저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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결론: 지금은 바닥보다 천장에 가깝다는 신호가 더 많지만, 단기적으로 반등 가능성도 열려 있다. [시장 상황] 원인은 연준 긴축 우려, 치솟는 인플레이션, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 공포다. 다우 598포인트, S&P500 1.55%, 나스닥 1.59% 급락. 공포가 아니라 우울(gloom)에 의한 매도라고 진단. [금리·안전자산] 인플레이션이면 금리가 올라야 하는데 전쟁 공포로 안전자산 쏠림이 일어나 금리가 급락했다고 설명. [유가] 유가가 100달러를 넘어 수요 파괴와 경기침체를 유발할 수 있다고 봄. 1973년 석유파동을 예로 듦. [낙관 시나리오] 연준이 한 번 인상 후 관망하면 불확실성이 해소될 수 있고, 수요 파괴로 공급망 압력과 물가가 낮아져 연준 부담이 줄 수 있다. 이후 대기 자금이 주식으로 유입되는 상승 가능성 언급. [비관 시나리오] 연준이 자동적·신속한 인상을 예고하면 시장이 크게 맞을 수 있고, 핵 사용 시 주식시장 붕괴 가능성 언급. [전략] 현금을 보유하며 하락장에서 천천히 분할 매수 권고. 아직 매수는 이르다고 봄. [마이크로소프트] 장기 보유 종목이나 현재 약간 비싸다고 판단. 295달러에서 280달러까지 조정 가능성 언급. [팔란티어] 1200달러대 주가는 지나치게 높다고 보며 경쟁사 팔로알토·크라우드스트라이크보다 못하다고 평가. [기타] 도미노피자 실적 미스 및 CEO 교체 언급. 세일즈포스 실적 관심. 석유·천연가스 주목. 코타라(Cotara) 매수 긍정 언급. [결론] 주식은 최근 하락 추세이며 바닥이라기보다 천장에 더 가까울 수 있다는 시각.
다듬은 글
a and this money my job is not just to entertain but to teach educate put this one a column of doom heads to encircle and snuff out a city filled with children schools university hospitals and people want to live in a democratic society a fed chief heads to capitol hill to talk about lowering the boom on economy that's become too hot to handle rampant inflation oil soaring off the charts this combination of doom and boom naturally produces gloom and that's what drove today's action dow plummeting 598 points sp plunging 1.55 nasdaq tumbling 1.59 i want to stress that wall street's acting out of gloom not panic just a legitimate sense that things have gotten very off track and aren't going to get back on track anytime soon i say hold on why don't we step back for a moment and see what happens rather than taking action what's every headline about someone not selling phones or sneakers or credit cards to russia i get that attitude it's only natural as we're waiting for fed chief jay powell to explain patiently how the war in europe won't slow down our economy enough to break inflation the horrors in ukraine make for a level of uncertainty that we haven't seen in ages causing interest rates to plummet when normally they would be soaring if anything the skyrocketing price of oil now north of 100 thanks to the russian invasion means we could be in a situation where higher gasoline actually creates its own demand destruction having reached a level where people simply don't drive as much this combination of negatives gives us a very confusing moment where inflation should be driving interest rates higher but instead rates have plummeted because the events of ukraine are so darn frightening that it's caused a fanatical flight to quality the citizens of give want to justifiably be uh hiding in the subway the dentists of wall street they want to hide in government bonds everybody's hiding is there any way out of this situation other than lower stock prices i think that is the question of the moment the good answer is just to say absolutely not no they have to fall the only way for stocks to bottom here is if they keep going lower and reach a point where there are no more sellers the logic we're in a bear market and as long as you're in a bear market investors will sell until they run out of firepower and only brain-dead bulls will stick around for the carnage i certainly understand that kind of negativity i've seen it a lot in my career if you bought stocks today you're buying ahead of a two-day session fed speak that will also drive stocks lower you're buying ahead of a 40 mile rushing column that's ready to late to lay hiv to waste right although fortunately the russians seem to be running out of fuel put it all together it does make for an incredibly ugly moment no one is disputing that but i'm really hitting his days yes i do like to play devil's advocate and tell you what i think could go right not wrong i'll let everyone else do that and they do it very well first domestically it's entirely possible that j-pal goes before congress it says he doesn't like how inflation is going and he has to start the process of raising rates in order to tamp down skyrocketing prices but he's a measure fella and he may take a measured approach telling us that he'll hike once then wait and see if he needs to do more powell can save 50 basis points or 25 what matters is once he says he's going to do it that issue's done you can stick off work in it it will take the uncertainty off the table if powell says the rate hikes will be automatic and swift then the market will absolutely get hammered and that's what today's action was forecasting they think he's going to revert to the way he was when he first started i don't see him going there second it's absolutely true that there is a column of destruction headed to ukraine's capital the russians showed you both in syria and chesnaiah that they are their army is willing to take out anything and anyone any civilians it doesn't even matter if the civilians are on their own side although much smaller operations gets much weaker targets it will be horrific when that column arrives and presumably in circles give but the west seems to be out of financial bullets that can restrain the russians and our stock market is going to trade based on atrocities that said a lot of us assume this war would be over in a couple of days the ukrainians have included themselves much better than anyone expected in the end they're still outmanned and outgunned but the idea of russian invincibility has been shattered at this point we don't know what kind of weapons ukrainians have more more obviously coming from the west either the russians will be repelled or ukraine falls and then russia has to occupy a hostile nation those are not good outcomes for the russian army no matter what the west will keep supplying arms no matter what russian soldiers will keep dying it's a terrible situation but it doesn't have much bearing on