저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴 심층분석 5부작 마무리. 알파벳과의 다세대 커스텀칩 계약 등 수요 강세, 2027~2028년 성장 기대. 매출총이익률은 소프트웨어 혼합 영향으로 하락 압력이나 영업이익률은 유지 전망. 수요는 2028년까지 주문·선결제로 확인되며 공급도 2026~2027년 확보. 현금흐름 상향으로 공정가치 약 498달러 제시, 현재가 약 390달러 대비 저평가로 판단해 하락장을 장기 매수 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
All right, in the fifth and final part of my deep dive into Broadcom stock, we're going to see management's answers to some very insightful questions from Wall Street analysts. And then I'm going to share with you my overall takeaway from Broadcom's latest quarterly financial results, how it changed my fair value calculation for Broadcom, and my rating on Broadcom stock, whether I think it's buy, hold, or sell during this huge sell-off in Broadcom stock.
So, one of the questions Broadcom's management team received is their relationship with Alphabet. Right, Alphabet has been investing aggressively and has building out has been building out their proprietary semiconductor chip for its data centers for many years, and those investments are accelerating and Broadcom is the partner that helps design those chips for Alphabet's data centers.
And the CEO is saying here that it's a very strong agreement between itself and Alphabet. It's a multi-generational product deal, and it's the intellectual property they've they've deployed into the whole program. It's encompassing a very substantial amount of dollars, is what the CEO said without breaking out the specific dollar amount.
Another question they were asked was about their profit margins, and that's something that investors were disappointed with their decline in gross profit margins. And the CFO saying here that you're going to have a decline in margins. You're going to have margin compression. So, the CFO reiterating that this decline in gross profit margin was not a one-off event in this most recently completed quarter, that the gross profit margin will continue to be under pressure because the company's segment that's growing faster is the segment that generates lower gross profit margins.
But the good news is that their operating profit margin, a more comprehensive figure, will hold up relatively well. They've always said that their ASICs, their application-specific integrated circuits, uh some of the wireless business has lower margins. As the TPU part of its business accelerates, there will be pressure on gross profit margins.
But the good news is, as we mentioned, that the margins remain stable and solid. They're not declining. It's just the mix between software and semiconductors that's diluting the gross profit margin. Another thing Broadcom is seeing is less chips, but the average selling price of each up. So, the dollars per gigawatt, dollars per gigawatt is relatively stable, but the number of gigawatts are accelerating.
And the amount of gigawatts required for these data centers, the compute capacity as measured by the number of gigawatts, is growing very fast. And I can confirm seeing similar sentiments from various enterprises that are operating in this AI ecosystem. And that figure has been accelerating just from a few months ago.
So, for Anthropic and OpenAI, the capacity as measured by gigawatt power are way ahead of what Broadcom was expecting just 6 months ago. And if you ask about 2027 or 2028, Broadcom expects that will continue to grow. They expect, in fact, 2028 to be a substantial growth from what they're forecasting in 2027.
And that's great news for AI stock investors, because that's the big fear, right? That we're in a bubble, that the bubble's about to burst any moment now. But what we're seeing from a lot of the companies that are operating in this industry is that demand remains strong not just for this year, not just for 2027, but they're already seeing orders and prepayments for business that's going well into 2028 and so that's great news for investors to hear that if it is a bubble, it's unlikely to burst anytime soon.
And so with demand already expected to be really strong, the question becomes supply. And the management team saying that we're very comfortable that we've been able to secure enough supply for the types of product that they need for their needs in 2026 and 2027. And they're already working on securing supply for 2028 and 2029.
So as you can imagine, a lot of this demand is coming from those that are operating the large language models. You're thinking Anthropic, ChatGPT, and Google's Gemini. These are the large language models that are consuming a lot of the power, a lot of the computing that's being built, the data centers.
So whether it's Amazon building the data centers or Microsoft building the data centers or Alphabet building the data centers or Meta Platforms or Oracle, regardless, it's the large language model providers that are doing the consuming of those data centers. And so Broadcom is developing the custom AI accelerators by use for their customers who are pretty much all LLM developers, whether it's for training or for inference, it's coming from that same source.
And they're also creating a portfolio of critical components to enable these XPUs and even GPUs to be clustered clustered and form better performance. The bigger the cluster, the better the performance. And so that's where demand is coming forward from at from Broadcom. And then the good news is that those large language models they have secured hundreds of millions of monthly active customers.
People are using these large language models more frequently because they offer superior answers to questions, and they offer superior performance to individuals that are just looking for information or doing knowledge work. Now, with agentic AI, it's creating even more demand pulled from these large language models that are helping those agents, those AI agents perform a lot of the tasks that would otherwise be performed by some of these knowledge workers.
And so, overall, I felt it was a fantastic quarter for Broadcom. I increased my expected free cash flow stemming from Broadcom starting from 2027 and beyond. And my up dates caused the fair value calculation that I place on Broadcom to increase up to $498 per share. Broadcom's current market price is just a little under $390 per share.
So, Broadcom stock looks undervalued, especially after I reviewed these quarterly financial results. Broadcom stock looks attractive at these market prices. It's down another 7.2% today, and it was down about 12% the day before. And this is a situation where investors can get an excellent company with great margins, great revenue expectations at an attractive price.
So, to answer the question do I think Broadcom stock is a buying opportunity during this sell-off? I do think it is. I do think it is, and I updated that rating today, June 5th, 2026, after I reviewed the company's financial statements, their earnings release, and their quarterly conference call transcripts, and included those results into my valuation models to determine that it is indeed, according to my calculations, an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors.
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