저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 2022년 2월 28일 기준 시장 저점이 올해 상반기 안에 확정될 가능성이 크다고 봤다. 리오프닝 강세: 뉴욕시 백신 의무 해제 등으로 리오프닝 기대가 커지며 리오프닝 관련주에 긍정적이라고 봤다. 투자자들이 리오프닝 지속성에 대해 확신이 낮다고 평가했다. 연준 전망: 시장이 매파적이던 연준이 25bp 수준으로 완만하게 비둘기파적으로 전환할 것이라 봤다. 금리 기대 하락이 시장 안정의 주요 이유라고 설명. 주식 밸류에이션: 10년물 금리 약 2% 수준에서도 주식 PER 확장이 지속될 수 있으며, S&P 선행 PER 20배 이하 수준의 주식이 매력적이라고 평가. 'TINA'(대안 없음) 논리 제시. 에너지: 유가 및 에너지 섹터 강세를 언급했으나 구체 가격 목표는 제시되지 않음. 진행자는 이에 대해 시장 상승의 역풍이 될 수 있다고 의문을 제기. 비트코인: 우크라이나 사태 이후 암호화폐 거래량 급증과 대체 결제 수요를 근거로 비트코인 및 비트코인 관련 주식(채굴기업 등)에 긍정적 시각. 다만 파라볼릭 상승이 이번인지는 확신하지 않음. 반대 의견(Pete, Tim Seymour): 원유 강세가 시장에 부담이 될 수 있으며 아직 저점이 확인되지 않았다고 주장. Tim Seymour는 하락 추세가 남아 있고 인플레이션·성장 둔화 위험을 강조, 미국 은행 주 및 리오프닝 관련 종목(라스베이거스 샌즈 등)을 언급. 리스크: 우크라이나 전쟁, 인플레이션 압력, 연준 긴축, 공급망 차질이 주요 리스크로 언급됨.
다듬은 글
the u.s reopening is gaining steam tomorrow state of the union at tomorrow state of the union the mass is optional new york city ends its vaccine mandate next monday and states from new york to california are dropping mass mandates entirely the backdrop could bode well for reopening trades tom lee's been bullish on them for over a year he runs fun strat global advisors as a cnbc contributor tom great to have you with us yeah great to see you you know we were talking about um russia ukraine at the top of the show but this sort of folds in it's all the markets is the reopening and the strength of the possible reopening is is that sort of offsetting any sort of downside action we could be seeing from from the impact of war uh i mean to an extent yes uh i think there is pent-up demand because you know for the last two years people have been home and there's been a lot of anxiety and i think you know even starbucks had noted there are more unhinged customers so i think as masks come off and and we move away from pandemic thinking i do think businesses start to see workers come back business travel comes back and i think it is all a virtuous circle um but i think the bigger sort of reason markets are stabilizing is is very likely because the fed you know which people thought was turning quite hawkish ends up having to make i think an incrementally dovish pivot a dovish pivot meaning to 25 or even more dovish than that uh yes to 25.
