저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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버핏의 결론: 마이크로소프트는 여전히 부를 안겨줄 수 있으나 본인은 기술주 직접 투자보다 소수의 장기 우량주 보유를 선호한다. 기술 산업 및 미국 경쟁력 배경: 과거 미국은 전자·자동차 등에서 일본·독일에 밀려 경제 우울감이 컸으나, 정보화 시대 이후 기술 분야에서 세계 선두로 올라섰다고 평가. 기술 산업에 대한 시각: 기술 산업의 중요성은 커질 것이나 어떤 기업이 10~15년 뒤 성공할지는 알기 어렵다고 언급. 효율적 산업 구조는 사회에 큰 이익이라는 입장. 마이크로소프트 관련: 빌 게이츠를 뛰어난 경영자로 평가하며 과거 MSFT 100주를 매수한 사실을 언급. 다만 우정과 이해관계 때문에 버크셔가 MSFT를 사면 정보 비대칭 의혹이 생길 수 있어 매수를 피한다고 설명. 이는 본인에게 큰 손실 요인이었다고 인정. 버크셔 해서웨이 관련: 버크셔 주가가 본인과 찰리 멍거가 매수할 수준이 아니라고 언급. 다만 매도 권유는 아니며 매수도 권하지 않는 중립 입장. 이는 투자 전략 질문에 대한 답변. 투자 철학: 본인은 10~20년 뒤 모습을 예측할 수 있는 기업(예: 껌, 콜라, 면도기)을 선호. 기술주는 규칙 변화가 커 멀티플이 소비재보다 낮아야 한다는 입장. 출연자 전망: 기술주는 장기 예측이 어렵고 변동성이 크다는 점을 강조하며, 직접적인 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
I would say this about the Microsoft case that and I've expressed this to a couple news organizations who asked the question earlier 20 years ago this country really had sort of an inferiority complex about its place in the world economic order and and we talked about having a country of hamburger flippers and and we thought we were going to lose our steel industry and our Auto industry and we really didn't quite see how America fit into the into the world where it looked like you know the Japanese and the Germans to some extent all those were were eating our lunch so and that there are many of you are too young to remember that but there are many of you in this room who will remember that and and we were very depressed about our economic situation in this country and then this whatever you want to call it information age or whatever came along uh fueled by technology and we've just swept the world aside I mean it it uh we are so far number one but it's difficult to think who's who's number two so here we have and it's changed in some way it's contributed to a change I should say in in the National mood and and and it's whether what what part of our prosperity is accounted for by it no one knows but I think everybody in the room would agree that it's significant and that age is going to get and that development is going to get more and more important in the years to come it's it's going to be fueling much of what happens in the world and for this country to be the world leader and like I say you can't even see who's in second place and moving faster even to increase that lead with all the benefits that brings you know I think that I think we've got something working very well that that probably doesn't make a lot of sense to to Tinker with too much so I I would I would not I would not want to go in with a meet ax uh into something that is that is pulling this country along in my view in a in a huge way and uh uh I just I don't I don't like to Tinker with success and it's an important success it's really an important success Charlie and I may not understand how to play that in terms of of buying the companies that are going to do well 10 or 15 years from now but we know some companies will do well and we certainly know it'll have a huge benefit to society even if it makes business less profitable but makes the society more efficient I mean that is a huge Edge to have I would love to have the most efficient industry in the world in this in this country even though it might pull down Returns on Capital against the less efficient system so we uh I think neither one of us would be inclined to go in there and and mess around with something that's working I'm not I think wait if you look at the big picture in patriotic terms having lost totally in radios stereos television sets Etc any other places and having lost position in other major industries to the Japanese and others we finally get huge leadership in a new and wonderful field software that's needed all over the Earth and somebody who's drawing a salary from the United States government gets the bright idea the kids should grammatically weaken the one place where we're winning big so the technology sectors of prime interest to me and I think we'll all agree at least last six to eight months has been phenomenal for the technology sector and I also see that you're someone befriending Mr Gates inviting into your house Etc it's our possibility down a road a piece of you doing some type of purchase of Microsoft or acquiring that or is there something you too could work out together I bought 100 shares one of the day first day I met bill you know Bill Gates is you know one of the great managers of all time and uh is an exceptional business Talent who loves his business and when you get that combination uh and a high energy level and uh now an error to leave it to uh I I uh I don't think you do it much better than that uh Bill Gates did a very good job of developing a product that was bundled with millions and millions and millions of PCS it's called Encarta it's actually Funk and Wagner's he hates it when that comes out but they but they changed the name to and Carter which was smart of him and there are a few people in this room who are witnessed to a demonstration uh four or five years ago in Bermuda where in connection with Encarta they've showed the Moon and the Earth and and the moon bumped into the Earth uh in this and I just I I don't know why it sticks in my mind I thought I would have mentioned it today that uh