저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션은 해결이 어렵고 더 악화될 것이며, 중앙은행은 결국 항복해 금리를 올리지 못하고 양적완화로 돌아설 것이라는 비관론. 인플레이션 해결 불가론: 정치적으로 수용 가능한 해법이 없고, 중앙은행은 2% 목표 달성 의지를 보이지만 실제로는 2%에 도달하기 전에 20% 인플레이션을 먼저 볼 것이라고 주장. 영국 중앙은행 사례: 불과 1~2주 전 긴축 의지를 보였으나 금융위기 우려 후 양적긴축에서 무제한 양적완화로 전환, 금리 인상을 막았다고 비판. 재정적자와 인플레이션: 정부 지출이 인플레이션의 원천이며 적자를 중앙은행이 화폐 발행으로 메우고 있다고 설명. 영국은 감세로 인플레이션 세금을 더 늘렸다고 지적. 금리 인상의 딜레마: 금리를 올리면 금융위기가 불가피하며, 2008년 위기도 금리 정상화 과정의 결과였다고 주장. 현재 부채가 2008년보다 훨씬 많아 금리 상승 시 자산가격 하락과 상환 불능이 발생한다고 봄. 자산가격과 금리: 금리와 주식·부동산 가격은 시소 관계이며 금리 상승 시 자산가격 하락 예상. 2021년 미국 적자기업 상장이 기록적이었으나 제로금리 환경에서만 유지 가능하다고 주장. 실질금리 필요성: 연방기금금리 약 3.25~3.5%, 인플레이션 8.25%로 실질금리 약 -5%. 1981년 볼커 당시 단기금리 21%처럼 실질금리가 플러스가 되어야 저축을 유도해 인플레이션을 잡을 수 있다고 주장. 재정 및 자금조달: 미국 연 2조 달러 적자를 민간·해외 중앙은행이 소화할 수 없어 결국 연준이 화폐를 찍을 수밖에 없고, 정부 지출 삭감도 이뤄지지 않고 있다고 비판. 인플레이션감축법도 지출 확대라고 지적. 결론적 전망: 인플레이션이 문제 자체가 되어 더 이상 치료제가 없으며, 현재 달러 강세와 채권시장 안정은 연준에 대한 신뢰 덕분이지만 그 신뢰는 이전 실패 이력(2007년 서브프라임 'contained' 발언)으로 볼 때 취약하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
so now inflation is a huge problem see inflation was the government's solution to the problem until inflation has now become the problem so what is the solution to the inflation problem there is none at least none that is politically acceptable and so inflation is going to get much worse forget about what these Central bankers and politicians are saying about their commitment to fight inflation how they're Resolute and how they're determined no matter what to bring the inflation rate back down to two percent that's never going to happen we're going to see 20 inflation before we see two percent inflation and this pre-ten war against inflation is going to come to an end soon and the central banks are going to surrender and inflation is going to win look we've already seen the First Central Bank capitulate and waive the right weight flag and that was the bank of England the bank of England a week or two ago was every bit as committed to fighting inflation as the Fed until the inflation fight threatened a financial crisis and then they cowered out turned around and they're back to quantitative easing they went from quantitative tightening to open-ended quantitative easing in fact the bank of England said we're going to print as many pounds as we have to we're going to keep on buying guilts we're not going to let interest rates go up they have to let interest rates go up if you want to fight inflation you got to let interest rates go up but the other thing you have to do to fight inflation is to make government spending go down because government spending is the source of that inflation governments are running deficits and the central banks are monetizing those deficits by creating inflation governments are actually funding themselves through inflation when you have a budget deficit you're not getting government for free every nickel that the government spends has to be paid for by the citizens and if they don't pay for it with a tax then how are they paying for it through inflation so when prices go up that's the tax that you're paying for all these government programs and so if the government wants to get rid of inflation well then it has to get rid of those programs or it has to raise taxes to finance those programs and that's not happening that's not happening anywhere nowhere in the world despite all these governments that claim they want to fight inflation no government is actually doing it nobody is cutting spending in fact in the UK they cut taxes well when you cut taxes you increase the inflation tax so the British were claiming that they wanted to fight inflation while at the same time creating even more of it that is the problem but the same thing is going to happen to the Federal Reserve in the United States you cannot raise interest rates without creating a financial crisis the the financial crisis we had in 2008 was a result of a normalization of interest rates it wasn't simply a subprime problem the reason subprime was the problem was because it was debt people borrowed money and they couldn't pay it back why were they able to borrow the money because it was cheap the FED lowered interest rates to one percent they created a housing bubble housing prices went up people borrowed money against those inflated property values they borrowed money with artificially low interest rates and when interest rates went up property prices went down people didn't want to pay their mortgages you get a financial crisis because now the banks didn't get their money back they loaned all this money out they didn't get it back that was why we had a crisis well today we have much more debt than we had in 2008 we had zero percent interest rates for almost 10 years think about all the debt that was taken on during those 10 years by not only the government corporations private citizens do you think they can repay that debt when rates normalize of course not and what happens when rates go up asset prices come down it's like the other side of a seesaw the lower interest rates are the more expensive stocks are the more expensive real estate is but as interest rates go up those prices come down because it's all a function of interest rates so if I borrowed a bunch of money to buy a house and now the house goes down I have no equity and my mortgage payments are up I'm mailing in the Keys but you have all these companies in America that have been losing money in fact in 2021 it was a record year in America for money losing companies going public now how do all these money losing companies stay in business because the company's supposed to generate a profit to stay in business how do you lose a bunch of money and still