저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
시장이 과열(frothy) 상태라는 결론이다. 하워드 막스의 시장 사이클 체크리스트를 적용해 현재 시장을 점검한다. 최근 성과: 2020년 1월 이후 전체 시장 약 33% 상승, 적자 기업 중심 CCG 무수익 지수는 약 250% 상승해 시장이 강세다. 자산 가격: 2020년 이후 급등했고, 2010년대는 미국 주식 역사상 최고 수준의 10년이었다. 자산 가격이 매우 높다. 투자 심리: 인터넷에서는 '달 간다(to the moon)'식의 낙관론이 지배적이며, 특히 개인투자자들이 주식, 특히 옵션에 대거 몰리고 있어 시장이 과밀(crowded) 상태다. 금리·자본 여건: 금리는 낮고, 연준이 매달 국채 800억 달러, 모기지증권 400억 달러를 매입하는 등 완화적 상황이다. 자본이 풍부해 무수익 기업도 수십억 달러를 조달하고 있다. 신용 스프레드: 정크본드와 국채 금리차가 약 2.5%p로 역사적 저점 부근이다(2008년 약 20%p, 코로나 시기 약 10%p와 대비). 펀드 설정: 캐시 우드 등 신규 펀드가 매일 늘어나는 추세다. 투자 전략: 공격적 태도가 지배적이며, 이것이 옵션 거래 확대의 배경이다. 투자자 실수: 막스가 강조한 과도한 매수와 과도한 위험 감수가 나타나고 있다. 결론: 최근 며칠간 변동성이 있었지만 막스 체크리스트의 좌측(과열) 항목이 모두 해당되어 여전히 매우 과열된 시장이다. 이 영상은 개별 종목이나 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측을 담고 있지 않다.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome back to reflections on investing with the cornell capital group and today we're going to take a cue from a billionaire investor and oak tree founder howard marks and back in 2018 mr marks wrote a book on market cycles and he developed a checklist to determine whether the market was frothy or depressed and what i'd like to do is just take you through some of those items and the first is recent performance of the market and no better place to look for that than the ccg unprofitable index and it shows that in the period since january of 2020 the overall market's up about 33 percent but risky securities such as the unprofitables are up 250 percent so on our checklist the market is clearly strong the next item on the checklist is the level of asset prices well i just showed you that uh asset prices have run up since january of 2020.
and it turns out in the decade before the decade of the tens that was actually one of the best decades in history for u.s stocks so put the two together in asset prices are very high if you follow the internet chatter on investing you'll see that most people are talking about to the moon we've got to be in stocks now that's the way to go in other words in mr mark's checks list the outlook is very positive and as part of that positive outlook investors particularly retail investors have been pouring into the market not only into stocks generally but even more so into options and therefore the markets have become crowded what about interest rates well you have to be pretty much living under an investment rock to not know that interest rates are low every day we hear something about the fed and whether it's going to taper and interest rates are going to rise and so forth but now they're low and lenders the reason part of the reason they're low is lenders are anxious to lend corporations are borrowing at record levels at very low interest rates because we have eager lenders capital market conditions the fed has been buying 80 billion in uh government securities and 40 billion in mortgage securities every month that is clearly loose conditions as to capital it's plentiful again you can think of the cornell capital group unprofitable they've been able to raise billions and billions of dollars without making a penny yet so capital is plentiful and along with that terms are easy given that you might expected credit spreads the difference between the yield on a junk bond and a treasury bond is going to be low and if you look at the graph behind me you can see that it certainly is compared to the the credit crisis of 2008 when the spread got up to around 20 percent or even the crovid crisis when it hit about 10 percent today it's at two and a half near an all-time low credit spreads are narrow and i think the next item on his list really follows from what we've said so far investors are optimistic and eager to buy and asset owners are happy to hold in those conditions you might expect invest investment firms to be starting new funds one of the prime examples of that is kathy woods whose funds have been successful and she keeps adding new ones but that's typical funds are being added daily and as to investment strategy and outlook aggressiveness is the order of the day that's one of the reasons that option trading has become so uh prevalent well what type of mistakes do investors make in these markets mr marx talked of buying too much and taking too much risk and again when you look at the unprofitable index and you see that companies that haven't made a penny have risen 250 percent you know that investors were very anxious to take risks put it all together every single item checks on the left side of the list these despite the choppiness in the last week or two these are still very frothy markets according to mr mark's test checklist this has been reflections on investing with the cornell capital group you
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