저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄: 은행권 위기 이후에도 장기 투자자는 주식 비중을 유지해야 하며, 중앙은행 발언 변동성은 과도한 공포일 뿐이라는 결론. 은행 구제 관련: SVB 구제 과정에서 재무부·FDIC·연준이 예금자 100%를 보호했고, 주주·채권자는 보호하지 않았다는 점을 지적. 이런 일관성 없는 발언이 시장 공포를 키운다고 주장. 은퇴자 자산배분(순차수익률 논리): 하락이 먼저 오면 이후 더 큰 회복이 필요하다는 '순차수익률' 논리는 장기 관점이 없을 때만 맞다고 반박. 65세 부부 중 한 명은 20~30년 이상 생존하므로 장기적으로 주식이 채권·현금보다 낫다고 주장. 포트폴리오 변동성: 주식 대 채권 비율에는 정답이 없고 투자 기간에 따라 달라진다. 90/10은 변동성 감소가 작고, 80/20, 70/30으로 점차 줄이는 것이 나이에 따른 원칙이라고 설명. 장기 투자 기간이면 변동성을 줄일 필요가 거의 없다고 주장. 연준 발언과 시장 변동성: 중앙은행은 대부분 사후 대응이며 발언이 일관되지 않아 시장이 흔들린다고 비판. 발언 금지는 의회 입법이 필요해 현실적이지 않다고 봄. 금리 인상 영향: 연준의 기준금리 인상은 단기 국채 금리에는 영향이 크지만 경제 전반 영향은 제한적이라는 입장. 2022년 대출은 오히려 증가했다고 제시. 역전된 수익률 곡선: 과거에는 경기침체 신호였으나 이번에는 예금 비용이 낮고 장기금리가 높아 은행 대출 수익성이 좋아 다르다는 주장. 대출 증가율이 물가상승률 아래로 떨어지기 전까지는 경기가 나빠지기 어렵다고 봄.
다듬은 글
we will not bail out Silicon Valley Bank the next day Sunday treasury FDIC and the Federal Reserve collectively bail out all the depositors 100 percent they don't bail out the shareholders they don't bail out the creditors they say it's not a bailout but it's bailout and in that those kinds of inconsistencies scare the Dickens out of the market so every month people send in questions and I try to respond to them in this format that allows you to know what I think very quickly about a whole variety of topics so here's one that comes in how would you respond to folks who bring up sequence of returns as a reason to weight your portfolio more heavily toward fixed income once in retirement well I'd respond to them saying they don't know what they're doing the fact is the concept of sequence of returns is one that makes perfect sense if you don't really have a long-term View and let me explain why if you buy it a hundred and the market Falls by 30 percent at that moment you got 70.
and it takes a 50 increase from 70. to get to 105 which means you need a bigger than 30 percent almost 50 percent return to make up for a 30 drop so the theory is that if you have a portfolio that falls markedly first you got to make up for it with even more later that's true if those are your points if that's 70 is important to you relative to your cash flow in retirement yeah that kind of makes sense a little bit but most people in retirement you know the average 65 year old man married to a 60 year old woman which is about as common a couple as you get one of the two of them is going to live more than 20 years more maybe 30 years more maybe longer and they have a fairly long-term Horizon and over the course of that period the first 10 the seconds just keep repeating each other and if you do what sequence investors think you should do which is make your portfolio more defensive less volatile because of the risk that you could have a down move first before an up move which you always could have you end up with a lower long-term return because in very long periods stocks do better than bonds stocks do better than cash not in the short term necessarily but in those long time Horizons that most retired folks have the fact is the sequence of return argument leads you to worst returns another question that's sort of parallel to this is an 80 20 allocation of stocks and bonds or stocks and cash or a 9010 sufficient enough to reduce Port overall portfolio volatility in your portfolio well some people as their time Horizon they need their Investments to work over gets shorter do need to reduce the volatility in their portfolio but it's a little bit like saying if you put your toe in the water are you very wet well not as wet as if you put your foot in the water and not as wet as if you go down to your knee but it's actually hard to stand on the side of the pool and go down to your knee without falling over sideways and then you get all wet what's the right amount and the answer is and this is really simple as I explain it to you if you have a really long time Horizon you don't really need to reduce volatility at all as you get older you get to a point where your time Horizon will get shorter not so much when you're 55 or 60 or 65 but after that and as it gets shorter and shorter you could start with 90 10.
and that's the right amount of volatility then it gets a little shorter and you go to 80 20 and then 70 30 if you want but the reality is there's not a magic number that's right for all and when I say that to you it should make sense to you that there's not a magic number that's right for all that kind of has to be figured based on your time Horizon and your circumstances but a 90-10 doesn't give you much portfolio volatility reduction but it gives you a little bit 80 20.
