저자: JuniorTrader · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 130달러 저항 구간에서 공매도 물량이 쌓여 있으나 일봉상 구조는 아직 하락 전환되지 않았다고 봄. 122.5달러 상회 여부와 실적 발표(이번 주)가 핵심 변수이며, 118달러 이탈 시 차트상 하락 전환 가능성. AMD는 200일선 하회 후 151달러 이탈 시 하락 우려, arm·브로드컴·마이크론·SMCI 등 반도체 전반이 약세로 제시. S&P500은 신고가권에서 조정 중이나 구조는 유지, 나스닥은 473.72달러 이탈 시 하락 시사.
다듬은 글
that is starting off with Nvidia then AMD smcr arm broadcom Micron and I'll show you QQ and spy as well so we have nvidia's earnings this week and we have and we are dealing with one a very stubborn level of resistance that is $130 now this area well as I have been showing you from last couple of days and last pretty much the whole week that there there's just so many short sellers filing up here and let's that thing come up so you can see starting Monday last week then all the way till Thursday we had huge amount of short sellers piling up at the level of 130 and that zone and if you have seen my videos over the weekend then not just over the weekend but all throughout the last week as well that um especially this one earnings speed is there a potential of massive squeeze now that's what we'll be focusing on as well like what is the price action now showing us no sign of that right now back in those videos I talked about what we want to see at 130 so let's go to the hourly interval first what we want to see at 130 a strong breakout a green good candle and not a candle that would be like Wix selling off at 130 what are we seeing today we got to that same very level of 130 Zone we started to see slowness some sell off and then retest good big wick and a selloff so $130 is not yet giving as the squeeze it's still acting as a it's now a very stubborn level of resistance however has the structure changed to bearish right now like are we done with this thing and are we just crashing below so let's answer that so again everything is from the lens of technicals and the price action so you can see down there well we haven't yet on The Daily interval lost a structural pivot here we are still holding that okay um on The Daily interval technically structure hasn't turned downtrending yes it can be argued there's a high Short Selling present here and the short sellers are preventing it that area 130 to go above but we haven't yet broken the structure to the downside it's a pullback it's a cool off today we'll take a look at hourly interval because intraday yes intraday weakness is there and what is the level for that I'll talk about that in just a second if Nvidia as long as we still stay above 122 and 51 cents technically we are still fine but the problem is that if if we are very closed here down here still above 50 and 20 days moving average but since this week we have earnings which will definitely change couple of things if we stay here around 122 until earnings and earnings let's say gaps down and we lose 20 and 50 days moving average with the level of 118 that breaks the chart to the downside okay losing 118 is pretty much losing the chart to the downside so over the weekend when I also did these options uh earnings week analysis with the options I talked about that if we can close up and up above here even before earnings that will not break the structure to the downside so it all comes down to you know where's the strength before earnings but as for right now the overall structure technically the trend hasn't broken and I have this blue box down here from 122 and 44 cents area once we start to lose this with 50 days moving average there much more weakness I expect but right now this area is not yet for me that hey now structure has broken we are bearish no not on the daily let's go to the hourly interval going to a lower time frame now if you're trading just intraday or what not so for intraday you already had a sell off today guys at this level 130 right so the thing is that on intraday we have lost this level of 127 one of the previous pivot Zone also a significant level if Nvidia closes below it intraday weakness may continue okay well it all comes down to above 127 we are bullish okay I mean as for intraday upside and right now looks like some rebound is coming we'll take a look at 5 minutes interval as well but if we stay below 127 that may give us again overall structure is not turning bearish yet that is like once we start to lose this blue box but until then you can expect then until earnings strength may not come we might just go sideways here choppy stay bit around about 122 to $127 range and so forth right with this 200 hours moving average so something to take a look keep keep in mind I'm do though I do see this pull back uh getting you know bought back up right now but we'll have to see so let's go to the 5 minutes interval and yeah there's one green candle coming let's see if it's strong enough that it can you can see that at very level27 significant level we had some consolidation but structure tried to do something there right you can see multiple 20 minutes of some you know left or right when then we finally broke and then eventually coming back down so let's see if Nvidia can regain this but this will be the important area 127 lot of reaction the last day as well here if NV can close above it still all fine even on intraday if he close stay below it that's where the problem remains so yeah quite a again structure hasn't changed yet overall to the downside but let's see how things closes 1278 is the level you're watching okay AMD and as I said on Nvidia structure still overall technically hasn't