저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
DeepSeek로 인한 AI 추론 비용 급락 속에서도 ARK는 대형주 포함 전체 포지션을 유지하며 매수 추가 여부는 아직 판단 유보. 자율주행(로보택시)과 CRISPR 기반 유전자 치료를 장기 핵심 성장 테마로 제시. Tesla는 데이터 우위를 근거로 전국 확장 가능성 강조. 영국은 규제 완화와 AI·로봇 투자 여건에서 EU보다 유리하다고 평가. 실적·가격 수치는 추정치(추론 비용 연 85~90% 하락, 자율주행 시장 8~10조 달러 규모).
다듬은 글
Big question. You buying the dip? Well, we're fully invested and we're very comfortable being fully invested. I think our confidence in the bull market broadening out has increased in the last few days. So, sure, the mega caps, we think will continue to do well. Maybe in Vedere there are some questions about its exalted position in the training chip market.
We think inference is going to become more important with these new reasoning models, and that is a more competitive part of the market. But we think that what's happening here is the collapse in the cost of innovation. Deep seac is adding to it. It has been happening, though I training costs have been dropping.
Led by video at 75% per year and I inference costs have been dropping 85 to 90% per year. Deep seek is just putting those very rapid declines into a bit of overdrive here. So I wonder if you see in video falling much further, is this an attractive price to be buying it, do you think? Well, we we own it in some of our portfolios.
We are not buying the dip yet. We do want to learn more about deep sea and more about how the market or the demand for inference chips chips might outpace those for training chips. We think the whole area is going to be vibrant. We just think there might be a little bit more of an adjustment to this new reality.
Well, you say that what deep sea shows is kind of that you can do more with less CapEx. Who do you think that's going to motivate in the US most as Donald Trump is kind of saying, who's going to be best at doing more with less? Well, anyone using AI, we we are focused on the productivity gains for knowledge workers, which are going to be massive.
That's the biggest impact of AI. But if we're looking at sectors and spaces generally where this acceleration in innovation is going to be meaningful, we think autonomous mobility. So robo taxis, we think that's going to scale from essentially nothing now to an 8 to $10 trillion global opportunity, including China.
But the sleeper here is health care, and we're seeing the convergence of sequencing technologies, all kinds of sequencing technologies, artificial intelligence and then gene editing technologies like CRISPR Cas9. That combination, we believe, is going to cure disease, is already curing disease, sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia.
That's CRISPR Therapeutics. But we think they're aiming now for type one and type two diabetes, that that would be a category killer. You know, so think about that curing disease by helping us decode the secrets of life, death, health. Those are two areas where regulation plays a big part. You've spoken about your optimism about deregulation under Donald Trump.
Do you think those are two areas we should expect to see big deregulation about what technology can get involved in? Yes, I think in both safety first and I think anyone moving into this market or these markets would agree with that. So sensible regulation. But in the U.S., the Robotaxi field is regulated by 50 states.
We think that will change to one regulator, the federal government. After after all, transportation does cross states. So that makes sense in the health care realm. That is where the thicket of regulations has really strangled the industry and even more than the outright regulations. It was the FTC, the Federal Trade Commission, not allowing mergers and acquisitions and therefore not allowing strategic buyers, big biotech companies from two to not allowing them to buy the smaller companies so that we had price discovery.
Now we're going to see price discovery. How much are these companies that are curing disease worth to these large strategic buyers now and saying that I don't necessarily want our companies to be taken out? We think they have miles to go, but we do want price discovery back in the market. Well, you talk about your excitement about autonomous vehicles.
Of course, your biggest holding is Tesla, I think. And we got Elon Musk's first earnings call tomorrow since Trump said. The White House January, typically a call. That's a look ahead. What do you need to hear from mosque? We need to hear a continuation of we're about to launch our autonomous driving system.
I mean, in effect, they've launched it. I have full self-driving. I know it's not allowed here in the UK or in Europe. But the improved. You feel that you feel safe, but. Oh, yes, yes, yes, yes. Waymo really has broken through a lot of barriers. I feel even though a Waymo vehicle is not safer than than a human driven vehicle, it knows its roads, its narrow roads, meaning there are narrow territories.
