저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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현재 은은 금 대비 약세이고 고점 대비 40% 하락해 역사적으로 싸다며 은을 매수하겠다고 함. 장기적으로 에너지(석유 고갈)와 상품 강세를 전망하고, 미국의 과도한 부채와 통화 증발이 결국 인플레이션과 위기를 낳을 것이라 경고. 금·은 등 실물자산 보유를 강조하며 설탕·에너지는 중립 입장.
다듬은 글
well a better question is a better answer is I'm buying I would buy silver today if I weren't talking to you I probably would be buying some silver because silver is down and gold is not so what I would be buying next is more silver if I will the next time I buy something which will probably tomorrow I'm going to buy more silver well I mean if commodi are cheap on a historic basis stocks are not I mean silver I have some silver right here silver is down 40% from its all-time high that's not hysteria when something's down 40% you know gold is making it's all-time high I own some gold I'm not buying it now but there are things in the market that are certainly cheaper than the some of the stocks that are going up every day well I own a index but I don't really own platinum and plaum outright uh partly because I don't know what I'm doing but also because it seems to me cars and filters are not so in demand as they were maybe 10 years ago you know electric cars have come along lots of things technology changing not that I know what I'm talking about but I do know technology is changing and maybe that's the one reason we don't need as much platinum and plaum as we did before well perhaps uh as I say I mainly own the Rogers index Commodities index as a simple way to play most of these things but from what I read yes we are going to all use electric cars someday electric trucks and yes you and I both know that nickel's very involved if we're all going to have nickel electric car someday I don't own nickel except in the index but maybe I should is there some own silver and gold outside the index yes uh but I have go owned gold for 60 or 70 years I've owned silver for 60 or 70 years I'm too lazy to sell it and I want my children to own it someday you know I'm an old peasant and when things go bad all of us old peasants want some silver in the closet we want some gold under the bed because we know that the only thing that will save us in disasters are gold and silver not the only thing but a couple of things I used to own miners I'm just a little lazy right now if you own the moners I mean you'll make a staggering amount of money Antonio as you know if you own if you know a company that's going to find gold in Berlin oh my gosh you'll make a fortune I don't know that company and it's hard work to find those companies so I mainly just own the real stuff well the better question is a better answer is I'm buying I would buy silver today if I weren't talking to you I probably would be buying some silver because Silver's down and gold is not so what I would be buying next is more silver if I the next time I buy something which probably tomorrow I'm going to buy more silver I Do by the way you know in world history silver has been more useful than gold in most of world history I mean Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver not for 30 pieces of gold and that's because silver was a money in those days and in much of the world in in fact the American government when we were set up as an independent nation we were on a silver standard it only decades later that we changed to a gold standard so don't forget silver when you're looking out the window well we have had hard asset fact currencies in our lifetimes and for the decades and centuries before that I don't see it happening now I mean many people talk about it including me but I'm just afraid that if in first of all to implement it is extremely difficult and complimented and I'm afraid that the pain that with world would have to go through is going to be so bad that people will say wait a minute that's too much let's try the old way again and it will take a gigantic crisis in my view a gigantic crisis for the world to go to a real hard hard asset back currency be good if we did it happened many times never worked in the long run always in the end it causes too much pain and the politicians say okay let's change it's too painful but maybe we'll try it again I hope they economy gets soft and weak to have a strict if you stop spending gigantic amounts of money which you would have to do on a hard ass setback system they would have to stop spending a lot of money when you stop spending a lot of easy money many people suffer the people who've been getting that money suffer and then the whole system has to start over again or they go soft again they say okay we're not going to cause any more pain spend your money we'll lend it to you we'll lend you as much money as you need well I know that the world is running out of known known supplies of oil so yes I had rather own oil and energy than be short it but I am not short energy now uh but I do know that unless something happens pretty quickly known supplies of oil continue to decline and that's going to lead to more bull markets in energy in the future I mean maybe we're going to stop using petrol maybe we're going to stop using coal we never have there are people who want to stop it maybe we will but at the moment I have not shorted coal oil or natural gas or any energy sources well maybe I should hang up and buy natural gas from what you say or maybe I should short it uh no I don't see any reason to short energy sources in 2025 2026 no the world is running out of known supplies maybe we're all going to go into a terrible recession or depression and energy use will decline or collapse I don't see that yet well I had rather own sugar than be shorted I don't have either right now except in the index I have own sugar in the past you know I've been investing a long time I can sugar I can remember when sugar was two cents that is not a typo two cents I can also remember when sugar was 64 cents that's not a typo believe it or not sugar went from 2 cents to 64 cents at one point you can have pretty dramatic moves I am neither long nor short sugar right now if I had to be something I'd rather be longer than short it today well if you ask me yes and also Washington says we have solved inflation so I know we're