저자: ChrisPerras · 외국인
요약 보기
Harry Dent, Robert Kiyosaki, Jeremy Grantham 등 비관론자들의 예측이 지난 수년간 반복적으로 빗나갔다고 비판. 공포 마케팅이 수익화된다는 점을 지적. 2025년은 2023년 이후의 완만한 성장·물가 둔화·강세장 지속·연착륙이 기본 시나리오이며, 변동성 확대 가능성은 상반기에 있다고 봄. S&P500 6660 도달 가능, 달러 약세 전환 시 실적 서프라이즈 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Investors, nearly exactly a year ago to the day, I released what would become my most-watched StockTalk YouTube video to date. Its title, "The Trouble with Harry Dent, Robert Kiyosaki, and Nassim Taleb – Fear Sells- Crash of a Lifetime". I put a link to that video in the description below. It has over 6500 views.
Its message, Fear. Yeap, you heard that right. Fear, Fear, and the looming "crash of a lifetime for 2024," as this group of soothsayers called it in late 2023 and early 2024. "The Trouble with Harry," is the title of a great Alfred Hitchcock black comedy, and unlike the horrific market calls of Harry Dent, it is that Fear sells.
Like clockwork, at the start of 2024, renowned, and I use that term carefully, demographic economist Harry Dent was out with his now near exact copy of his annual, end of the world is upon us, the stock market will crash forecast for 2024. Last year's remake was titled, Crash of a Lifetime, coming in 2024.
And what did the S&P 500 stock index do in 2024? Well, it gained over +23% in price appreciation and nearly +25% in total return, including dividends. Harry has been so confidently wrong for over a decade now that even in June of 2024, he quadrupled down on a market crash, predicting a -98% CRASH IN NVDA and -92% DROP IN THE Nasdaq.
Well, after his call, the S&P 500 rose another +11%, while NVDA gained about +15% post-June into year-end. Investors, why do we keep hearing the same thing from Mr. Dent or Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, or Mr. Black Swan, Nassim Taleb, or Jeremy, I've been wrong for 15 years and counting, Grantham, year after year?
Largely because, permabear stock market appearances on TV bring in baby boomer TV viewers which drive advertising dollars. Doomsday economic and black swan stock market calls bring in views on social media and click-throughs from nearly retired, semi-retired, or just always fearful investors, driving advertising dollars to social networks.
Investors, remember the lyrics to Don Henley's hit song "Dirty Laundry? He could have substituted almost any phrase in the financial markets to his lyrics and the song would have been rang just as true. People like watching train wrecks, and Fear sells. It sells often, and it sells well. Selling Fear is an outright money maker.
There is a group of RIA's who will remain unmentioned here whose entire schtick is selling and preaching Fear. Most often, the purveyors of doom, gloom, and the end-of-the-world forecast end up making far more money than those individuals following their advice. At the end of the day, we keep hearing from these same individuals, who almost never actually manage money for a living but rather sell books and newsletter subscriptions, the Harry Dent's, the Robert Kiyosaki's of Rich Dad Poor Dad fame, because those services are not regulated by the SEC or other investment supervisors.
We don't keep hearing about them because their forecasts have proven omniscient but rather because they have personality, and at the end of the day, Fear sells. Particularly Fear in the financial markets. Once again, I'm going to pick on Harry Dent and his forecasting ability for the last 20+ years.
Why? Because he's the gift that keeps giving, and for a short time, I was one of a group of portfolio managers running the money early in the launch of the long-defunct AIM Dent Demographic Fund in 1999. Quite opposite one viewer's previous comment on "nothing to see here, he's just ranting", I had personal firsthand experience with Dent's thematic, demographically driving market calls and stock picking ability.
So far, 2025 is about 10 days old, and I have yet to see Harry's prediction for the year, but wait for it, it's coming, more doom for boomers. And I say this because I've surveyed many people under the age of 40, and they have zero idea of who Harry is and how consistently and self-promoting wrong he's been.
Even after decades of being "early," code for dead wrong, calling for the crash of a lifetime, he remains near the top of the list of doomers that our clients who are over 50 and at or near retirement, seem to ask about time and time again regardless of how wrong he's been. It's easy to do a timeline Google search and see for yourself while loudly and confidently broadcasting in books, on TV, and elsewhere how poorly Mr.
Dent's forecasts have been. Or you can read from Roger Wolher's research done for his December 2021 article "Harry Dent's Stock Market, Economic Predictions, 1999-2021: How did they turn out? I put a link to that great article in the description below. My quick summary of Mr. Dent's last 25 years and Mr.
Wolher's article is as follows. Mr. Dent: October 1999, Mr. Dent released "The Roaring 2000s: Building the Wealth and Lifestyle You Desire in the Greatest Boom in History,". Dent predicted that the stock market would experience a significant boom during the 2000s. Harry predicted that the Dow could hit 35,000 in the upcoming decade, based largely on Mr.
