저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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2022년이 1966년과 매우 닮았으므로 2023년은 1967년과 비슷할 것이라는 결론. 1966~1967년과 2022년의 시장 유사점: 1966년 1월 고점, 10월 저점으로 2022년 흐름과 거의 일치. 두 시기 모두 해외 전쟁 지출과 대규모 정부 지출 논란, 단기 금리 급등과 인플레이션 억제 움직임이 있었음. 경기침체 우려 측면: 1966년 당시에도 침체 우려가 있었고, 2022년 1~2분기 소폭 마이너스 GDP 이후 침체 공포가 나왔으나 3~4분기 성장으로 실제 침체는 오지 않음. 재고 변동 위주의 GDP 변화는 중요하게 볼 필요 없다는 견해. 시장 참여 측면: 2022년에는 투매(capitulation) 없이 10월 바닥이 나왔다는 점도 1966년과 비슷. 업종별 강세 패턴도 유사하다고 봄. 1967년 전망: 주식시장은 견조했으며 정치적 양극화와 반전 시위가 격화되던 시기. 발언자는 2023년이 1967년처럼 좋은 해가 될 것으로 기대하며, 중간 중간 불행한 일은 있겠지만 주식시장에는 긍정적이라는 입장. 미국 정치 양극화가 1966~68년에 처음 본격화되었다는 점도 현재와 비교.
다듬은 글
so I know I'm old you you know septo genarian just might see things a little differently than younger people but I was there now they say that if you were there and you remember you weren't really there and I'm talking about San Francisco in 1966 and people ask me pretty regularly you wrote These columns like my Christmas Day column the New York Post which any of you can access it's not behind the pay wall I just go to the New York Post website and look for the columnist and look up me and look at my Christmas Day column detailing why 2022 was so much like 1966 and therefore extrapolating that 2023 ought to be like 1967 so far that's worked pretty well but if you weren't there you kind of don't get I mean first the world was still the world us markets correlated with non- us markets all all that's been a constant the US was the biggest economy more so than than now relative to the world but at the time there was another Regional War and the US spent money on that other countries not so much a few that's very parallel to what's going on with Ukraine just different players we were a bit after a presidential election about the same amount of time president then Linda Johnson was thought to be a moderating force when he was elected but by 1966 there was the beginning of protests and hostility tied to the Vietnamese War and the aftermath of the spending associated with the Great Society which in some ways is parallel to the spending associated with the covid phenomena because if you look at a lot of that spending like a lot of the infrastructure spending it wasn't spent on infrastructure it was spent on social stuff then too you had a sudden rise in short-term interest rates in the United States and around the world tied to what oh yeah fighting off inflation now mind you it wasn't as big as in 2022 but up to that point relative to what the FED had done it was big then two you had people saying in media if you go back and study that we can't have a market bottom because we haven't had capitulation you remember people saying that in 2022 but the market which in 1966 had peaked in the first week in January and bottomed in the second week of October paralleled almost perfectly what happened in 2022 where we got a bottom in October without capitulation if you think through categories that did well they're not terribly dissimilar and then remember another killer early in 1966 because of what the Fed was doing and other central banks there was a general why widespread fear of recession and the recession was thought to be maybe already here as was the case in the middle of 2022 after the first and second quarters had slightly hair whisker negative GDP shift now remember GDP is not that precise so shifts as small as occurred in the first and second quarter which are mostly driven by inventory uh should not be actually taken very seriously and don't normally get turned into what's called technically after the factor recession as determined uh by the formal powers that be that determine those things typically a couple years later but people generally thought in 2022 we got a recession the recession didn't come economy grew in the third and fourth quarters and people are still somewhat worried about recession the same thing happened in 1966 1967 was a robust stock market uh it was the year that was famous in San Francisco where I was raised as the summer of love it really wasn't the summer of love it was you know the period of if you're coming to San Francisco be sure to wear some flowers in your hair and all that nonsense that's true but it was also serious War protests it was also serious beginnings of the hostility associated with moving to the 68 presidential election which you probably see this year doesn't stop the stock market and uh the period epitomized to a large extent by parts of the movie Forest Gump with the hey hey LBJ how many kids did you kill today we don't really that's a be really first time that we had that kind of hostility against the president United States parallel to the degree to which were polarized today a lot of people will tell you and I believe it's true because I was there that that period 6667 into 68 is the first time that America becomes so heavily polarized with so little in the middle and so much on both sides like we are now so I just put all that out there and there's more uh that you think about as parallels as to why because 2022 was so much like 1966 the closest two years I can find ever in history that 2023 ought to be a lot like 1967 and with that you should be happy even though there'll be lots of things in the year that aren't happy I hope you have a happy year when it comes to stock]
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