저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
스탠리 드러켄밀러가 항공주(유나이티드·델타·아메리칸)에 투자한 것을 소개하며 시작한다. 팬데믹 후 여행 수요 회복(2025년 52억 명 탑승 예상), 프리미엄 서비스 확대, 기업 출장 회복을 긍정 요인으로 든다. 반면 항공은 경기 민감 업종이라 경기 둔화 시 가장 먼저 타격을 받는다는 위험도 함께 언급한다. 투자 조언은 하지 않는다고 명시한다.
다듬은 글
all right so uh today let's do a deep dive into something pretty wild this billionaire investor Stanley dren Miller he's betting big on airlines Airlines can you believe it I mean after everything that's happened seems a little counterintuitive don't you think yeah bit so we're going to unpack why this is such a big deal what it could mean for the industry and maybe even for your next flight our main source material today is this article from the mly fool they break down this whole thing oh yeah I saw that yeah so it a head scratcher at first especially when you think about even Warren Buffett you know the Oracle of omfa he got rid of all his airline STS back during the pandemic oh total he basically said the industry is way too unpredictable too volatile exactly unpredictable and volatile so to see someone like dued Miller I mean with his track record remember this is the guy who made a fortune betting against the British pound back in the 90s oh yeah so it makes a Wonder does he see something that everyone else is missing well that's the million-dollar question isn't it it is and to understand his thinking we need to understand who he is as an investor he's not just chasing quick profits or anything he's looking at the long game the big macroeconomic trends things like global economic growth shifts in consumer Behavior even geopolitical events these are the forces that shape his decisions what macroeconomic trends might be driving his outlook on airlines well one key factor is the travel industry's recovery the pandemic was brutal yeah it was Airlines were losing tons of money travel demand just disappeared a lot of experts were predicting a long and painful recovery oh yeah I remember some analyst saying business travel would never fully recover everyone's just going to hop on Zoom calls forever right there was a lot of pessimism at the time but it turns out they were a little too pessimistic okay we're seeing travel demand bounce back even stronger than a lot of people expected really yeah people are eager to get back out there you know explore the world visit family and friends reclaim those experiences they missed out on makes sense the article mentions something like 5.2 billion people are expected to fly in 2025 yeah that's wild that's a huge jump from where things were that is and that demand it means more revenue for the airlines they can rebuild and start investing in growth again but isn't the airline industry known for being kind of cyclical like vulnerable to recessions and stuff oh absolutely airlines are what we call cyclical businesses their performance is closely tied to how the economy is doing when times are good people travel more leisure in business but when the economy slows down travel is one of the first things people cut back on yeah that's true it's a discretionary expense so that makes dren Miller's bet even more interesting it's like he's saying okay I know airlines are cyclical but I'm betting on a strong economic recovery and continued growth in travel demand exactly it's almost a contrarian view it is he's buying into a sector that a lot of other investors are still afraid of he's betting that the recovery is real and that it's going to last compar and it's not just about the number of Travelers either there's another Trend at play here the rise of Premium services okay now this is where it gets really interesting what are these premium services and why are they such a big deal well you've probably seen it yourself when you book flights airlines are offering more and more of these add-ons and upgrades to make the experience a little nicer extra leg room early boarding priority baggage handling even refundable tickets okay things that used to be standard are now premium perks yeah like those basic economy fairs where you basically just get a seat exactly and you have to pay extra for everything even to choose your seat yeah and these premium Services they're making a lot of money for the airlines wow they're tapping into Travelers who are willing to pay more for comfort and convenience well I can definitely see the appeal especially after being crammed into those tiny seats for so long for sure and for business Travelers who are always pressed for time those perks can be worth the extra money so are these premium Services just a way for Airlines to make more money from us or is there something more to it it's a bit of both honestly on the one hand airlines are definitely trying to maximize their revenue but there's also a growing group of Travelers who really value these perks and they're willing to haay for them it's a shift in consumer Behavior okay and it plays right into drunen Miller's investment so this whole premiumization trend is fascinating but before we get too carried away with comfy seats and early boarding let's look at the other side of things the article also talks about some risks and challenges for the airline industry right it's important to look at both sides yeah the bullish and the bearish cases so let's dive into those different perspectives okay so let's unpack this on the one hand hand Airline stocks are looking pretty good right now their price to earnings Ros are pretty low compared to the rest of the market that could mean they're undervalued especially if travel demand keeps growing and these premium Services keep taking off right but like we said airlines are really sensitive to how the economy is doing exactly if the economy takes a hit people start tightening their belts yeah travel is one of the first things to go makes sense Leisure trips get postponed businesses cut back on travel suddenly those planes aren't so full anymore right and that brings up another question is this whole premiumization thing really going to last or is it just a fad it's hard to say for sure I mean will people keep paying extra for these perks when everything is getting more expensive or will we see people start pushing back I mean I get it I like having extra leg room as much as the