but his his is doing very well so apparently there are a number of people that don't care about the fact the Moon and the Earth Collide but in the world book the Moon and the Earth never bump into each other he's done he's done extremely well within card incidentally I mean it was it was a masterpiece of uh moving into an area and pushing hard and kind of I tip my hat to him but now we're we're gonna yeah we've copied him yeah we copied him and I have rather different bought me one share of Berkshires so that I could learn something about investing we both started about that same time and he has chosen to invest in let's say about 40 different stocks and buying and selling and doing rather well for us frankly my Approach is more simple and um basically I finally figured out last year that I should invest in the companies of the two wealthiest men in the world so I decided we should buy monthly more Berkshire and Microsoft so then this year and so we've been able to do that this year we read in your report that Berkshire is selling at a price at which Charlie and I would not consider buying it so my husband has challenged my investment strategy I know that you are an honest man and while you may not you may not recommend to my partner Charlie to buy more Berkshire at this time do you recommend that I continue my rather automatic investment buying of Berkshire and I wanted I think I know the answer but I wanted my husband to hear it from the horse's mouth foreign we don't recommend selling it but we don't recommend buying it either we we are we are neutral on that subject and I hope I hope you continue to be in with the two wealthiest guys I like the other fellow too thank you never bought Microsoft well in the in the earlier years it's very clear it's the answer is stupidity but the but it uh since bill was predict s bill has joined the board but even even earlier than that because of our friendship it would be it just would be a mistake for Berkshire to buy Microsoft because if something happened a week later a month later in terms of them having better earnings than expected or making an acquisition anything both bill and I would incorrectly but would be would be a target of suggestions and accusations perhaps even that somehow he had told me something or vice versa I stay away from I try to stay away from a few things just totally because the the inference would be drawn that that we might have talked I might have talked to somebody about something so I I've I've told I've told the fellows that Ted and Todd for example that they're just a few things that are off the list because there'd be a lot of people who wouldn't believe us if something good immediately happened after we bought it and of course we the buy a lot of stock you can take six months to buy it or something of the sort uh we just don't need it uh but both that and my stupidity have cost us a lot of money uh it's a very it's a good question and and uh I think I think the answer makes sense Charlie those part of theology the late conversion is better than ever and you've greatly approved yourself technological Revolution ironically our approach to that is is just the opposite of bills but that his his is the right one for the world ours is the right one for me uh I I look for businesses that where I think I can see what they're going to look like in 10 or 15 or 20 years we don't own any but if you take uh Wrigley's chewing gum I I don't think the internet's going to affect how people shoot government you know and Bill Bill probably does I mean but but I I don't think it's going to affect the fact that that the coke will be the the drink of preference and will gain and per capita consumption around the world I don't think it'll change the weather people shave or how they shave or the fact that they like a better better uh shaving system as the Mach 3 is going to be very shortly on my dad the very predictable and and find the very predictable and what build the more exciting things and things are going to change society more and and so I have a little different opinion as a as a member of society I applaud what he's doing and as a as a an investor I keep a weary eye on it and that's uh you know it's it's a different approach to investing most people think about all as opportunity and it has been operating every Internet stock has gone crazy here in in recent months but I don't know how to look at one or the other and and tell the winners yeah I I this is an area I agree strongly with Warren on I think the multiples of technology stocks should be quite a bit lower than the multiples of stocks like Coke and Gillette because we are subject to complete change in the rules you know I know very well that in the next 10 years if Microsoft's still the leader there will have been three at least three crises that we will have had to really prove our uh our excellence in I accidentally once when we were on a panel with the CEO of coke I said something like I couldn't run my business when I get to be 60 because it's such a hard business not like Coke and I I offended him uh without meaning without meaning too you won't offend me I want to be in business I can run when I'm 100 because I plan to do it I'm going to retire about five years after I die Maybe
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