Dent's economic specialty and demographic changes, citing the Baby Boomer generation reaching their savings window for his optimism. At the time, the Dow was trading at around 11,000. What happened? The Dow peaked at just under 12,000 on January 14, 2000, and went? Absolutely nowhere, with very high volatility for the next 10 years.
2000 didn't enter the roaring 20s as Mr. Dent surmised, but instead, the lost decade of no stock returns net. Mr. Dent: in January 2006 published a similarly optimistic view titled "The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to profit from the Greatest Boom in History." If you followed his advice, you did have a good 18 month run in the markets before the onset of the Great Financial Crisis started to brew in mid-2007 and before the market indeed crashed in the second half of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 down by over -50% before it was over.
Twice burned by being too optimistic about the economy and markets, Mr. Dent did a 180-degree turn and published his next book, "The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash, in? December of 2008. This could be Mr. Dent's worst call in the last 25 years as since the year-end of 2008; we have seen returns in the S&P500 of +586%or about 12.8% per year CAGR without dividends!
More recent Harry Dent articles and headlines: December 2016: In the wake of Donald Trump being elected for the first time, Mr. Dent predicted Dow 3000-5000 on CNBC. As of this writing, the beginning of Trump 2.0, , or +11.9% CAGR, since that Nov 2016 election, without dividends. March of 2021, Mr. Dent climbed farther out on a limb calling both price and time for his coming crash.
Investors, this is something few ever do; it's like Babe Ruth calling his shot and pointing before hitting a home run as it's quite difficult, and almost everyone advises against trying it. His outlook, the market would drop over -45% by the end of June 2021, said Dent, making the Great Financial Crisis look like a cakewalk.
Swing and another miss by Harry. But Harry was unflustered and tripled down in July of 2021, calling for equities to fall by -80% before Thanksgiving. Why not? Didn't get the earlier call right 4 months ago, haven't been right in 15 years, but go all in with your money. Get out now! And what happened?
The market went on to make major new all-time highs near S&P 500 4800 into year-end 2021. Unflustered, near all-time highs, Harry once again called for the biggest stock market crash of our lifetime to hit in 2022. And well, as luck would have it, we did get a downward move in stocks that mimics a recession, -35% in real terms.
So, after almost 20 years of being consistently wrong, Mr. Dent did hit a ground-rule double to deep right field in the first half of 2022. Unfortunately for investors following Mr. Dent's advice, he doubled down in 2023, predicting both a recession in 2023 and another "big wave down" in stocks for 2023.
Dent predicted that cryptocurrencies, in general, would be the hardest-hit assets in 2023. Wrong on all accounts. in 2023. That's not a typo, investors, +200%. The S&P500 rallied over +20%. Of course, many other financial soothsayers also got 2023 wrong. Either the economy or stocks or both wrong, like Mr.
Dent. For those investors who feel compelled to listen to Mr. Dent, Robert Kiyosaki, Jeremy Grantham or a long list of retired billionaire hedge fund managers on TV, what do I think about it? I think you need to find a new hobby or at least start listening to someone who has been at least consistently close to right on the markets over time.
While those on the aforementioned list are highly intelligent, their financial goals and objectives most likely do NOT align with yours. Mr. Dent is a great salesman and great self-promotor, but he's not someone the investing public should be listening to for financial advice. That's the trouble with Harry and the others like him, like Robert Kiyosaki; they are not fiduciaries and, as such, are not required to put investors' interests first, rather they can put their own self-interest be it book sales, newsletter subscriptions, or clicks and ad revenue, first.
Will we get a recession in the future, yes. Will we get another financial crisis in my lifetime, the odds say yes. Sorry Janet Yellen. But the likes of Harry Dent and Robert Kiyosaki are not the ones that are likely to call them both in price and time, which is what would matter for your money. For now, what do we see for 2025?
More of the old normal that started in 2023, as we discussed back then, and throughout 2024, slow growth, moderate to declining inflation, a continuation of the bull market in stocks, and a soft landing in the US economy for 2025, albeit with an uptick in volatility likely in the first half of the year.
For now, we can get to 6660 S&P500 in 2025 with some upside to that number should the earnings for the second half of 2025 surprise to the upside. The biggest possible earnings surprise for 2025 would come from the USA dollar peaking and heading lower, as it did in 2017 under Trump 1.0, thus bolstering many S&P 500 multinational companies that have badly lagged in 2024 on slower unit growth, weaker pricing, and a strong USA dollar in the second hlaf of 2024.
From Charles and I and the rest of the OHFG investment team, have a blessed weekend and remember to join us on our YouTube livestream, January 23rd at 630PM central for our 2025 1h market outlook.
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