the u.s stock market unless putin truly loses his mind and starts deploying tactical nuclear weapons out of frustration that is the biggest fear right now among many people and that this work does go nuclear if putin hits the red button our stock market will collapse that will be the least of your worries in a world war iii scenario if the battle remains just that without nuclear weapons then we have to presume that oil can keep going up and that will have inevitable damage demand destruction but of course lead to a lot of number cutting but it can create a recession all by itself as we saw during the oil embargo of 73 lousy way to get the fed off her backs but it'll work now let me give you one other way out remember all that cash i always tell you to keep on the sidelines remember when we used to say that if stocks dropped a lot they might be interesting and that a combination of buybacks dividends superior earnings can transcend the chaos i'm not talking about buying the dip by the way a dip is not down 30 which is 30 so many stocks are i actually think that the money can come back from the sidelines i think the sellers will stop with the risk with the risk right right risk reward they will stop the one that says hey once again you make nothing in bonds especially after this run and you make something in stocks plus the demand destruction from high oil prices reduces supply chain lows for everything else making the fed's job easier remember we're not talking about earnings we're just making the fed's job easier does that sound too rosy to you you know it's actually maybe the most likely outcome at a certain time and place it means there are buyers on the sidelines who will start putting their money to work not because they're buying dips but because there's no other way to get a return again of course to get everything working you need putin to come to a census either because it's generals or probably more important the chinese tell them to cool it and you need oil to come down the supply chain is used to diminish grains to reverse and the automakers to get their semiconductors while mortgage rates drop so homes are more affordable and that's happening right now in that scenario it's hard to see how stocks don't go up so when can that happen any day we just don't know which one that's why it's right to have some cash but it's worked slowly in a disciplined fashion on the way down as we attempt to do with my chapel trust which i urge you to follow by joining the cmuc investing club many bulletins today not a lot of buys still too early then you'll catch the proverbial bottom as opportunity at last triumphs over fear don't know when we just don't know when but the bottom line we do know you're a fool if you think that things are only just now getting bad for the stock market and can only get much worse it ain't a dip people it's been going down since november thanks to this endless sell-off but you know what maybe we're a lot closer to a bottom than a top bob in new york bob hey jim uh first and foremost our prayers for the people of ukraine in their fight for freedom jim i spoke to you about a year and a half ago and i asked you if you considered microsoft in the same category as apple own it don't trade it at the time you said it was so i have a two-part question number one do you still feel the same today in the current environment and has microsoft been punished more than it should have been in this current environment well microsoft's much higher price journey is multiple than apple i haven't think microsoft this is not the level look my channel shows we've owned it forever i've been true to my mantra but that said i mean i think the stock 295 it could easily retreat to uh i don't know to 280 and people wouldn't maybe there they jump on it but i happen to think that microsoft's a very good stock and a very good company that is happen to be just a little too expensive let's go to for the moment or else i'd sell it for the moment adam and maryland adam professor kramer i hope you're having a great day well you know when what's happening in ukraine very hard to have a great day i really appreciate it i'd like to be upbeat uh and i don't want to just sit here and say i hate a certain group of people because that doesn't get us anywhere but i find it a very sad time go ahead i'm sorry all right well i'm looking at palantir and from their financials looks like they have a strategy of investing startups that will part by palindromes products my question is is this a sustainable growth model or a potential red flag i really despise their conference call i thought they were very glib they did talk about churning some uh civilian you're getting a lot of civilian business uh which is what they want but i mean how can you buy the i mean look at this stock we're at uh 1200 in other words you just multiply you did a reverse whatever split then what you would see is people would be buying palo alto net i think the attraction of pound here is this ridiculous 12 handle and i wish it weren't like that because it is nowhere near as good as palo alto or crowdstrike for that matter even z scaling look i think we may be a little closer to the bottom of this market this is not a dip people aren't no one's urging people to buy a dip this is a slaughter well okay there's a real slower going on so let me qualify that this is a very big decline on mad money tonight domino's reported earnings missed this morning and a major change at the top of the pizza chain so i'm going one-on-one with the company's top brass to break down the numbers then salesforce releases fourth quarter and that that thing is just soaring and oil and natural gas are in focus and the prices for ukraine and i think that maybe you should be thinking about owning the stock of kotara i know i am for my charitable trust we've got the ceo
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