next person but there's got to be a limit right at some point it just gets too expensive it's a tough balance for the airlines they need to find that sweet spot where they're offering enough value to justify the higher prices but they don't want to scare away customers either okay the article also mentioned something about corporate travel coming back oh right how does that play into all of this so that's another big factor okay during the pandemic business travel just disappeared yeah basically everyone was working remotely doing video calls and that was a huge problem for Airlines because business travels they usually book a more expensive ticket I know those last minute bookings and the premium cabin seat makes sense so is Corporate travel back to where it was before the pandemic not completely but it's definitely growing as economies open back up and companies figure out this whole hybrid work thing we're seeing more and more business travel it's still behind leisure travel but if it keeps growing that could really help the airlines interesting so we've got this surge in travel demand this premiumization trend and the possibility of a corporate travel comeback sounds like there's reason to be optimistic but we can't forget about the risks the economic uncertainty the fact that airlines are so cyclical right it feels like a bit of a gamble yeah there's always some risk when you invest especially in an industry like Airlines so is Dro and Miller right to be bullish on airlines well he's definitely putting his money where his Mount is but even the best investors can be wrong sometimes it's not really our place to give investment advice but we can at least give you the information right and the different perspectives so you can make up your own mind exactly we're not saying go by Airline stocks but we are saying this is a fascinating Trend and here's one of the best investors in the world is doing and here are the things you should think about we have this deep dive it gives you a glimpse into what's happening in the airline industry whether you're a frequent flyer or just someone who's interested in finance and investing understanding these Trends can be really helpful it's about asking yourself where do I think the airline industry is going will these Trends continue or are we going to hit some serbulent and here's something else to think about is this whole premiumization thing is it a passing fad or is it a permanent shift but think about it if more and more people will start paying for these premium Services what's that going to mean for the future of flying right will it become even more divided with a big gap between those who can afford the perks and those who can't that's a great question it makes you think about not just the financial side of things but the social and cultural changes too exactly and it all comes back to Stanley duy Miller and his bet is he just writing a short-term wave or does he see something bigger happening a fundamental shift in consumer expectations and how airlin do business I guess only time will tell but exploring these questions weighing the evidence that's what makes these deep Dives so interesting yeah like putting together a puzzle even if we don't have all the pieces exactly yeah it really makes you think about the choices we make as Travelers are we okay with paying more for a little extra Comfort even if it means you know contributing to this divide on airplanes it's a good point and it's part of a bigger conversation about income inequality and how it shows up everywhere even something as basic is air travel yeah as the gap between the rich and everyone else keeps growing we're probably going to see an even bigger divide in the kinds of services and experiences that are offered not just with Airlines but everywhere so it's like we're moving towards a world where everything has different tears and every experience is based on how much you can spend yeah and that raises questions about access and fairness yeah should certain Comforts and conveniences only be for the people who can afford them right or should everyone have a basic level of comfort and dignity no matter how much money they make it's complicated it is there are no easy answers it definitely adds another layer to things like even just choosing a seat on a plane exactly it's not just about leg room or getting on the plane first anymore right it's about how these choices reflect bigger Trends in society so back to Stanley dren Miller and his big bet on airlines what does it all mean is he just taking advantage of a trend that's going to fade away or is he betting on a fundamental shift in the whole airline industry and maybe even society as a whole that's the big question only Heim will tell how it all turns out true but by looking at these Trends and thinking about the risks and the rewards and having these conversations we can at least start to figure things out for ourselves and make better decisions exactly as Travelers and as people living in this changing world that's what I love about these deep Dives we get to explore these complex issues yeah and challenge our own assumptions and even if we don't always find the answers the process of exploring is value absolutely it's about being curious staying informed and thinking critically because in a world with so much information it's more important than ever to be able to separate the real from the fake well said so as we wrap up this deep dive into Airlines and billionaire investors and the future of travel what's the one thing you want our listeners to take away from all of this I think the biggest takeaway is pay attention to the choices you make even the small ones because they often reflect bigger TR friends and have consequences Beyond just that one choice whether it's deciding to pay extra for leg room or thinking about whether these premium prices are sustainable take a moment to reflect consider the bigger picture and be an active participant in shaping the world you want to live in I like that that's a great point to end on thanks for joining us for this deep dive and to all our listeners out there keep exploring keep questioning and keep those Minds engaged until next time safe travels everyone
Comments 0