저자: Ala · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론 주식 2018년 매수 여부 분석 영상. 결론: 회사 펀더멘털은 양호하나 무역전쟁·메모리 공급과잉 우려로 지금은 중립(대규모 포지션 진입 보류). 재무·밸류에이션: PER 약 6.4로 업계 대비 저평가 수준, 최근 4분기 EPS 서프라이즈 긍정, 분기 매출·이익 성장(최근 분기 전년比 거의 2배 근접), 현금 약 70억 달러 vs 장기부채 약 60억 달러로 재무구조 양호, 향후 자사주 매입 가능성 언급. 리스크: 최근 1주일 약 10% 하락, 애널리스트들이 내년 메모리 시장 조정 예상. 삼성·SK하이닉스 등 경쟁사의 증설로 공급과잉 우려. 중국과의 무역전쟁 불확실성이 사업(중국 비중)에 부정적일 것이라는 전망, 다만 클라우드 DRAM 매출은 분기 33% 이상 성장. 수요 측면: 스마트폰 판매는 정체·감소지만 AI, 증강현실, 자율주행, 암호화폐 채굴, 고성능 게이밍 수요는 지속될 것으로 봄. AMD·엔비디아 GPU용 GDDR6 양산 개시, 차세대 게임콘솔(PS5·Xbox) 수요 가능성(2019~2020년) 언급. 결론 및 출연자 전망: 회사와 경영진은 긍정적이나 불확실성이 커 현 시점 대형 매수는 보류, 상황 정리 후 재검토 권고. 시청자 의견(강세/약세/중립) 수렴 예정.
다듬은 글
Micron shares, ticker MU, are up nearly 30% year-to-date, nearly 70% year-to-date, nearly 200% in three years, and nearly 300% in 5 years. So, the question remains: Is Micron stock worth buying in 2018? Let's find out. Well, friends, it's time to go back to basics so you can feel cool. Yes. How are you, people?
My name is Ala, and welcome to my world of finance. Today we'll talk about Micron stock, which one of our subscribers asked about. So if you want me to review a particular stock, just subscribe and leave a comment below. Let me know which stock you want me to analyze. Also, don't forget to write in the comments whether you are optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral about Micron shares.
I will tally the results and present them to you in a future video as a shared consensus. But with all that said, let's get started. So, let's start with the company, its business, and its shares. They operate in the electronics technology sector as part of the semiconductor industry with a market capitalization of $61.5 billion and a share price of around $53 at the time of this writing.
The company description says: " Micron Technology Incorporated is engaged in the development and creation of semiconductor memory technologies and data storage systems." It works through the following segments. Computing and Networking Division, Storage Systems Division, Mobile Technologies Division, and Embedded Systems Division.
The Computing and Networking segment includes memory products sold for the computing, networking, graphics, and cloud server markets. The Storage Systems division segment includes memory and storage products for enterprise, client, cloud, and removable storage systems. The Mobile Technology Division segment consists of memory products sold for the smartphone, tablet and other mobile device markets.
And the Embedded Systems division segment encompasses memory products sold for automotive, industrial, networking, home and consumer electronics. Okay, now let's start with some of the pros before moving on to the cons, and then we'll finish with some stock conclusions. Given Micron's amazing performance from a price perspective, you might think it has a pretty high PE ratio.
But in their industry, they actually have one of the lowest PE ratios, and are often considered a very cheap stock given the perfectly reasonable PE ratio of around 6.4. They also had a positive EPS surprise over the past four quarters, although the last two were significantly lower than the previous ones, but overall their EPS has been trending up, although a decline is forecast in the future .
Their income statement also looks fantastic. Every quarter, we saw growth in revenue, earnings, profits, and net income. In particular, last quarter we saw most of these metrics almost double year-over-year . So, this is a sign that the company is having a fantastic year and showing extremely good results.
And even looking at their balance sheet, I'm actually quite impressed. We are talking about cash of about 7 billion, and long-term debt is lower than that —about 6 billion. While accounts payable and short-term debt will certainly add to this, in a stock market where I constantly see weak balance sheets of overvalued stocks, MU's balance sheet looks very fresh and quite impressive.
And this is not something to be taken lightly, because we know: when we have a strong balance sheet, we see share buybacks much more often. So if we see this in the case of Micron, we could definitely expect their EPS and P/E ratio to improve in the future, which would certainly help the stock. Okay, now I'm going to move on to the cons section.
