Slowing Fed policy because of Ukraine-Russia war would be big mistakeJeremy Siegel: Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 연준이 우크라이나-러시아 전쟁을 이유로 금리 인상 속도를 늦추는 것은 큰 정책 실수이며, 연준은 인플레이션을 잡기 위해 더 공격적으로 긴축해야 한다는 주장. 금리 인상 속도 관련: 1970년대 유가 급등 시 아서 번스 연준 의장이 경기 위축을 이유로 통화를 늘려 실패한 사례를 들어, 지금도 같은 실수를 반복하면 안 된다고 주장. Siegel은 연준이 3월에 25bp를 인상하더라도 이후 50bp 인상이 필요하다고 봄. 실망감을 표명하며 이번 회의에서 50bp 인상이 맞다고 주장. 금리 전망 관련: 시장이 예상하는 5.5~6% 수준이 아니라 그 이상까지 금리 인상이 필요하다고 언급. 세인트루이스 연은 총재 제임스 불러드와의 인터뷰를 인용해, 7월 기준금리 1% 이상, 연말 2% 이상 가능성을 언급. 연준 대응 관련: 파월 의장이 대차대조표(balance sheet) 축소 계획을 구체적으로 세우지 않은 점에 실망. 파월은 좋은 소통자이나 연준이 물가 전망을 크게 잘못 예측했다고 비판. 2021년 연준의 인플레이션 전망이 실제보다 크게 낮았다고 지적하며 '일시적 인플레이션' 입장을 비판. 시장 반응: 파월이 더 빨리 움직일 필요가 있다고 언급했을 때 2년물 금리가 18bp 상승한 점을 언급하며 시장이 이를 반영했다고 평가. 출연자 전망: 연준이 뒤늦게 따라잡아야 하며, 달러 방어를 위해 '이를 악물고(bite the bullet)' 긴축해야 한다고 주장. 리스크: 긴축을 늦추면 인플레이션이 장기화되고 달러 신뢰가 훼손될 수 있다는 우려. 대상 자산 관련 직접 종목 언급 없음.

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01. joining us right now is jeremy siegel who is professor of finance at u penn's wharton school of business and jeremy i just want to get your thoughts based on what we were just talking about with steve with rick before that i mean the fed's signaling yesterday jay pal saying that it's going to be 25 basis points obviously they're watching to see what happens in ukraine and with russia to see whether they should be taking this more slowly how does that play into your thesis which is that the fed's already been behind and that inflation is going to be stronger than a lot anticipate be there longer than a lot of people anticipate and require the fed to do even more yeah and and i i actually think it would be a big policy mistake to slow down because of the ukraine i mean uh we had this situation in the 70s with oil prices going up uh and arthur burns was chairman of the fed and he decided also well the economy's contracting let's put more money into the system and that proved to be a huge policy error uh unfortunately you've got to take the medicine and uh i i i'm very disappointed i think the fed should go 50 basis point the first time uh in march he did open the possibility there would be more i i actually think the you know the five and a half to six percent steve mentioned that uh hikes that they're gonna have they're gonna have to do much more than that and uh uh you know i'm actually disappointed that uh that chairman powell did not look at the history saying that this is not a time for us to slow down and um i think he will come to that uh realization i was also disappointed by the way that he said that you know we really didn't formulate a plan for the uh uh draining off the the balance sheet um and and that disappointed me too because that is also very important i mean i spent an hour actually interviewing chairman uh a president uh fed president james board from saint louis last friday and um he said we've got to be at least at one percent in in july and implied we got to be probably at 2 or more by the end of the year although i'm willing to look at what that situation actually is he's on the committee he's going to he's a hawk he could dissent i don't think he will the first time he said i'm willing to give 25 bases points the first time but he said we're going to have to do 50 basis points after that and i think he's he's perfectly right hey jeremy um jay pal is no arthur burns i mean he has a much better grasp of the markets a much better understanding and i have to say listening to him yesterday um i i like listening to him i feel like he's in command and control he gets these things he's also pretty smart about how he says things politically may not be ready to shake the markets and say we're going to do this pretty steadfast with all of these rate hikes coming through i didn't get the sense listening to him that they are going to go that much slower i it to me kind of reading through and listening to hours of that testimony yesterday it sounded to me like yeah um he he knows that this is an issue he knows that they need to be moving on this and he's not going to say anything to shake the markets up right now but that was just my interpretation how about how about yours well certainly we saw when the two year rate went up 18 basis point when he opened up the fact that we're going to have to go faster i think that the the market said that but we also have to admit becky that the fed has been terribly wrong over the last year i mean all this temporary inflation look at their projections for inflation that they did last year so way below uh what actually happened all the way to december uh uh you know uh and and listen j powell is a very very good man he's a good communicator but but the fed has been very wrong and and they're going to have to to catch up and they're have to and and really have to admit by we got to bite the bullet here we got to defend the dollar here we got to defend the dollar