저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 기관 채택 확대로 비트코인이 장기적으로 50만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 본다. 발언 배경: 2020년 11월 인터뷰로, 당시 비트코인은 약 2만 달러 수준이었다. 3월 코로나 급락 이후 거래소 구조와 거버넌스가 개선됐다고 평가했다. 기관 채택 논리: 기관은 비트코인 비중을 1%에서 시작해 5% 수준까지 늘릴 수 있으며, 실제 배분 비율은 4~6% 범위일 것으로 봤다. 1970~80년대 연기금의 부동산·신흥국 투자 확대 과정과 유사하다고 비유했다. 기업 자금 흐름: 마이크로스트래티지가 현금을 비트코인으로 전환했고, 스퀘어도 자산 일부를 비트코인에 배정했다. 페이팔의 거래 허용도 제도권 수용 신호로 언급했다. 가격 시나리오: 기관 배분이 현실화되면 비트코인 가격에 40만~50만 달러를 더할 수 있다고 주장했다. 다만 이는 몇 년 단위의 장기 과정으로 봤다. 진행자 해석: 진행자는 우드의 논리가 스톡투플로우 기반 희소성 모델과 달리 채택(adoption) 중심이라고 정리했다. 진행자 개인 전망은 사회자 발언이므로 제외한다. 리스크 언급: 우드 발언 자체에서 구체적 리스크 조건은 제시되지 않았다. 영상 설명란이 비어 있어 출연자 소속은 영상 내 소개 기준으로 ARK Invest로 표기했다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to crypto R Us I am George as Bitcoin approaches $30,000 one can't help but wonder where it'll end up being at the end of 2021 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 or maybe as high as $500,000 by the end of 2021 now recently googleheim CIO Scott Miner came out and said Bitcoin is worth $400,000 and he based it on scarcity and compared it to Gold but I found someone else that believes that Bitcoin is actually worth more than that that Bitcoin is actually worth $500,000 and I'm talking about CEO of arkh invest Katherine wood she actually did an interview about a month ago people weren't really paying attention and this is a good listen so in this video I want to show you this clip also react to it and give you my final thoughts all right let's get started let's see what Katherine wood has to say about Bitcoin uh what I'd like to talk about is Bitcoin um Bitcoin has had a magnificent run this year it got down below 4,000 in uh March during the Corona virus crisis and uh we know very well went through a lot of growing pains uh in that time and I think is uh better for it uh and I mean the entire ecosystem including the exchanges that at one time allowed a 100 times leverage um I don't know if that's still going on but uh those who were 100 times levered uh in March uh they they no longer have their businesses so I think governance is becoming better in this space which is all right let's stop right there um obviously yes Bitcoin did have a tremendous fall falling to 3800 in March when everything was falling right and yeah Bitcoin came out came out stronger afterwards Bitcoin the whole Community now what she's talking about exchanges with 100 100x leverage Unfortunately they still exist but she's she's trying to say that yeah people that took advantage of that 100x leverage they probably became bankrupted or liquidated right now when she was talking about governance I think um she didn't know what to say as for governance it's a open market yeah people get liquidated I guess those Bad actors just go away I guess that's what she's saying but in the blockchain world we usually think about governance as how you vote on you know decisions um that's that's going to be made for a blockchain so her definition governance and traditionally what crypto people think of government is a little bit different but I think we get what she's saying all to the all to the good uh we have written uh two white papers specifically Yasin Alandra our crypto analyst has and um one of them examines uh whether uh uh Institution are ready for Bitcoin uh and also ask the other question is Bitcoin ready for institutions and uh you know we think one of the reasons that uh Bitcoin is appreciating is uh institutions are dipping their toes in now they're doing this not just from an investment point of view but from a corporate cash point of view um some of you may know that micro strategy has converted all of its cash the cash on its balance sheet uh into Bitcoin uh square has done that uh with I believe it's 5% of its ass no 1% of its assets 2% of its cash uh and I believe we're going to see other companies doing that as just so you know this interview was done in November so this is before micro strategy raised $650 Million worth of debt and bought more Bitcoin right so I wonder what Katherine W would think about that um so this was before then but obviously micro strategy already made their decision to purchase 425 million at that time of Bitcoin also Square purchased $50 million with the Bitcoin but that's what she's referring to well um we know that PayPal uh also announced so it is uh following square and Robin Hood and allowing the purchase and sale of Bitcoin uh PayPal is a you know a much more conservative more oldw World company than either square or Robin Hood so again some some validation there seal of approval of sorts yeah real quick the xcoo PayPal came out not too long ago on CNBC and claimed that Bitcoin was a Ponzi and it's a fraud and that it's going to go to zero so when she says PayPal is a pretty conservative company I think that's true but that could also be the reason why uh that person I forgot his name is the xcoo not the current CEO but I think she's right it's PayPal is a lot more conservative than say Square which is a much newer company and same thing Robin Hood uh and uh the paper that Yasin wrote uh describes what would happen if institutions decide that a a 5% allocation to bitcoin is appropriate and the reason and and really that number is uh closer to the six perc range the way we wrote the paper but the reason 5% is important to me is I saw real estate um entering Pension funds uh in the 70s and they went to started with 1% migrated to 5% we saw Emerging Markets many uh Pension funds and institutional investors um moving into Emerging Markets as MCI developed that classification and uh moved from 1% to 5% and wherever they are now uh and we think the same thing is going to happen with Bitcoin and so I think that's the most important thing that I haven't heard anyone else talk about how Pension funds and institution investors early on in the 70s and 80s started buying real estate and also buying emergency Emerging Markets so I think you know back then I was not born yet but seems like that was a relatively new thing back in the 70s and ' 80s um Pension funds and institution investors they would put very little amount and then they would scale it up to 5% and they're making a comparison how that is exactly what's going on now with institutional investors you know dipping their toes into Bitcoin and scaling that up to 5% and other cryptocurrencies and if it does and if it's say just with Bitcoin and we've got that 5% allocation somewhere in the 4 to 6% range um that if if that were to happen and all institutions were going to do it of course that's not going to happen uh but some might add more uh so offsetting those who don't participate at all uh that would add somewhere uh uh between 400,000 and 500,000 to the Bitcoin price we're at 20,000 right now now that is not going to happen tomorrow tomorrow it's not going to happen for years uh but if we're on our way it is going to be a very pleasant journey I I do agree with her I think we're going to have a pleasant journey I think this journey just started as more and more institutions FAL in they're all looking at the Playbook of micro strategy Square now Mass Mutual Jeff googleheim right everyone is jumping in so can Bitcoin go up to $500,000 someday end of 2021 end of 2022 or maybe in a few more years the answer is yes yes it can so there you have it kathern wood and Ark invest is very bullish on Bitcoin in fact they bought Bitcoin very early on and Bitcoin actually sits in one of their funds so yes she's very bullish on bitcoin and her reasoning is very similar to Michael Sailors googleheim was different they were basically looking at scarcity versus gold more like the stock to flow model um but Catherine is looking at it from adoption institutional adoption right as more and more converts their cash flow right into Bitcoin that is go drive Bitcoin up in a big way and what's interesting is she said is Bitcoin ready for institutional investors that's an interesting way to look at it right because most people think about the opposite is uh is institutional investors ready for Bitcoin but no is Bitcoin ready for institutional investors and we are seeing effect that is why Bitcoin is going up so much and why it's nearing $30,000 and that's only the beginning so what do you guys think about Katherine Woods take why Bitcoin will go up to $500,000 possibly someday do you agree with that or don't you leave your thoughts in the comments below thanks for watch stay tuned for for my next video and while you're waiting check out these two others
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