저자: JuniorTrader · 외국인
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엔비디아·AMD·SMCI·ARM·마이크론 등 반도체 종목의 기술적 분석 영상. 엔비디아는 상승 추세 속 단기 조정으로 보며 공매도 비중(36%) 급증을 주시하나 50일선 유지 시 강세 유지 전망. AMD는 구조상 강세가 유지되나 단기 조정 가능성. SMCI는 593 이탈 시 하락 구조 전환 우려. ARM·브로드컴은 상승 구조 유지, 일부 차익실현 언급. 마이크론은 일봉 상승 구조 유지, 107 지지 여부 관건. 발언은 대부분 단기 차트 기반 기술적 설명.
다듬은 글
hey that is envidia AMD smmci arm.com and Micron I already did videos on spy and QQ and the tech talks and Tesla also the important key levels to watch check it out on my channel and also journey I have taken some profits today check the videos out here on my channel link to this channel is also ll right now so Nvidia talking about uh the price section on this so as I have talked about it that the structure even with this today's Red candle is just a pullback very little pullback it's not changing any structure to the bearish side and if I quickly just show you my tool it also hasn't shown me anything that tells me that oh it's now selling off it's the bearish structure no no it's just a normal pullback anyways so we are in full-on uptrend right now on Nvidia now important levels to watch is what I want to focus on and then we'll jump on to the hourly interval now before even going on onto that I actually want to highlight something very important here and that is the short volume data now yesterday we had 36% short volume data that came on Nvidia now this is the highest I have ever seen today's sta will come in the evening right if you have my tool you can plug in play now the thing is that this 36% that is as I said quite huge never has Nvidia given 36% never ever about 30% to begin with right now this also what led me to take some profits in my dividend investing portfolio for NVIDIA position that I'm holding because today's candle is not though a selloff candle but it's a red candle which means the short sellers are not in any urgency to cover their position right if they have filed up here somewhere right they are fine they are not like oh you know that we want to cover our position so if Nvidia is not able to cross above $130 now and we see a lot of days of consolidation here things may start to look different soon as so just be prepar just keep that in mind even though right now things are not looking dire things are not looking bearish but just keep this in the back of your head okay now today's data as it will come in the evening we'll see in the evening well if today's short volume percent is also quite High that's getting worrisome because if we don't break the levels to the upside they will not be obligated to cover their position and that might create some ripple effect but just keep that in mind but if we break out to the upside these short sellers will have to cover eventually and that's going to create another squeeze pressure so this is why just keep this in mind it's a very this will Define also quite a lot moving forward this uh data as well it plays a quite a huge role now because it's a high volume data which came after 28% uh 36 came after 28% which is also significantly High than you know seems like shorts are really trying to double down here they got squeezed out right we talked about it they're trying to double down here again so wow anyway so just wanted to show you this as well just keep it in your mind all right now so let's turn this thing off and let's go back to the levels right here so as for the technicality guys any pullback until 50 days moving average or even 118 is just going to be a pullback in the overall structure that in my opinion is not going to change the structure bearish it's it's not changing the structure bearish all right let's go to the hourly interval now we do have a weakness at least for the intraday today is this a weakness strong enough now what I'm seeing is that we broke 20 hours moving average and then we rejected underneath of that so keeping this in mind also keeping in mind that 36% High short volume and today we seeing some sell off in the continuation tomorrow level you're watching is very much this level of 127 if he loses this level tomorrow and we lose 50 hours moving average as well Nvidia might go through some cool off and at least for now this cool off may take us all the way down to maybe 122 and then we'll see what happens from thereafter but I still believ eventually until earnings will keep Nvidia strong but let's see if this pull back comes but tomorrow I won't be surprised if this cool off continues but at the same time if we stay above 50 hours moving average and anytime if we take out the level above 128 things will start to look back again to the upside now um let's turn on my that tool again off the structure tool so we do have a supporting Cloud coming from bottom underneath as well what I'm also seeing here is that uh there's a you know that little bit of the ongoing uptrend is right now going through intraday sell off right today we had a salof you can see it's all red and orange what these red and orange means if you're are a member you have that video with you the introductory video on this and it goes and explain about how to read this tool but to simplify here in the video this is not necessarily showing a strength of the bullishness right so the school off may continue and let's see again we have that 50 days moving average down there this Cloud which is a bullish Cloud right now is also coming from underneath so we'll see what happen happens uh around this area if we continue to cool off and not break the levels to the upside or doesn't continue to the upside but that is like 128 and 16 cents above that tomorrow I would consider some again upside meum otherwise we look like we might be heading little bit at least for tomorrow some cool off uh at least what the price session is showing me right now and so that's that now as as yeah upside level you already have in place if you get above 127 and so 12 28 Zone area and so forth but all right so now that's Nvidia and actually let's take a look at five minutes interval as well and yeah things are and also the our cloud is right now red right so you can see today we on Nvidia in our Cloud as well we just kept rejecting it every retest of it eventually got rejected right so also not a good sign especially when you are seeing a high short volume came in that yes today I think since the price kept going higher and higher not sure how many of them covered yesterday itself but when the next you don't really see a uh squeeze again to the upside not so it's usually that they're still holding on to the position today and today's data as I said will come in the evening so we'll see on the tool what it is like righ so AMD testing today that 200 100 days moving average I'm not going to plug and play my tool everywhere it's just where you know again if you have access to it you can you know do the thing um but I want to you know also focus on the price action for just in its entirety as how the candles are looking like but the tool makes it really easy and I'll I'll start doing more and more of that in my videos um it's it's just that I just don't really want to bombard you with completely new thing on the videos you know it's slowly and slowly I will introduce right so that it's not like a complete Sudden Change for you all right so hey at least on the videos if you are just a viewer and don't have access to my tools all right so AMD this red candle today is fine we are still bullish there's you know it just it's not changing the structure we closed below 200 days moving average that's another story right but a structure is still not bearish we are technically overall structure is bullish