저자: TomLee—CNBC출연 · 외국인
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비트코인은 2021년에도 2020년보다 더 좋은 성과를 낼 것이라는 전망이며, 구체적 수치 대신 '300% 이상' 수준의 상승을 시사한다. 핵심 주장: 2021년은 2017년과 비슷한 강세장이 될 것이며, 2020년에 비트코인이 300% 이상 상승했으므로 2021년엔 그보다 나은 성과를 기대한다는 취지. 근거: 달러 약세와 중앙은행 유동성 확대로 비트코인이 인플레이션 헤지 수단으로 부상, 밀레니얼 세대가 금보다 디지털 자산을 선호한다는 점. 리스크/조건: 2018년 4분기와 2020년 3월 주식 조정 때 비트코인이 절반 가까이 하락했는데, 과거에는 레버리지 수요와 리스크온 성향 때문에 주식과 동조화됐다고 설명. 주식 급락 시 비트코인도 하락할 수 있음을 간접 인정. 진행자(CryptosRUs) 반론: 비트코인 보유자는 아직 소수이며 기관투자자 유입이 늘면서 주식과의 상관성과 변동성이 줄어들 것이라고 주장. 3월 급락은 공황 매도로 금·은·주식도 함께 하락한 결과라고 설명. 기관 흐름: 마이크로스트래티지, 헤지펀드(Jefferies 등), 대형 보험사 등 기관이 비트코인을 매수하기 시작했고, 이들은 장기 보유 성향이 강해 개인 투자자 대비 패닉 셀이 적을 것이라는 논리. 고래(whale) 영향력은 줄었다는 주장, 개인 투자자는 약한 손으로 쉽게 이탈한다는 점도 언급. 출연자 전망: Tom Lee는 구체적 목표가를 제시하지 않았고, 진행자는 기관 유입으로 기존 패턴과 달라질 것이라는 낙관적 입장.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to crypto Z I Am George one of our favorite TV analyze the head strateg for fstat is back on cmc talking about Bitcoin Whenever There is a bll market for Bitcoin Rest ass Lee is cause some on cnbc so in this clip Tom Lee talks about where he thinks Bitcoin will go in 202 why he thinks Bitcoin is Rising at all was asked a curve question one that he was not prepared to answer at all and his answer was absolutely horrible so I want to talk about that I want to react to the whole clip and then conclude with my final thoughts Let's Get Started i for one and glad to see Timely back on cnbc in 2017 basically every single clip on cnbc about Bitcoin with Lee bri Kelly re is back on CC was asked about Bitcoin so let's Take a Look This is actually very very short he head of research for global advisors great to have you with us Thanks for having me your forecast Do you wish you you put out a higher number at this point how much Bitcoin ren such a short am of time know That Number Dav STR but I think in rounder numbers you know 2021 is gna be lot like 2017 UM Which means Bitcoin should do Even better in 2021 than It Did In 2020 so something Above 300% So real quick I want to talk about a few things number one We don't know what number That is it could have been 30 4000 something that looks very conservative now but it's funny that Tom Lee didn't want to be known for number no no was put on te so so Maybe I don't know his credibility was tn a little bit from all his predictions 2017 so He didn't want to give any specific numbers but he does believe that 2021 will be better than 2020 and in 2020 Bitcoin went up Above 300% So he's not actually giving any concr numbers but he does that be know January 300% pry darn right that means Bitcoin will be that me B we dollar bit I notice this the first time this you know as a disclaimer I don't know diser Lee own Bill It's Part Of itas You Know Bitcoin beaten the dollar weakening Bitcoin holds value Bitcoin goes up the more is this year you know we did see a lot of central bank liquidity the dollar was really strong surprisingly for much of the Year but weakness Now is make people how doone people i folks Who are in the Digit Generation Bitcoin is that diget That they so couple interesting things number one is We're All used to the USD as a denomination to compare Bitcoin to right So if the dollar is weakening Even if Bitcoin stays right It doesn't even appreciate by It more expensive because dollar is decreasing value This is part of inflation This is why a lot of people buying Bitcoin now because they fearful of inflation that the dollar is getting worthless right so they want Park money Somewhere Else so ACC you know for 2020 the dollar was actually holding pretty well but not anymore actually decreasing versus other currencies and you know traditionally has Generation millennials right They don't buy gold I don't want to buy gold i rather much buy something Digital something for the 21st Century Bitcoin because Digital better a point for to was heur And you could Tell he's just not ready for it and I really Disagree with What He Said So let me Fast Forward Have you here quick question here on the Bitcoin Okay the last two times the stock market has corrected meaningfully in q4 2018 then init cream it got cut in half on both instances and and so just help Us my I guess the viewers understand a little bit you know one of the the kind of Bull cases is that store of value also that uncorrelated nature to traditional Risk asset Why do you think we had those sorts of corrections at that point those crashes and what bars it from happening this time around after such a large rally in Bitcoin over the last months or Dan It's a good and you to mind Bitcoin holder Bas still tiny I don't there even more than million real people that own Bitcoin compared to nearly a billion people that own other financial instruments so it's tiny the penetration 1000 Where should be and we wrote about this but Bitcoin is acts like a Risk onet so in the years the s& performed the best best could Even b a of buers Us may be using leverage or Risk on or Risk appetite as a reason to add to Bitcoin So it should you know it should actually be falling stocks basically is not defending Bitcoin as a nonel asset He believes is asset that does correlate with the stock market so stock Mark goes up It Goes Up ites Down Down but his explanation is maybe it goes down faster because people are using leverage right That's really it he did not defend This At All he did not say anything about how going forward things will be different Well you know what Let's Look at this drop in March We Know Bitcoin fell dramatically in March right it Fell Down all the way to 3800 before doing a vap recovery you know what else Down in March besides stocks Yeah save gold which is supposed to be a haven right Guess what Look at this chart gold also Fell Down Like a Rock in March And that's because at that time everyone was panicking everyone was panicking and when everyone panics Guess what they liquidate everything so that includes Gold and Silver and Bitcoin and stocks right so you can't Really Hold that against Bitcoin because Even Fell Down dramatically Right but bco around is institutional investors previously Even early on in 2020 2019 20187 and Years no one no from the institution Bitcoin You goog is bit micro mutual strategy Mass a huge insurance company been around for 160 years jeffries hge fund skybridge fund All These players they didn't buy Bitcoin right so what Timely said about the million Plus people that own Bitcoin he talk about Retail investors and Retail investors tend to get weak at times strong hands turn into weak hands very quickly but for institutions That's not moreci they around the Block for longer So This Time around i These institution investors once they buy Bitcoin they hold it for a long they not be panic selling as much as Retail investors so going forward I do believe it's going to be different I think institutional investors will be the difference Maker So the stock market crashes Maybe Bitcoin goes down a little bit but I don't see the same type of dramatic drop that we saw in the past and another point I want to make is Remember the whales the whales have Kind of like Lost their power recently because of the institutional investors buying everything Wales before also added to the drop and you know all the dips and so forth right because they like to cause Fear and unc and doubt That's how they pick up Bitcoin for cheaper so that leverage point Tom Lee was saying some of it is unintentional some of It is intentional so that's why I think Bitcoin will start acting different in the future It is going to act like a non asset just like the latter half of 2020 so I do believe that the insane volatility the correlation to the stock market is be different forward for B Age with you not leave your thoughts innow thanks for while waiting for my next video check out TH two others
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