh it has it crossed the 20,000 Peak from 2007 and um has gone to 40,000 uh well what was very interesting this week uh Jeff deth uh friend from Ren Mack um oops excuse me we have H an interruption sorry about that um well Jeff degra from renmac uh he is a technician who also watches economic fundamentals as well as stock fundamentals but he knows how to read charts and he's seen a lot of charts and he said this Monday on his um on his weekly summary he said I've never seen anything like this he said uh uh usually when there's a parabolic move like Bitcoin enjoyed uh in 2017 uh it usually takes a generation for uh that asset or that stock or what what what have you commodity uh to get back to that Peak and what he means by generation he means 10 to 20 years uh and the fact that here we are uh after three years uh he he when I heard him say that first of all he didn't know what to do with it but I thought wow I've never heard him say that that means this has happened very rarely uh and in fact he he does not uh recall anything else looking like this okay I just had to stop right there because obviously um Bitcoin is unlike anything else it's not like any stock right it's not like gold or any other precious metal or Comm it because Bitcoin is programmed differently it's programmed to deflate there's a having event every four years which is why the cycle traditionally has been four years that is why Bitcoin has the ability to go from Peak to Peak within 3 years and not a generation like 10 or 20 years so that's the difference uh so um I found that interesting uh but I think part of this or the follow through might have been triggered by again the bond yield pushing doing what many people did not expect it to do forcing all kinds of questions are we have we made mistakes in monetary and fiscal policy that we are going uh that that we're going to pay for in the future and how are we going to pay for that and most most of us would say one of the ways typically is inflation inflating our way out of government debt and um as you know our preferred way at ARC of addressing this issue is to grow our way out of problems with Innovation so we're going to keep advocating for that uh and and of course um uh Advocate against inflation because it is the most regressive tax of of all uh so uh I do believe that just the questions being raised by is this money supply too much is the fiscal stimulus too much oh gosh the treasury bond yield has broken above this downtrend no one expected that what's happening one of the questions could be uh should I hedge myself against inflation and um I believe there is no better hedge against inflation than Bitcoin that's a powerful statement I believe there is no better hedge against inflation than Bitcoin out of everything out there the best hedge against inflation is Bitcoin according to Kathy Wood and as we know gold has been moving although now it's lagging Bitcoin um fairly dramatically so it's probably uh there's probably some share shift but I I do believe believe that both of them uh will do uh well over time until we find out the answer to this uh to this question uh and I I also am taking uh some confidence from the fact that we have individuals and companies calling us uh about Bitcoin and and other cryptocurrencies saying uh should we put some of our cash into Bitcoin these are companies and as you know square has done that uh as has micro strategy I think we're going to hear about more companies putting this hedge on their balance sheet uh as well particularly tech companies Innovative companies who understand the technology and are comfortable with it I also think that uh there's been more validation uh in the space when it comes to the uh Regulators so Brian Brooks at the OCC Office of the controller of the currency has basically um uh said that public blockchains uh can be used for the settlement uh of transactions and Banks can become nodes on those public uh blockchains well that was like a bolt of lightening I would I just never expected it uh and and I don't think anyone else did either except perhaps for some uh some in the crypto world who were working closely with the The Regulators which it clearly has been the case uh so again big validation yeah just real quick I did cover this story recently but I think it just what in one year and out the year for most people because they don't really understand the the impact it has basically the banks are allowed to come up with own stable coin and utilize the blockchain chain to send transactions to each other or to themselves right this is a big big validation of not only blockchain but also stable coins and basically crypto overall right so this is a huge thing that not a lot of people talk about it's not very fancy but you got to think about this is a big milestone you know just a few years ago there's no way no way that the OCC would have approved this but like Kathy said approved out of out of nowhere probably some crypto projects been working with OC to make this happen or maybe even the banks themselves because they have their own crypto right but this is also a big thing for the industry out there now this is going to help the banks uh cut their costs uh but we do think that uh stable coins which this will uh promote uh are simply a a they're they a bridge to what will we believe will be uh more of a disintermediation of banks uh and uh we will see more almost direct a consumer and businesses uh from the Central Banking systems of the world so uh that that will come in time but in the meantime this is a very exciting development uh certainly is getting uh everyone to study and and learn much more about C cryptocurrencies blockchains other crypto assets and uh from an innovation point of view uh we think we have miles to go um this is just the beginning and to put that in perspective uh today I believe uh bitcoin's the equivalent of market cap or network value is uh a a little over $700 billion and many people with it having doubled from 20,000 to 40,000 those sound like huge numbers um actually uh it's only seven a little over 700 billion what does that mean well Tesla is over 800 billion these are both very big Ideas some of the biggest ideas I have ever come across in my investing lifetime which has been a long time uh so I've been in the business more than 40 years couldn't be more excited about all of the Innovation taking place now never seen anything like it and I really do think some wonderful days are ahead for the exponential growth trajectories that are going to deliver Superior uh investment returns no matter what the environment is okay I'm going to stop right there because that's pretty much the end of it I would like to remind you guys that I did create another video based on an interview from Kathy Wood not too long ago that talks about how she believes Bitcoin can one day reach 400 or maybe even $500,000 uh per Bitcoin because of what's happening with companies and institutions getting involved replacing their gold with Bitcoin and also because Bitcoin is such a disruptive technology so as you can see Kathy Wood she knows what she's talking about and she's very very bullish on bitcoin all right so what did you think about Kathy Wood what she said there's a few things key points in there that she said that I think is really eye openening the friend that Kathy spoke to the chartist the one that said it takes a generation usually it takes a stock 10 to 20 years to go from Peak down and back to Peak again well it took Bitcoin only three years because Bitcoin is no stock and Bitcoin behaves very differently than all other stocks or Commodities or precious metals out there right also very interesting that she has people and she even said people companies institutions coming to her asking her if they should buy Bitcoin as a hedge right so all the stories we've been hearing about with grayscale with micro strategy Mass Mutual Fidelity all these guys right they are true she's verifying it there are a a lot of institutional investors that are very interested in buying Bitcoin getting involved and they're calling her directly to ask about it so overall I think this is a really good video very informative I love Kathy the way she describes things very down to earth she doesn't seem like she's bsing you it's not a sales pitch it's a very natural conversation and I really like it so what do you think about what Kathy said and about Bitcoin leave your thoughts in comments below thanks for watching hit the like And subscribe to the channel and while you're waiting for my next video check out these two others
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