AMD can continue to cool off but overall structures can still remain bullish on this for a good amount of cool off as well right so what those levels would be like 145 or so forth until then overall structure pull it's just going to constitute a pullback but Inay until then can cool off continue so going to the hourly interval and I can't help myself but I really want to turn it on so because it just makes it so easier right um okay so we had a bullish structure early in the morning but then eventually uh things gave out okay and so right now we if we stay just where we are and continue below we can continue tomorrow to $153 and its structure is weak right now at least okay it's it's not in the ongoing bullish structure okay uh at least intraday like this cool off can continue right so as for the up side it would be uh 157 and above if AMD intraday tomorrow can get above it sure some upside make otherwise cool off meum and then you will have to wait and see where does this structure starts to turn like green again right like uh or things like that green again and then we will see an upside so um yeah so that that that's why I wanted to turn this on because just makes it so simpler to explain right away right anyways um so yeah the this way you don't have to worry about what's the pullback this tool handles automatically it cuts out the noise of the pullbacks and the rebounds and accordingly does the color coding to still give you the direction as which what is the direction is it green or technically uh you know negative which is red and orange and positive is green and dark green right so all right and so yeah so that's AMD and you know 153 can be looked at as if we continue There but that will be intraday only we still have 50 hours moving a support coming in from underneath all right things are still looking good with AMD though okay smci oh it's a red candle Junior Trader RV bearish structure all right let's plug in the tool technically um not necessarily guys yeah we are just right now getting a pullback um so this was the rebound we talked about but that's a rebound lot of orange stuff you are seeing but that's a rebound we called out this play but the structure of overall from here on after it's just going through a pullback right now and even though this was our play if he lose this level 593 I do expect structure also will start to change again and that's where some big again downside move may come so if you lose anytime 595 it's it's going down right and the next pick move is definitely Above This 630 and right now it will be until 2 two sorry 200 days moving average and then rest would be above that um that's pretty much with the smci let's take a look at also the uh hourly interval so hourly interval is showing weakness for sure um it's still rejecting underneath of that blue box that I provided you right so for tomorrow if we you know um yeah I I I just looking at it it feels like to me we might as soon as we get above 20 and 50 hours moving average above this thing may continue higher to me it just looks like a decent pull back but I gave you the level to watch for any continuation more to the sell off but uh right now just looking at the prior section I think I feel like this may continue higher it's just trying to a little bit just do a pullback nothing more than that just my opinion though and what I'm seeing in the price section but you have the areas of stop loss to watch but this was the move I talked about from this area 546 back again to this blue box we got that move now we are waiting for that what that next move would be right arm so arm structure is still bullish okay here I'm not going to plug in my PL tool I mean if you have access you can plug and play I can just tell it by looking at it and structure is still technically bullish today is cool off still though above 20 days moving aage getting bought back up and uh any pullback if it comes 121 overall structure is still fine still bullish to the upside but let's take a look at if intraday cool off until then may continue so hourly weakness is there and tomorrow if we stay below the level of 131 and 35 cents it's just a bearish intraday downside play if you get about 131 and 35 cents okay some upside may continue all right that's arm broadcom broadcom uh this this just a pullback tiny manyi nothing to worry about in my opinion just but take partial profits and the extensions partial profits right and um technically structure on the this is still bullish um multiple pullbacks even until 156 and 68 cents it's just going to be a pullback on this let's go to the hour interal let's see if pullbacks are going to continue and um let's actually um yeah let's plug in plug in my tool here let's see so we did re try to rebound but you can see that only remained a rebound that didn't really change the structure to bullish yet right so that's where the importance is of this tool is that um technically you could have thought hey it's turn turning bullish right but you can see that just was a rebound only in the downward structure and we continued to sell off so that's where this tool really helps out and when you see yesterday like we got a green candle and it turned bullish right um so yeah right now though intraday is looking weak but let's take a look at the levels uh overall structure though it's it's in the bullish structure but can some more cool off continue tomorrow if we stay below 50 hours moving average uh one level to watch downside would be 164 area and below that sure the significant level like 161 but I just showed you our cloud is also on my tool is right underneath here so let's see if it get absorbed here it's likely first time it may get absorbed here as well so something to just keep an eye on and then yeah if you stay about 50 hours moving average just can continue higher if you somehow hold this pivot and we can just continue higher right so but yeah those are the levels to watch on broadcom all right Micron so let's go to the Daily interval first and Micron okay overall structure remains bullish okay we are above 200 days moving average we got our plays this was the play $93 to $101 and the next play I talked about above 200 moving average we are in that play and right now it's just a pullback getting P back up let's take a look at hourly interval and on hourly interval yeah we yeah this one looks like a to me already a uh little bit maybe bullish yeah here you go so this one has turned itself bullish here and right now it's running into a pullback in the post Market um yeah okay but anyways so see it makes it so simple right um so if we tomorrow lose this level 107 intraday cool off may come but somehow if we can hold about 50 hours moving average in 107 this can continue either choppy or upside why am I saying maybe choppy as well because I'm seeing this is little bit slowing down here in the distribution so at least tomorrow if just because we're in the center range right that's why I'm saying other chop or upside above 50 hours moving average and below that is definitely downside but the more upside strength I want to see it actually stay a little bit closer to the upside for that first if in the pre-market we see that maybe but I want to see that it doesn't really like it breaks out after pre-market not that it just sells off right so but um pre-market also helps in identifying a lot of these things that if it's closer to the supply zone are already out of the supply zone right so all of that okay that's it for this video guys that you saw in the video with that I'll see my next videos take care bye
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