저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 세일즈포스는 성장·마진 대비 역대급으로 과매도 상태이며, 잉여현금흐름 매력을 근거로 향후 6~9개월 매수 기회라는 낙관론. 실적·펀더멘털: 구독·빌링 성장이 다음 성장 단계 진입을 보여주며, 클라우드 환경에서 성장이 재가속된다는 평가. 슬랙(Slack) 협업 기능이 추가 성장 동력이 될 것으로 전망. 밸류에이션: 포워드 기준 잉여현금흐름 수익률 약 3%로 과거 대비 높아 매력적이라고 평가. 2023년 1분기 매출 가이던스는 전년 대비 약 24% 성장으로 두 자릿수 성장과 실적 상향이 이어지는 중. 주가 부담 요인: 슬랙 인수가 주가의 주요 짐(overhang)으로 작용. 약 280억 달러에 인수했으나 시장이 그 두 배 가치(약 50~60달러 주당 부담)를 디스카운트하고 있다고 주장. 마이크로소프트와의 경쟁 우려, 비용 지출에 따른 마진 훼손 우려도 언급. 거시·섹터: 금리 인상과 소프트웨어 섹터 재평가로 일부 고밸류 종목은 30~60% 하락. 성장 대비 멀티플은 최근 10년 내 저점 수준이라고 진단. 전략: 세일즈포스, 마이크로소프트 등 소프트웨어와 사이버보안(팔로알토, 체크포인트, 포티넷) 종목을 잉여현금흐름 기준으로 보유하는 접근을 제시. 단기 변동성은 크지만 과매도된 종목 중심 매수 전략 권고. 출연자 전망: 세일즈포스 주가는 향후 6~9개월 상승 가능성이 크다는 낙관적 입장.
다듬은 글
yeah this is a shot in the arm for the bulls and obviously this has been an uphill battle i think an oversold stock i think if you look at subscriptions billings growth it really shows that i think they're hitting their next level of growth in this cloud environment i think a lot of it's also going to be slack driven in terms of the collaboration i just think this is as oversold as i've seen salesforce relative to the growth and margins in probably about four to five years you know i look at things like you know salesforce's free cash flow yield that looks like up around three percent on a forward basis obviously higher than it's been at times uh over the past couple of years how does that you know reflect upon the broader sort of software universe and what it's saying about either investors appetite to pay up for these stocks and also you know the fundamentals of business spending i think right now it's a quagmire for investors in tech because some of the free cash flow stories that they're able to sort of navigate better than others on microsoft and apple and some others but if you can software you know when you look at salesforce here the free cash flow i think is just massively attractive and i think the slack deal loan is probably 50 to 60 dollar overhang on the stock which is our opinion we're gonna look out next six to nine months i think this is one massive opportunity to own it and they're showing fundamentals back up the story what what is holding back the stock dan because i mean if their their their expectation here for the first quarter 2023 revenue guidance is 24 growth so they're they're continuing to post the double-digit growth growth beat and raise so what is the overhang here is it still the digestion of some of these big deals i think the slack deal has been a clear overhang i mean that's something investors didn't want them to see especially buying at the top and then i think there's worries about microsoft you know competitively speaking in terms of defending their turf you know can they accelerate growth and what happens to the margin story because that's ultimately the fear they continue to spend money and ultimately that margin story doesn't you know really morph as we go in 2023 2024 but ben you have to have the golden touch and this is one anytime you bet against him and and salesforce it's been the wrong move and that's why i think given the valuation here risk reward of you as an eye popper i mean you just want to get at that that idea that slack in itself and the fact that the company paid up for it is you know responsible for you know 50 i mean a 20 uh overhang on the stock right 56 i mean they only paid 28 billion for slack you're saying the market's penalizing twice the value paid for slack in in salesforce's valuation oh i view it as one of the more anomalous overhangs relative to what they've paid and that's a lot of investors it's one they've sort of put this to the side because the slack deal right now even if you discount and assume that's a zero this is a meme that you buy in potential table pound they're giving their free cash for a story and i think it's one some will argue with tainted the pure cloud some will also argue that as you go into the next year or two a lot more competition especially when you look at some of the next-gen plays going after salesforce but if you look from an install based perspective a free cash flow evaluation you look at some of these numbers you feel much better today owning salesforce than you did 24 hours ago i think a lot better than feared but many yelling fire in a crowded theater on this name but yeah you also have the macro concern stan and this idea of higher interest rates from the fed and the whole revaluation of the entire tech sector software names in in particular so do you rethink what what a fair value for salesforce should be and and where should that be relative to some of its peers yeah and i think we've already seen a lot of that come down 30 40 percent across offers some of the high multiple names down 50 or 60.
if i look at multiples based on growth we're almost short toward trap over the last 10 years when you factor in growth i've used software as a popular strength cyber security as well it's obviously a white knuckle environment we want to be owning names like sales force microsoft cyber security names like pow out or even checkpoint on the free cash flow as well as fortinet i think that's how you navigate this market a lot of oversold disconnected name salesforce being one of them
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