going to have more inflation if if Washington is selling us everything is okay no I mean an Antonio as you know there's huge much been huge money printing in the last few years gigantic money Printing and that has always led to inflation eventually the Central Bank in America says we've solved the problem I've said that many times in my lifetime many times in history no the money printing is unbelievable the debt for the US government is I I I'm glad I'm old it's a good time to be old because Young Americans are going to have huge problems huge economic problems with the debt in the future America is the largest deor nation in the history of the world and it gets bigger every day and I can remember when England went through this kind of problem England in 1924 50 years later it was bankrupt America's on that path as I say it's a good time to be an old American well we can talk about the history some more because at least that is real and what has always happened when countries start losing their currency status as the British did 50 years ago or whatever it was um you know they they start putting on Exchange controls if you want to go from London to Parish you can not take more than 50 pounds or something it gets pretty r ous it gets very debilitating and honorous for the people who are citizens of that country and I'm we're talking about England but it's happened with many countries in world history and it's very difficult just to be a normal human being in those country and it's going to happen again it will be in the US next time I I will say again the debt in the US is staggering just staggering something like 40 trillion this year alone is being added to the debt now it's an election year so nobody talks about it a few talk about it but I've been around long enough to know that somebody's going to have to talk about it again because when the market takes over you don't have to care what Central Bank say or politicians say because the market can be pretty vicious and extremely powerful when the market says listen Central Bank we don't care what you say listen Senator we don't care we've heard this before when the market is in charge it's vicious well I mean I haven't done that thorough an examination but from my experience and my reading of extensive reading of history no country in World history's ever been as indeed as the US none and maybe there has been somebody but the reason we don't hear about them is because they disappeared or they you know they suffered very badly yes Britain went from extremely powerful to bankrupt but we know about that it has happened to other countries too in history you can remember at least some of us can remember that Britain was very powerful and went completely bankrupt in 1976 I mean totally bankrupt IMF had to fly into London to help them pay their bills now Mar Margaret Thatcher came along and helped bail them out and she took a lot of credit and she did some good things but the real thing that bailed out England was the North Sea oil started flowing in 1979 so you know Antonio if you give me the largest oil field in the world I'll show you a very good time we'll have a lot of fun and that's what happened to Britain the Britain one reason Britain is still there because they discovered the North Sea oil and that saved them America doesn't have a North Sea Oil we're already the largest producer of oil in the world I don't think we can get much more so I don't know what can save the US again I am an American citizen so I don't like saying any of this but no country in world history has ever been so indebted as the US and the debt gets higher every day and you know it's not just the debt that's published there's a lot of off-balance sheet debt in the US I mean Social Security is not on the balance sheet but there are thousand millions of old Americans who have to get paid who've been promised lots of offshore offshore lots of offshore lots of offshore or off balance sheet obligations which are going to make America suffer unfortunately history shows you have to pay your bills someday you know as recently as 30 or 40 years ago the US was still a creditor Nation creditor Nation but now we're the largest de nation in the history of the world that's happened in only a few decades investment lessons from Jim Rogers extensive Market commentary a crucial investment philosophy emerges about recognizing True Value rather than chasing Market highs Rogers emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued assets particularly highlighting silver as an example while gold reaches new highs he points out that silver is trading 40% below its alltime peak making it a more attractive investment this approach of seeking assets that are cheap on a historic basis rather than following the crowd into expensive markets like stocks demonstrates the classic value investing principle of buying low and avoiding overvalued assets understanding long-term debt cycles and their profound impact on economies and markets stands as another critical Insight from Roger's experience he draws particular attention to the unprecedented US debt levels drawing a sobering parallel to Britain's historical decline from Global power to bankruptcy in the 1970s his analysis suggests that excessive debt and continued money printing inevitably lead to inflation regardless of reassurances from authorities this historical perspective provides a framework for understanding how major economic shifts can unfold over decades and how investors might position themselves accordingly the enduring value of hard assets as Financial Protection is a Cornerstone of Rogers investment philosophy he has maintained his Holdings in physical precious metals particularly gold and silver for over 60 years and plans to pass them to his children his perspective is deeply rooted in historical precedent noting how precious metals have consistently served as a form of financial insurance during economic crises throughout history he particularly emphasizes Silver's historical significance as money from Biblical times through early American history suggesting that these medals continue to serve as a reliable store of value during uncertain times
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