i mean and i i would just say it's as they as tom luddy former jp morgan vice chairman likes to say less bad is good and i think if the fed is if the expectation has gone from 50 basis points to 25 i think that is incrementally dovish hey tom it's karen thanks for being on so if they were to proceed in that dovish uh scenario of 25 and several 25s what's what's your outlook for the market then and the economy um well you know and as that chart shows you know that the market expectations have dropped sharply but i i think that the question we'll probably ask at the end of this year and that's a long ways away is whether you know a two percent ten year or even two and a quarter is bad for risk assets or even bad for the economy and i think markets will probably conclude that it's still supportive of pe expansion and and that's because uh today you'd still be paying a 40 multiple for a 10-year bond and investment grade is still going to be in the 30s and high-yield is going to be mid-20s so equities which are now sub-20 still look like a pretty attractive investment bet and of course that also feeds into the idea that if rates are rising you're not going to make money on credit but you'll make money in equity so there's a guaranteed tina how much time do you think market participants are underestimating the strength of this reopening and i'm asking this because i feel like every step along the way people have been skeptical of it you've been pretty bullish um and and your view has largely turned out to be right uh i think investors are still uh have low conviction on reopening and that's because when they talk about uh supply chain glitches or inflationary pressures they tend to think of it as margin pressure for stocks that are reopening so i think there's a tendency to think the durability of any rally is short-lived i mean you could you could see it in the way stocks really sell off on any word of inflation but it's not that different than how investors were extremely skeptical of energy stocks in 2021 because they didn't think energy would be around but even in 2022 energy has been performing pretty well um and before we let you go tom i got to ask you about bitcoin um that's part of your your beef trade all those bitcoin equities i'm curious you know are you surprised at how bitcoin has traded i would have thought that with the onset of the skirmish uh the war going on in ukraine that bitcoin would trade higher not because it's a safe haven at all or a store of value but but maybe for other reasons like the notion that there needs to be an alternative payment system developed and other ways to move money around the world other than traditional means uh yeah i mean i think it depends on on your measurement you know where we start to measure performance but i i think over the weekend there were several things that made bitcoin quite useful right we know that the the ukrainian government the prime minister was actually making a request for donations in crypto and with the swift actions we know russia i mean if you look at the ruble exchanges you know bitcoin volumes were through the roof so in times of uncertainty and when when essentially access to traditional financial systems gets cut off people do turn to crypto uh i don't know if this is the moment bitcoin had to go parabolic but i think it's really showing its use case again and i think bitcoin equity so we like you know the b is bitcoin b b the e is bitcoin equities uh you know they did quite well today because again u.s mining mining is really moving into the u.s so i think bitcoin equities especially whether it's silver gate or the miners are actually turning to equities that could actually boost performance in a portfolio tom thank you for your time good to see you thank you tom lee a fun strat um pete how are you playing reopening and or bitcoin well you know bitcoin obviously has become front and center i the one one thing mel i just want to pivot somewhere sorry i don't know i know you asked that question but what i'm what i'm curious about and i'm just and i'm and i'm having trouble with this you know me and how long i've been talking about oil and energy and i continue to talk about it and tom's talking about even more aggressively than myself i don't understand why that's not some sort of a headwind for his bullish case because i think as as we watch oil and we watch energy and he's talking about you know looking at certain levels and it's pricing in as if oil is trading at 50 right now versus the oih and all the rest of uh of what he's laying out there for energy um it just makes me wonder how can he be so bullish on the broader market i would think that that would be a definite headwind not not to totally stop the markets but to slow it down and and so i i'm just a little bit puzzled by that i understand his his you know his point and where he thinks the markets are going he says we've already hit a low i don't know that we've hit the low yet either mel and so i uh i love what i what i hear from tom but i just sort of question a few of those things as we're thinking about as far as crypto it's an interesting thing how now all of a sudden it seems to be so accepted that people are trying to figure out all these different ways that they can move the the the dollars around i think it's really it's actually should be something that really does boost up crypto i think over the next several months pro tip turn your ringer off when you're on live television tim seymour i i don't know if you can hear it over there apple i could quickly have we hit the lows do you think no um and i think this is a tremendous uh opportunity for traders out there i think there's a ton of volatility i still think we are in a downward trend i i think you you're there's very little like i agree with a lot of what he had to say i i also think about a world where everything that's happened in the last couple weeks is inflationary and a headwind of growth and the fed is hiking into this and this comes out of a period where the fed you know gave away 25 of us gdp to people for free and and that's run out so you know that's my bigger term i i think there are great opportunities look the reopening trade to me is where you should be amongst other places including the las vegas sands which i talk about u.s banks which i think are overdone certainly over european banks especially again as rates start to drop it's terrible for eu let alone the russia exposure you
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