저자: BillMillerIV · 외국인
요약 보기
SEC의 비트코인 현물 ETF 승인 결정은 2023년 8월 DC 항소법원 판결로 길이 열렸으며, 이후 비트코인은 약 75% 상승했다. 기관 수요 유입과 4월 반감기로 인한 신규 공급 절반 감소를 근거로 단기·장기 모두 강한 낙관 입장. 비트코인은 미래 기축통화 가능성이 있는 글로벌 기술로 보며 본인 자산 상당 부분을 보유 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
let's kick off our discussion with Bill who will share his views on yesterday's Milestone SEC decision as well as his broader views on the current investment environment Bill thanks David and thanks everyone for your time really appreciate your attention uh and the time because that's your most valuable resource so we're going to start with the Bitcoin Co ETF situation just because it's top of mind for everyone um two observations I want to make and I'm going to end with where we stand now on the technology first observation is the Milestone decision from my assessment really came in August of 20123 when the DC court of appeals ruled that the sec's prior rejection of Grace scales application for an ETF was capricious that decision is what cleared the way for today and actually if you look at the price of Bitcoin when that decision came out out in August it was about 26,000 and since that time the markets have anticipated the demand and they're run up about 75% to the current price today um the other observation I want to make about the decision is that ironically despite the sec's reluctance uh it actually counteracts the underlying uh promise of Bitcoin which is to be something independent of government control because what ETFs do is they centralize the custodian ship and the ownership of Bitcoin um now with all of that said what do we think about it now we're still enormously bullish not only because of the upcoming having the spring which will reduce the marginal supply of Bitcoin entering the market each day but more importantly because of the longer term promise of the technology as the only asset that I'm aware of where the marginal supply or the supply is completely independent of the demand for the asset and we now have have a 13-year track record of increasing demand for the asset and again we now have an Institutional demand from via the ETFs or accessibility we also have the marginal supply getting cut in half this is really important because every Bull Run in bitcoin's history has come on the heels of a having event Bitcoin miners receive Bitcoin in exchange for verifying transactions they then sell that Bitcoin onto the open market to fund a lot of their operations their Machinery all kinds of things and that marginal supply getting dumped onto the market will be cut in half so unless you think demand is going to fall drastically this spring there's one clearing mechanism for that generally speaking and that is a higher price so we're enormously optimistic about not only the price but the technology longer term because what it stands for in our assessment at least is the promise of a completely new monetary technology that could end up being the future Reserve currency of the world of the world it's a global phenomenon and it's very early in our opinion still so it represents an enormous part of my personal financial picture it represents enormous part of Bill 3's Financial picture and we're still hugely optimistic on it let me point you to a couple resources because people always ask about this two pieces on our website I'd encourage you to read one the value investors case for Bitcoin which we wrote in 2015 that kind of lays out the long-term conceptual framework for how to think about valuation at a trillion dollars in market cap 900 billion to a trillion right now in market cap it's still a tiny fraction of all the Assets in the world and so there's a lot of room for growth there from our perspective the other piece micro strategy Bitcoin the mother of all fat tales we wrote that uh three years ago that's also on our website it talks about all the bare cases for Bitcoin and why we don't think they hold a lot of water um finally the other resource I'd point you to is the website hope.com that's done by Michael sailor and micro strategy and it's a phenomenal collection of thinking around Bitcoin in-depth research and all of the stuff that uh you'd want to understand before purchasing it and and joining that joining that uh joining the movement as I think of it
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