I think Tesla is going to go national. That's going to be and we'll be able to do so because it has effectively 7 million robots roaming the roads right now. I have two of them, a Y and a three, and they're learning all about Connecticut and Florida world's roads. So it has a huge competitive advantage in terms of proprietary data that nobody else has about the roads, not only in the U.S.
but in many places around the world. Do you worry that Elon Musk is taking on too much if he's got his new job in the U.S. government? He's got, you know, sharp developments coming in Tesla, lots going on with his other businesses as well as he's spreading himself too thin. If if you look at the way Elon Musk behaves as a CEO, he's a sharpshooter.
He looks for pain points and he solves those. Right. And he's for example, right now, where was or in 2018? Where was the biggest pain point? It was manufacturing the Model three, scaling the model three. He slept famously in on the factory floor. He's not doing that anymore. He's not on the factory floor now.
It's all about autonomous. He is the first, what we would call a CEO who really understands the convergence among technologies taking place right now, really catalyzed by artificial intelligence, each one of his businesses. And he also understands how critically important proprietary data is. And think about this.
Each of those companies is generating proprietary data that no one else has. So maybe you should add to his plate, should he, by U.S. tick tock. Yes. I mean, I know there have been rumors about that and and about the government sharing half and that that's kind of anathema to the United States. You know, the government getting involved like this.
I'd be surprised if that happens. But I will also say the Trump administration is full of surprises. It certainly is. And we're only a week into us. You're here with us in London, and we're delighted to see you. What has you in London? What opportunities are you excited about when you come to the UK?
Is this a good place to put your money? Well, we have launched three funds ARC Europe has launched three funds here. One is our flagship that is focused on all five innovation platforms. So robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, multi-omics sequencing and blockchain technology. So that's the flagship.
A special one for Europe, which we do not have in the U.S. because of overlaps with other funds. But we have an AI and robotics fund and that is Arcade AI. We think this convergence of robotics and AI is going to lead to humanoid robots and, you know, not just millions of them, but perhaps billions of them longer term, which is going to be a key productivity driver in both the home.
You know, right now we're not paid for house cleaning. Let's get a robot. Let's pay a robot to do it. And in in the manufacturing plants around the world, I think the prime minister was in the building earlier. Keir Starmer, you're exactly the sort of person that he wants to meet because he wants investments going into those sorts of businesses in this country.
Have you spoken to him? What sort of advice would you be giving him if he's trying to grow the economy? Well, half the solution is understanding the problem. And just making that statement suggests to me that he's saying, why hasn't this happened? And I also over the weekend heard one of the finance ministers or maybe the finance minister say the same thing.
This is a mantra, and I think it has been catalyzed by artificial intelligence as well. If you think about the UK, you produced two of the most important I come. Pennies in the world. DeepMind, which alphabet now owns and ARM which SoftBank primarily owns. By all rights, you should be developing a deep venture capital pool here, feeding startups and nourishing them and deepening your listed equity markets.
And so I think that's what they're going to do, which is fantastic. It's fantastic for for the UK. Absolutely. They talk very ambitiously, the UK leadership, but so too do the European governments leadership. And Donald Trump, as you say, is very passionate about deregulation. So yes, everybody's on the same page, but it is a race.
Is the UK keeping up enough with the EU and the US when it comes to deregulation for you to be really confident? Cathie putting your money here, I think that the that Europe is more tied up in regulatory knots than the UK is. And in fact some of our companies, Palantir has been very vocal, for example, and we think that's one of the most important a AI platform companies out there.
Alex Karp, the CEO, has said I am pulling employees out of Europe because, you know, we're running into all of these obstacles that could really harm us, you know, being hit by a 4% fine, 4% of revenue or and that's global revenue or 7% of revenue I heard recently. That's crazy. So I think Europe is is going to be held back until it gets its regulatory act together.
I think the UK is more more progressive from a regulatory point of view. And as I've said, I really believe that half the solution, the fact that your Prime Minister, your finance minister in the same week are saying, you know, we've got to figure this out, I think that's a very good thing for the UK.
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