stay in business how do you pay your employees how do you pay your rent and how do you do anything well the companies were selling stock you're the public they were raising money by selling stock and a lot of companies were borrowing money to pay their expenses taking on debt but it was all great when rates were at zero and people were willing to buy these overpriced stocks when rates were at zero they're not willing to do it when rates are at four percent and in order to fight inflation they got to go much higher than four percent despite the rate increases federal funds rate in the United States right now is about three and a quarter to three and a half percent inflation even the way the government measures it is eight and a quarter percent that's negative five percent real interest rates you're not going to fight inflation with negative five percent rates you're going to create more inflation the only way that you can fight inflation with higher interest rates is if the interest rate is higher than the inflation rate and it can't just be a little bit higher it's got to be meaningfully higher in 1981 when Paul volcker raised interest rates or allowed interest rates to go up short-term rates went to 21 percent the highest inflation got was 13 and a half so that's what it took people had real interest rates the reason you need that is because you've got to stop people from spending money that's what's the demand it's spending you've got to get people to stop spending and start saving because that accomplishes two things it reduces demand but it increases Supply how does it increase Supply well when you spend money I mean when you save money and you don't spend it that money can Finance capital investment that will lead to more production of goods and so you increase the supply of goods while decreasing demand for goods prices could come down or stop going up that's what you need to do now if interest rates are negative that is not going to encourage anybody to save if net rates are negative five percent you're gonna lose five percent a year on any money you save why the hell would you save you wouldn't you're gonna spend your money as quickly as you get it you're not going to save it and lose five percent a year now if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates up to let's say 10 or 15 then you might save your money hell I could put my money in the bank and earn 15 I'm not going to spend it even if inflation is eight percent I'm still seven percent ahead I'm gonna save my money I'm gonna earn all that interest I'm gonna spend my money in the future because then I'm going to be able to spend the interest that I earned on my money that's what the Federal Reserve needs to do but they're not doing that also we are running two trillion dollar a year deficits in the United States where's the money coming from right it's coming from the Federal Reserve or it was and it there's no other source because if the Federal Reserve isn't going to print all that money then the private sector is going to have to buy all those treasuries but the private sector doesn't want those treasuries foreign central banks don't want those treasuries they want they need to sell the treasures they've already got they don't need to buy anymore there is no way to finance these deficits so the government has to cut spending but they haven't cut any spending in fact if you look at the inflation reduction act that was a spending bill they increased spending to fight inflation how are you supposed to do that it's the spending that is the source of the inflation because the spending is being monetized by the central bank so instead of fighting inflation they created additional inflation instead of putting out the fire they poured gasoline on the fire and just pretended that they were going to put it out but everything we're doing we just were forgiving student loans in fact we told people that have student loans you don't have to pay those loans just go out and spend the money on other stuff buy more Goods buy more services push the prices even higher you see this the Federal Reserve and other central banks are at an inflection point they're really in a situation where they're between a rock and a hard place and they're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't because for years they were able to Kick the Can down the road by creating inflation and sweeping the problem under the rug but now that inflation has become the problem they can't solve the inflation Problem by creating more inflation because the solution to every problem has been inflation the economy's weak print money lower interest rates companies are failing let's bail them out how do we pay for that print money create inflation so inflation has been kind of the one-trick pony it's been a cure-all whatever ails us just inflation is going to be the Cure well now that inflation is the disease where's the Cure there is none any more stimulus and we end up with an overdose and that is where we are right now and what's keeping everything going the reason that we haven't already seen a collapse in the bond market or a collapse in the Valley of the US dollar the reason we've had a rally in the dollar is because the world is still or still has faith in the Federal Reserve the world still believes that the Federal Reserve is serious about bringing inflation back down to two percent and that it has the ability to bring inflation back down but it doesn't remember it was the Federal Reserve back in 2008.
or 2007 that said not to worry about the subprime market it was contained of course we saw how contained that was but he
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