저자: CornellCapitalGroup진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 2021년 10월 대비 현재는 시장 과열이 크게 식었으며 주식은 대체로 적정가 근처이나 여전히 신중한 태도를 유지한다. 2021년 10월에 CCG 비수익주 지수는 2020년 1월 이후 약 250% 상승한 반면 전체 시장은 약 33% 상승해 과열 신호였다. 현재 이 비수익주 지수는 폭락해 S&P500을 크게 하회하며 수익률이 상당히 마이너스인 경우도 많아 최근 성과는 약하다. 자산가격은 당시보다 크게 낮아졌고, 교수 Damodaran 방식의 가치평가로는 시장이 대략 적정가치 수준으로 보인다. 다만 가격은 더 이상 높지 않지만 낮다고 보기도 어렵다. 시장 전망과 심리는 2021년 10월의 매우 긍정적 분위기에서 부정적으로 바뀌었고, 투자자들은 주식을 매수하기보다 불안해하며 관망하는 쪽이다. 금리 측면에서는 당시 저금리가 과열의 핵심 요인이었으나 현재는 금리가 크게 올라 대출 조건이 긴축적이며, 차입자들이 더 소극적이 되었다. 자본시장 여건도 당시 풍부하고 느슨했으나 지금은 긴축적이고 신용 스프레드는 2008년 위기 때보다는 작지만 당시보다 크게 벌어졌다. 투자 심리 측면에서 당시 투자자들은 주식 보유에 적극적이었으나 지금은 긴장 상태이며, 신규 펀드 결성도 당시와 달리 최상위 운용사만 자금 조달이 가능하다고 본다. 투자 태도도 과거의 공격성에서 신중함과 규율로 바뀌었다. 위험 감수 측면에서 과거에는 과도한 위험을 감수했으나 현재는 이전보다 훨씬 줄어든 상태다. 과거 우려였던 과잉 매수도 현재는 매수가 부족하거나 일부 대형주가 저평가되었을 가능성으로 언급된다. 체크리스트 전반을 비교하면 2021년에는 모든 항목이 긍정적이었으나 현재는 상황이 극적으로 변했다. 다만 Howard Marks 말처럼 시장은 공정가격에 오래 머물지 않고 과대 또는 과소평가 사이를 오가며, 과소평가로의 전환 가능성도 배제할 수 없다. 결론적으로 CCG는 주식이 대략 적정가격에 가깝다고 보면서도 여전히 매우 신중한 입장을 유지한다.
다듬은 글
okay hello and welcome back to Reflections on investing with the Cornell Capital group and too often investing pundits make forecasts do analyzes and then time moves on and they forget about them and they make more forecasts and do more analyzes and never go back to analyze what they said a year or so ago well we thought we'd break that pattern in October of 2021 we did a Reflections on the Howard marks Market checklist from his book on Market cycles and here's what we said put it all together every single item checks on the left side of the list despite the choppiness in the last week or two these are still very frothy markets according to Mr Mark's test not checklist well today we've got that checklist back we thought we would compare what we believed were the frothy markets then with the conditions now so here on my iPad I have the same checklist and let's just go down it the first item is recent performance in 2021 that was very strong in fact we said and no better place to look for that than the ccg unprofitable index and it shows that in the period since January of 2020 the overall Market's up about 33 percent but risky Securities such as the unprofitables are up 250 percent so on our checklist the market is clearly strong today the situation is dramatically different the ccg unprofitables that had far outperformed the S P 500 through last October have now crashed and over the full period their return is significantly less than the S P 500 and in many cases significantly negative so recent performance is now weak asset prices well they're a lot lower than they were but we felt that was frothy a couple weeks ago we did a Reflections on valuing the market using Professor oswat the motors approach and we thought the market looked about fairly valued by that measure so let's put a little line here certainly no longer High but maybe not low Stock Market Outlook well that was very positive in October of 2021 we didn't think it should be because the markets were so frothy but frothy markets tend to go along with good settlement sentiment now the sentiment has definitely changed I would say yes it's probably negative not as negative as it was positive back then but certainly negative back then we said the markets were crowded Mr Mark says uh on on the other side they're starved for attention that's probably too strong I'll put a line there perhaps the biggest change has been interest rates back in October of 2021 we stressed that low interest rates were a big part of the frothy Market well today interest rates have changed dramatically so if we go back and look at what we said then what about interest rates well you have to be pretty much living under an investment Rock to not know that interest rates are low every day we hear something about the fed and whether it's going to taper and interest rates are going to rise and so forth but now they're low you can see the difference rates are in relative terms particularly High lenders they were eager than reticent may be too strong now but they're by no means as anxious to land and with higher well I should be careful with that it takes two to make a lending transaction the borrower and the lender the lenders are willing to lend now if they can get a high enough interest rate but with the high interest rates the borrowers become more reticent so let's put a line there Capital market conditions were loose very loose back then the Fed was pouring uh liquidity into the economy the FED has totally changed its tune in capital market conditions are tight Capital was plentiful then it says scarce now it's not scarce but the price has gone up so I'll put a line there terms were easy then they're much more restrictive now so I'll Circle that one credit spreads were narrow then they're much wider now as evidenced by so I'm gonna put wide with that one though not as wide as they were in the crash of 2008.
investors are certainly more pessimistic now and where they were eager to buy back in October this says uninterested in buying I would say that's too strong but skeptical about buying in uh October they were happy to hold stocks they aren't rushing toward the exits now but they're very nervous so I'll put a line there back then new funds were starting all the time spax were the hot ticket now this says only the best can raise money that's probably too strong so I'll put a line there back then the popular quality was aggressiveness stocks are going to the moon now there's a lot more caution and discipline so I'll Circle that one the main concern back then was buying too much that is from our point of view were people buying too much are they now buying too little or are things like Google and Facebook actually underpriced well maybe so I'll put a line there back then they were taking too much risk now we think well I wouldn't say they're taking too little but certainly a lot less so if we compare the whole checklist back then everything was positive and we said the markets were very frothy and warned about a potential downturn now the situation has changed dramatically our demodorant analysis said the market was approximately properly priced but there's an awful lot of circles on the Howard marks checklist and as Mr Mark says markets don't spend a lot of time being fair they seem to spend more time being overpriced or underpriced and a swing to underpricing is something that cannot be ruled out so at the Cornell Capital group right now while we think stocks are close to fairly priced we are still being very cautious this has been Reflections on investing thanks for joining us
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