저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
페이버는 각국 중앙은행의 완화 기조와 재정적자 확대로 인해 언젠가 금융위기가 올 것이며, 특히 부유층이 미국 달러 및 동결 위험 때문에 금을 안전자산으로 사들이고 있다고 주장한다. 미국 국채 장기물은 금리 인하에도 오히려 하락했고 이자 지출이 1년 넘게 두 배 이상 늘어 1조 달러를 넘었다고 근거를 든다. 관세는 물가를 자극하고 미국 산업 경쟁력을 떨어뜨린다고 평가한다.
다듬은 글
and so we will move one day into some sort of a financial crisis where it happens tomorrow or in three years who knows well it's very clear that the central banks around the world are against easing in other words they haven't tightened all that much because had the money become very tight would' be a recession and we would have a very low inflation or negative rates of uh price increases but this is not the case inflationary pressures are still there and I think that investors are realizing there are here huge problems uh in the sense that say we have in America two presidential candidates one is plainly dumb and the other one is also like the first one a big spender they have no intention to cut the deficits at all to cut the debt at all they both will add with different programs to the credit growth of of government in the United States and the US is not alone other countries do the same and so we will move one day into some sort of a financial crisis whether it happens tomorrow or in three years who knows because you can postpone with printing money for a long time but I think more and more especially wealthy people realize they want to have something of their Assets in a in an asset that is relatively safe I'm not saying is 100% safe because if governments could lock you in under the pretext of covid uh they can also take your assets away and the first one to take away would be say real estate because that's obvious to anyone and it can be done in a very elegant way in the sense that you just increase taxation on real estate until most people can't afford to live in their own homes anymore so I think that gold is kind of a safe haven they they want to store I mean money has various functions one is accounting unit I don't think it's a very suitable accounting unit unit if you can print it he he understand but say gold is a better accounting unit now they buy gold because they can have it delivered delivered to their own country and put in a safe place in the central bank or in the treasury Department or wherever they perceive it to be safe we in Switzerland we kept it in Burn then Napoleon conquered Switzerland he took all the gold to France so nothing is 100% safe but uh they the behavior of the US internationally and geopolitic Ally has made many countries suspicious to hold all their forign exchange reserves in the United States you understand if if the US freezes the assets of even Afghanistan what has Afghanistan done to the US you you know is one of the poorest countries in the world and the US raees their assets they free the assets of Russia then India and China and Indonesia and all these countries they say to them themselves do we really want to hold all our Assets in the United States and they come to the conclusion no we want to have something safe so they buy gold and they can also see the money printing that is going on in the US they can also see the debt grows the government debt grows and the in payments grows of the US government and so they don't trust the US dollar anymore now the US doar has up to now been relatively strong and it may continue for a while but I can tell you one thing if the US dollar keeps on strengthening what can be done is a bad intervention like every intervention is bad but it can be done and some countries have done it they create a dual currency one for financial transactions and one for trade transactions more and more people buy gold silver Platinum they can but it's technically maybe more difficult and uh as you know different countries have different property rights say in Switzerland and in Singapore property rights are very strong so to take it away from from you in these countries would be quite something also in Thailand I have to assume that say the King has some call so he's not very likely to want to take it from other people because he would have to Tender it himself so all I'm saying is some countries are more likely uh to protect uh the ownership of assets of its individuals and other countries are less likely to do it and say in the United States Mr Trump is more likely to protect property rights than uh the Communist that might be elected well they they can increase taxation on homes that they've done that in the 19th century in Britain so a lot of wealthy people at the the aristocracy had to leave their homes their castles because they couldn't afford it anymore I I'd like to say this I mean the economies today they are paid by Wall Street and Wall Street is in essentially in Alliance with the Federal Reserve and so forth I don't think they want to present the truth the fact is simply uh there's a point at which the government debt requires increasing interest payments in that sense one wheel has come off because over the last 18 months the interest payments on the government debt have more than doubled they're now at over a trillion dollars a year and it doesn't look as if interest rates will drop a lot unless we are in a recession but at the present time since the rate Cuts occurred the US Treasury Market long-term bonds have been actually selling in off they haven't been rallying so the bond market doesn't like these rate Cuts because the bond market knows that these rate cuts are inflationary and the old economies the classical Economist including by the way uh an American Economist Irving Fisher wrote about the debt deflation Theory the problem is as Government debts become bigger and bigger an increasing portion of the tax revenues in other words you and I we pay tax the government gets these uh these tax monies that we pay these are the government's receipts and they have to pay the interest on the debt first so the interest payments on the debt actually rard other programs of the government that might be say more desirable say helping the poor in America right or you know doing something about the infrastructure which is not particularly good in the United States so over time the debt payments become burdensome and hinder or make it make economic growth totally impossible so then there comes the day when uh the government has is actually forced to print money to pay the interest on the debt and that is in the process of accelerating inflation a pillar that will make it clear and sure that the inflationary pressures actually accelerate and when the inflationary pressures accelerate the interest will go up and the debt payments will increase even more and now I'm addressing the the crisis of 1929 my sense is that the US is and other Western European countries they are so far along in the process of uh fiscal deficits that there is no way out but to print money there are ways out but as a politician if you go to your citizen Citizenship then you tell them look we have to tighten our belts what it means is you have to pay higher taxes and you the policeman and the firemen and everybody you get lower pension receipts we cut we cut your nice pension by 30% do you think this politician will get elected the politician will get elected who dismisses the cold debt problem and and promises or we'll cut tax here and we'll get give you subsidies here and social benefits there and so forth and so on all programs that lead automatically to higher inflation rates because the tariffs will increase the price of most Goods goods for American consumers and it will sort of anchor inflation in the United States and not lower inflation in the US but uh and it will also make American industry even less competitive you understand the yeah tariffs protect say Industries in a country the industries that are not particularly comp comptitive and in economics let's say if I come to you and say here are two apples is a locally manufactured Apple costs $10 and another Apple costs $1 is from overseas and this of better quality as a consumer what Apple do you prefer to buy given concerns about government money Printing and geopolitical tensions gold is gaining importance as a safe haven asset particularly among nations and wealthy investors Faber specifically notes that countries are increasingly questioning holding their reserves in US Dollars after seeing assets Frozen like Russia and Afghanistan making gold an attractive alternative store of value the fact that long-term treasury bonds are selling off despite Fed rate cut expectations is a significant red flag as fa notes the bond market doesn't like these rate Cuts because the bond market knows that these rate cuts are inflationary suggest that investors should be wary of traditional assumptions about bond market behavior in the current environment with Rising debt levels and continuous money printing threatening currency stability faor suggests that some countries might move to dual currency systems one for financial transactions one for trade this development combined with the bond Market's negative reaction to rate cuts reinforces the case for holding gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and financial system instability
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