broken to the downside yet AMD AMD is in a little bit of a peculiar State here uh we have lost 200 days moving average oh well we are rejecting still underneath of that and we have lost one of the pivots areas as well that is the level of 51 area so if AMD closes below 151 today um you can expect it to test 20 days moving average again and then we'll see if it forms a pivot at 20 days moving average and tries to come back up but there's a you can expect as it's breaking those levels running into consolidation and the way hourly candle is looking like yeah wow look at the sell off up on the top there right so AMD yeah it's it's a little bit looking weaker so area you are watching is around 145 and 30 cents with 200 hours moving average let's see if it does something there but pretty much once we lost rejected lost the level of 153 that was the downside play there um that's AMD let's take a look at smci so smci broke the other side so we we were looking at two sides here right so this was our one of the plays from one sorry 545 up to like 634 and then it start to go in the sideways structure here still stayed in the pull back and then we said we talked about two levels if we break 595 to the downside it's a downside continuation if we break 631 to the upside it can continue higher it chose to broke to the downside and that's the play and now you are watching what happens around here if any pivot forms or if it comes down to 545 that's pretty much that the direction it is in so yeah right now it's it's going down it broke the level to the downside arm arm unfortunately well so here's the thing though guys um I would argue that structure hasn't changed yet on this though I mean what I'm saying the structure yes it was looking really great but hey Market is selling off that's why we have stop losses as well but this I would say as long as it can maintain itself above 126 and 24 cents it should be fine um this is where we will see if it consolidate chops around more but yes the problem is that we have lost uh you know quite a consolidation already on the hourly interval this is the zone you are watching this area 12880 area 12980 cents to 128 area if if if arm can get above this or close above it today right this Zone that's fine if it stays below it yeah it can go through some more choppiness or somewhat but um but yeah you're watching next level is 126 and 25 c 200 hours moving average or whatnot um yeah but this is where yeah once we lost these levels like 2050 both yeah it's just downtrending there right so and that's that and yeah that's level let's see if 20 days moving average is going to give that pivot and we continue higher but yeah it's it's it was again that's that's why we have stop- losses probability was you know if we lose these to the downside those 20 and 50 sure you'll have a stop loss but yeah it's a little bit of a disappointment that that candle previous candle was a really good close and then it just gave up broadcom so bro again all semiconductors are negative today now broadcom is testing 50 days moving average anytime if it loses this level of 161 and 36 Cents now your next level is 156 and 25 cents and let's see if 20 days moving average give it the support or we get the support at 16136 taking a look at hourly interval right now we are in the momentum of selloff for sure we'll see I I'll do another video later in the uh afternoon um but with broadcom if he can stay above 16139 cents that's fine otherwise if you eventually lose 200 hours moving average as well then level by level to the downside is what you are watching again there's weakness today in all you know semiconductors and uh yeah this is where it's starts to show some weakness now broadcom as well but 16151 cents below is 156 all right then we'll see what 20 days moving average does there Micron no surprise this one already I don't have that indicator on actually right now guys the um structural indicator but again if you have it you can see it if you're a member an this video and uh Micron pretty much became the red structure once we had this red candle I talked about it back then as well since then no surprise it's been going down and um yeah Micron right now yeah it lost 200 days and 20 days moving average as for today yeah it comes next level we are looking is at now $93 59 so um yeah that's that with Micron let's take a look at spy and QQ spy selling off little bit at alltime Highs but structure hasn't broken yet on this I still believe even if any pull again take partial profits here I won't be surpris well if pullback comes to 548 that's fine that's just going to be a pullback technically on spy nothing more than that and then KQ is again all the tech stocks are selling off right KQ I would well this is the level pretty much 473 and 88 cents if we lose this let's see if we find a pivot there but yes we are running into now cool offs and it all comes down to this level 473 72 losing this level is the level to the downside because that will also lose 50 days moving average it's a good test on QQ today can it hold above um that level right Nvidia sorry I got distracted by Nvidia because it's getting bought back up so um yeah again you're still watching 127 and as I'm saying that overall structure hasn't changed bearish yet but we have to see how the day closes now but taking a look at 5 minutes interval again uh let's see if nvd can get above and close above 127 so that that all what it comes down to now all right Okie doy so guys
Comments 0