I know I didn't mention anything about what the company does or what types of memory they sell in which markets, but I'm actually going to mix it up a bit with the cons because it'll be easier that way. So give me a second. I will explain everything, what they do and where they work. But as for their financial performance, I just gave you all their data.
They are doing very well. And with such really strong financials, you would expect their share price to be high, perhaps even better than it has been recently . In fact, if you look at the previous week right here, you can see that they're down almost 10% in the last week alone. There are several reasons for this, and several reasons why stocks have n't soared too high yet—one is the looming threat of a trade war with China.
There are a lot of people and a lot of uncertainty. So we'll talk about that in a little more detail in a moment. And another concern is that analysts are skeptical about the memory market, predicting a correction next year. You see, sometimes it happens that when you have high demand—and in this case we're talking about the memory market, where Micron works with NAND and DRAM technologies— then because of the high demand in the memory market, we can sometimes end up with an excess supply .
Many of these companies we're talking about, like Micron, some of their competitors like SK Hynix and Samsung, and other players, are ramping up production at a furious pace. So, if we get an oversupply because everyone is trying to fill that niche and make as much money as possible , we could enter next year with a glut in the market, which could eventually lead to a crash.
The reason analysts are so skeptical and concerned right now is that Micron and some of its competitors that I mentioned are investing billions of dollars—we're talking billions of dollars —in building new plants or upgrading existing ones to significantly increase production. So next year we will see a huge increase in production volumes.
But if you ask my opinion, I'm not quite sure what to think about it yet . Yes, we see that smartphone sales are stabilizing, and in some cases even falling. But if you look at things like artificial intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous driving, maybe even crypto mining, and certainly high- definition imaging and high-performance gaming, these are markets that I don't think are going to slow down anytime soon.
In fact, I think there is significant potential for growth there. So I'm not as convinced as everyone else that we'll see such a terrible supply-demand ratio anytime soon. Continuing on this topic, we know that Micron has announced the start of mass production of GDDR6 memory, which can be used in Nvidia and AMD graphics cards.
It may also be used in AMD's upcoming 7nm Vega and 7nm Navi. By the way, there are persistent rumors that Navi will also be used in upcoming next- generation gaming consoles, such as the PlayStation 5 and Xbox 2. And we can actually expect them as early as 2020, maybe even 2019. So, that's a little more demand, which is actually pretty close.
But even ignoring all these supply and demand concerns, there remains the constant threat of a possible trade war between the US and China. While the situation there is quite uncertain, and we don't know for sure how everything will play out and how it will affect Micron, most analysts agree that it will likely negatively affect the company, as a significant part of their business is related to China.
However, they also predict that this will not affect their cloud segment too much, which is good, because cloud computing DRAM revenue grew by over 33% last quarter. So that, combined with a pretty solid balance sheet, could help them get through all this uncertainty. But there are still many points that we should watch for development.
So we remain in a state of great uncertainty, which actually brings me to a conclusion. Although I think Micron has a very fair value and a great price. The stock is generally considered cheap given its earnings report and excellent performance. With great management constantly improving the balance sheet, I still feel too much uncertainty right now to open a large position in Micron .
Therefore, I am somewhat more neutral than I might be in another situation. I know many of you are very bullish on Micron, and that's perfectly normal. I like a lot of what I see at Micron. I mentioned many of the pros of Micron, and even when I talked about the cons, they also had quite a few advantages.
I certainly like Micron, but I feel like there's too much uncertainty surrounding this stock, especially in a market where the stock is incredibly overvalued right now. I feel like I have to be careful with my investments. I just can't jump into Micron right now. I think we need to take a step back, wait until the situation clears up , maybe do more research to feel more confident about Micron, and then maybe open a position.
But for now, I feel like I have to wait a bit. However, I will definitely keep you updated on Micron. So make sure you subscribe. These are stocks that I constantly monitor, and I'm sure I'll continue to have my own opinion on Micron. So I will definitely be making new videos and keeping you updated.
However, in the end, it doesn't matter what I think - it matters what you think. So please leave a comment below. Let us know if you are bullish, bearish or neutral on Micron stock. And if you have any thoughts about them, I'd love to hear them. There is something to talk about here. I had to cut everything down a bit to make this video easy to watch, but I know there are a lot of topics to discuss regarding Micron.
So I'd love to hear your thoughts. Be sure to leave comments below. Thank you very much everyone for watching. If you want to support the channel, just click the like button. It means a lot to me . Thanks for watching and I hope you have a wonderful, wonderful day. Take care of yourself. See you later.
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