a little bit more you go from your toe to your foot to your knee but the reality is for most people the really long time Horizon you want to be in the water the whole time anyway on the next one why does a market go up and down so much every time the FED speaks when the market should have priced in these moves weeks ago should the FED be stopped from speaking I don't know you know I've always been a Fed critic and if you've heard me before I'm not just a Fed critic I'm generally a central bank critic I don't believe Central Bankers actually are more than mostly not 100 as it comes to monetary policy other than reactive they're not leading us to something mostly they're mostly following what happens and they react month to month so you get a period like January where the inflation numbers come in higher than people expected in February and people freak out and so does the fed and the FED people start talking about how they got to raise rates more to fight inflation well they weren't saying that the month before so the inconsistency freaks people out and then you get a period where things come in better in terms of the things they worry about and then they talk otherwise and you take something like Silicon Valley Bank uh Janet Yellen not the Fed secretary treasurer who used to be head of the Fed says on the Saturday that's so after Silicon Valley Bank failed Friday Saturday we will not bail out Silicon Valley Bank the next day Sunday treasury FDIC and the Federal Reserve collectively bail out all the depositors 100 percent they don't bail out the shareholders they don't bail out the creditors they say it's not a bailout but it's bailout and in that those kinds of inconsistencies scare the Dickens out of the market in fact when governments ever say inconsistencies first we say this then we say that then we say this you say this I say that this member of the board of Governor says the one thing the other member of the board of Governor says the other thing and they conflict two weeks apart it drives people crazy and the reality is they don't know what they're going to do so what they do is often a surprise at the last minute sometimes it's not sometimes it is what they say a lot of the time is because they're talking all the time I wish they wouldn't talk the question says should they be banned from speaking I wish they wouldn't speak but there isn't really the authority to stop that that would take an act of Congress and actually an act of Congress is really hard to do and you know I'm not Catholic maybe you are maybe you're not but traditionally Catholic people love the Pope it makes sense why they would but once you look at somebody that's head of the FED for the most part most people treat them as as nearly as sacred as the pope as if they had some all-knowing power and members of the Board of Governors are kind of seen as one step away from the pope of Finance and as that happens their utterances as they wiggle around cause inconsistency and cause uncertainty and that's what makes markets volatile relative to them uh with that comes the question what consequences of Fed rate hikes are you concerned about really not so much because what the FED does is it raises fed fund rates which impact U.S treasury bill rates but don't really have a lot more impact than that people often think they do but they don't the fact in this environment in other environments they sometimes can and have often in history and there's been long periods of time where long periods of time where when the FED has raised rates or lowered rates it's had huge impact right now it's not having much impact really which you could tell by the fact that over the course of the last year they raised rates more than they pretty much ever have in a year and meanwhile the economy keeps going on and the drops in things like grain prices and oil prices and what have you most in the supply chain on snorkeling mostly all happened before they ever started making any of their 75 basis point hikes but to that point that goes to the next questions asked does the historically inverted yield curve not matter this time why is this time different well anybody that's read me for a long time has probably known that in decades past I would regularly cite the yield curve that when it becomes so-called inverted inverted meaning when short-term rates get above long-term rates so short-term rates intermediate term rates longer term rates very long-term rates slopes downward with short rates above longer term rates I would have always said that leads to recession and until it ends is probably parallel to a bear Market continuum why because what I would have said then and did say that is that this is a reflection of future banking system eagerness to lend why because the core business of banking whether it was Silicon Valley Bank or any other bank they do other things but the core business is taking in short-term deposits as the basis of making long-term loans and if they have to pay a lot more for the short-term deposits then they're going to get off the long-term loans then there's no profit incentive to lending at those lower long-term rates and they're not going to do it but when short-term rates are above long-term rates they would now most of my life the treasury bill rate for 1980 bills has been a pretty good proxy not perfect but pretty good proxy for what it has cost Banks to get deposits that they would use short-term deposits that they would use as the basis for making these longer-term loans I am not going to get into a detailed Treatise of how banking works but those longer term loans fall into varied pockets in a normal Bank handled varied ways and that's all very well understood but the aftermath of what happened with covert and the period actually leading up to covet low bed flooded the banking system with deposits as short-term interest rates were very low that had the deposits costing the banks almost nothing and you'll remember short-term rates being low but what you don't think about is if you go to JPMorgan today or Bank of America or Citigroup and you want to put in a deposit on average you get paid about one-third of one percent but mortgage rates you know where they are at the commenting Banks lend to Banks lend longer term to businesses and those rates are higher mostly higher still with the exception of just a very few kinds of businesses and Banks also buy long-term government bonds in you know a 10-year bond right now it's just a hair whisker over three and a half percent so if you got a cost of 35 basis points a 31 33 basis points and you're lending out a 10-year treasury bill rate a little over three and a half percent you've got a whopping profit margin on doing that you've got a lot of incentive to lend normally yo curb inverts long-term rates are higher than short-term rates Bank Stop lending The Lending kills the economy because businesses and people who are dependent on borrowing before are dependental borrowing to continue when the bank says Give Me Back My Bullets they have to pull in their horns and they can't do the activities that they previously engage in and that shrinks the economy in 2022 as a Fed raised rates steadily loan growth actually increased in beginning 2022 is operating at a four and a half percent annual rate by the time we got to the end of the year is operating at a 12 annual rate loan growth accelerated because those deposits stayed the same at low costs to the banks regardless of what happened at treasury bill rates and long rates went up out of increased fear of inflation and as that happened when one long rate goes up all the rest of them tend to go up in parallel mortgage rates corporate bond rates and rates for intermediate term business loans and so Bank make more profit from lending as they make more profits on lending they keep going it's why it's different this time and until you see lending in aggregate for the banking system you can see this online from the Federal Reserve of St Louis every two weeks two weeks after the lending numbers are actually completed until lending Falls below the inflation rate it's pretty hard to have the economy go bad which is what the FED banking on doing to try to stem inflation kneecap the economy uh so I think we've covered all of the points I always enjoy talking to you about days I keep sending questions in hopefully I can answer them there's a lot of things I can't answer but I always love talking to you thank you so much
Comments 0